AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - SAINTS -11.5 (x4)

St.Kilda and the Western Bulldogs meet in what looks like an elimination final in June? Who would have thought. But this is the reality of this contest. Both top 4 sides over the past 3 years, now clinging on to a slim final 8 chance in 2011. The Bulldogs are really struggling, they showed little glimpses of improvement against the Hawks but were still well beaten, but last week down in Geelong they were a rabble. Geelong did as they pleased, the end margin of 10 goals flatters them.

St.Kilda have shown improvement. Winning 2 of their last 3 and putting up a competitive 1st half last week against the Premiers. Ross Lyon has introduced a number of new players and it has giving this club a breath of fresh air. The move of Dal Santo to the back half has been a good one. BJ Goodard is starting to find touch and Riewoldt always gives his all! The Saints will be without Montagna this week which is a blow but they regain Jason Gram. The Dogs on the other hand have made 6 changes this week! Cooney makes his long awaited return but you have to wonder is he ready? Also ruckman Hudson comes back in. You have to question playing both Minson and Hudson in the same team? The Dogs dropped Hargrave, Lake, Grant, Hill, Wallis and Mulligan. And are still without Barry Hall and Gilbee. Far to many holes for my liking.

St.Kilda has won all 4 matches between these sides over the last 2 years including 2 Preliminary Finals! They seem to have their measure. With the amount of changes to the Bulldogs line up and their recent form, I just cannot see them turning it around tonight. St.Kilda have the better form and seem to be turning the corner. Saints will be to good, they win and cover!

(4.4u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)