AFL : 17-13-0 (+4.48u @ 56.7%)
ROUND 3 - SUNDAY
Hawthorn v Adelaide
ATS -
CROWS +29.5 (x1) LOSS
The Crows are undefeated so far in 2012. Winning the NAB Cup and their first 2 matches of the season proper. While wins against the Suns and Bulldogs is hardly anything to get excited about they are clearly performing a better game plan and seem to be harder at the contest than previous years. Today will be a real test as to where this group sits.
Hawthorn are 1-1, a tough start to the season with both grandfianlists back 2 back. An impressive win over the Pies to start the season was always on the cards but a disappointing finish to last weeks epic clash with the Cats ended in the Hawks first loss for 2012. This will be tough to back up as that clash would have taken a lot out of all players involved.
Hawthorn are still without captain Hodge and Smith will also miss. Sheils is a good inclusion and should cover the loss of Smiths run and carry. While the Crows will miss Douglas but have some great inclusions in Knights and Martin. Hawthorns back half will once again be tested as Adelaide has two big forwards to contain in Tippett and Walker.
In what should be a great match I like the Crows with the 5 goal start to keep this one tight as the Hawks may struggle after 2 taxing matches to start the season.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)
North Melbourne v Geelong
1ST H -
CATS -14.5 (x1)LOSS
Added
*2nd H -
CATS -14.5 (x2) LOSS
(down 21 @ half. GL Cats +6.5)
As with the Hawks, Geelong too has had a tough draw to start 2012. A trip West handed the Premiers their first loss and then that Huge clash against the Hawks last Monday got the Cats back in the winners circle. I do feel this start will take its toll on the players and will need to be switched on early against the much fresher Kangaroos.
North have had a little easier lead up into this match it's fair to say, with a training drill against the Giants in Tassie. Will this help them today? You could argue either way. Sure they will be fresh but this will be a huge change in game style. These North boys won't be able to do as they pleased and will find it a little tougher today.
I think North are on the up but are still a fair way back from the top 5 in 2012. The Cats have to much talent and have the wood on the Roos beating them in their past 7 matches. Due to the tough week the Geelong players endued last week, I like them in the first half today. Last year Geelong were exceptional starters and often put the game out of reach early. I expect that to continue here as the Cats will rack up a big score on the fast track at Etihad! Cats cover the 14 and lead well early.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)
The Celtics are great value here I believe as they are the better side in most areas. Sure they are playing their 4th road trip but due to great list management were able to rest the big 3 against their last win over the Bobcats. In fact Allen, Garnett and Pierce stayed in New Jersey, so have actually had no travel and 2 days rest! As I have stated in the past this is huge for anyone, but the Celtics respond just that bit better with rested legs!
