Welcome all..... I live in Australia and have been punting on Sports for the past 6 years. Looking forward to another sucessful year in 2013...... I enjoyed another sucessful Campaign in 2012 which was my 2nd year posting here. Detailed results can be seen below.

I bet on the AFL , NRL as well as US Basketball, the NBA & NCAA CBB. Here I will post my plays as a record with regular write ups. It is most important that you create a Twitter account and follow me @baywatchbets as all my plays are posted there first then followed up with a detailed post here. Be sure to follow twitter below!!!

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I play on ML, ATS, Quarters, Halves, Doubles and occasionally on Player Exotics. My goal is to hit close to 60%. However 53% will give a nice profit.

I bet in units. Though out the seasons I will play x1 unit, x1.5 units, x2 units and on occasions huge x3, x4 & even x5 unit plays! On average x1 unit should be 3.5% of your bankroll so adjust accordingly. This is very important as we are investing not gambling!

So for example your x1 unit may be to win $100, so I bet $110 @ odds of 1.91. Betting at these odds your unit outlay would be:

x1 unit play - $110 to win $100

x1.5 unit play - $165 to win $150

x2 unit play - $220 to win $200 etc.

I adjust the amount I bet according to the odds taken. for example playing x1 unit @ odds of 1.85 I then have to up my bet to $115 to win $100 and so on.

Patience and Bankroll management is the key.

Good luck all and enjoy the ride....

Monday, September 26

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

NRL GRAND FINAL
MANLY v NEW ZEALAND

ATS - SEA EAGLES -5.5 (x3) WINNER


Write up to follow

(3.85u @ 1.78 @ Sportsbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY x2

AFL GRAND FINAL
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD

ML - CATS (x3) WINNER
DREAMTEAM H2H - J.BARTEL over L.BALL (x1) LOSS


Cats to take the flag and make it 3 outta 5!

Rolling with the inform Cats in today's big dance. Really like the way Chris Scott has managed this team all year with rotating players and it appears he has his side primed for this clash! Baring Stevie J, all players are cherry ripe and in good nick. Impressive wins over West Coast and Hawthorn in the final series and the demolition of the Magpies in round 24 has seen the Cats price go from $2 outsider (which is when I posted this play) to under $1.80 favorites at some bookies!

Geelong's major concern all week has been the fitness of Stevie J and he appears all but certain to play! This is huge for the Cats as whether he is fit or not, will still demand close attention from the Collingwood defense! If he wasn't to play I suspect you could see the likes of Harry O used in a more offensive nature. Johnson's inclusion will limit Harry's impact.

The Magpies appear to also be in the clear of their injury concerns. Jolly and Reid both look likely to play! But are they 100%? I would suggest not. This is a much greater gamble than the Cats are taking with Stevie J as the Ruck and Key Defender positions are much more difficult to cover should either go down or give below par performance's. Ottens looms as the real concern for the Magpies should either of these two not come to play as he is in outstanding touch and a proven big game performer in the ruck then drifting deep forward.

The Collingwood key forwards, Cloke in particular have been dominant all year but the Cats defense of Talor, Lonergan, Enright, Hunt, Mackie, Wojo and lead by Scarlett will prove very difficult to crack! The on ball bregade looks solid for both and should be a classic battle. I also like the Bartel/Ball H2H DT match up. Jimmy is a big DT points accumulator, he loves it in these conditions and has proven he lifts for the big games. Ball I think will receive some close checking and Bartel could avoid the solid tag with Selwood and Stevie J likely to attract more attention. So it's the Cats in a beauty!

CATS by 19pts

Norm Smith tip: BARTEL WINNER
Roughies with value: ENRIGHT & PODSIADLY

(3.0u @ 2.0 @ Sportingbet)
(1.2u @ 1.85 @ Centrebet)

Sunday, September 25

NFL 2012 WEEK 3

NFL 2012: 3-6-1 (-4.15 @ 33.3%)


ATS - RAVENS -5 (x2) WINNER
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

ATS - PANTHERS -3 (x1) WINNER
(1.25u @ 1.81 @ Sportsbet)

ATS - FALCONS +1.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

ATS - CARDINALS -3 (x1) LOSS
(1.3u @ 1.77 @ Sportsbet)

Saturday, September 24

AFL BROWNLOW MEDAL

AFL BROWNLOW MEDAL BETS

Once Today's matches are all said and done, I will be turning my attention to the prestigious Brownlow Medal markets.... Getting in now with one that I believe is a real chance of winning and is way over the odds @  $16  @ Sportsbet. Terrific value as I see Dane polling around 7 best on ground maximum 3 vote games this year. A lot more than the 2 best on grounds he received last year. And with Collingwood winning all but 2 games he is sure to feature in most.

OUTRIGHT WINNER - DANE SWAN (COLL) WINNER!!!!
(Outlaying x2u to win x30u)
(2.0 @ 16.0 @ Sportsbet)

OUTRIGHT WINNER - MARC MURPHY (CARL) LOSS
(Outlaying x1.2u to win x15.6u)
(1.2u @ 14.0 @ Sportsbet)

TOP 5 FINISH - DANE SWAN (COLL) (x4) WINNER
(4u @ $2 @ Sportsbet)

LEADER AFTER RD 12 - D.COX (WCE) LOSS
(Outlaying 0.5u to win x8u)
(0.5u @ 17.0 @ Centrebet)

H2H COX v DAL SANTO - D.COX (x3) LOSS
(2.15u @ 2.4 @ Sportingbet)

Nth MELBOURNE TEAM VOTES - B.HARVEY (x3.5) LOSS
(Outlaying 0.35u to win 3.5u)
(0.35u @ $11 @ Sportingbet)

Thursday, September 22

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

PRELIMINARY FINAL:
GEELONG v WEST COAST


MARGIN - CATS 1-39 (x2.5)LOSS

The Cats time is Now!


Geelong will prove to much for the young up and coming Eagles to withstand on Saturday and advance to their 4th Grand final in 5 years! This is also the Cats 5th straight Prelim Final! Amazing considering the quality of personnel that left Geelong last year.

The Eagles have been outstanding in 2011! Coming from wooden spooners to top 4! But I just feel they may have played their Grandfinal last week. That was a huge effort from the players to withstand the Blues late charge and manage all the knocks and injuries along the way. I still have concerns on how Kennedy, LeCra & McKenzie will pull up. Geelong has one major injury of it's own with young star Menzel out with a knee. This is a big loss as he has added fresh legs and a spark that I believe the Cats were lacking in 2010. Having said that, when you are Able to replace him with a 2 time All Australian and Best & Fairest in Joel Corey your doing pretty well. The Depth of the Cats is top of the class with 3 premiership players, 2 of which are also All Australian named as emergencies. Milburn, Mooney & Byrnes.

One big question for the Cats is can they control the tall Eagles forwards, Kennedy, Lynch, Darling, Cox and Nic Natinui? Tough ask as most teams have discovered this year but with the experience of the Cats Backline that boasts 3 All Australians and all of which are premiership players Scarlett, Enright, Taylor, Hunt, Wocjinski & Mackie, they will hold the forwards at bay.

I expect a real tough tight contest. Hense the reason I have played Geelong 1-39. West Coast have only lost 6 games all year, and only once has it been over this margin (52pts v Collingwood). All the rest have been by 13(SYD), 7(HAW), 16(ESS), 21(STK)& 20(COLL). West Coast will have confidence having beaten Geelong in their one and only encounter this year. West Coast has not won @ the MCG for along time and the Cats have a perfect 7-0 record here in 2011. All bar the Round 24 massacre of Collingwood (96pts) have been close encounters. Margins are 1(STK), 17(HAW), 3(COLL), 5(HAW), 28(STK)& 31(COLL).

I expect the Eagles to throw everything at Geelong but as against the Hawks the class and experience of the Cats will see them advance to the big dance again! The extra week rest will prove the difference against a banged up West Coast.

CATS by 26pts

(2.1u @ 2.2 @ Sportingbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

GRAND-FINALIST 2011

DOUBLE - STORM ML / SEA EAGLES ML (x3) LOSS

Rolling with the teams that finished 1 & 2 to be there for the big dance next week. The Storm for all the reasons stated in previous NRL play.

The Sea Eagles are somewhat flying under the radar with all the Lockyer talk but they are clearly the favorites in this one. The Broncos have been galant and have exceeded my expectations for them for 2010. Quite simply the loss of their leader will prove to big a hole to fill for the young Broncos unfortunately. But to be honest I liked Manly to win even with Lockyer. The extra week off is like gold this time of year. Manly too much class in this one.

SEA EAGLES by 8

(2.85u @ 2.06 @ Sportsbet)

Wednesday, September 21

COLLEGE OFFICIAL PLAY

My 1St COLLEGE FOOTBALL play for 2012

ATS - CLEMSON -2 (x1) WINNER

(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

I will be including my 5th Category "COLLEGE SPORTS" in my 2012 campaign along with regulars AFL, NRL, NBA & the other new category for 2012 NFL.

I will be combining both Football & Bacsketball in this category as my plays will be limited.

Sunday, September 18

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY x2

PRELIMARY FINAL

NEW ZEALAND v MELBOURNE

1ST H - STORM -3 (x2) LOSS
ATS - STORM -6 (x2) LOSS

I'm rolling with the Storm to be far to strong for the some what surprise of the finals the Warriors. Melbourne have had the luxury of an extra week off and are once again playing at their fortress home ground in Melbourne. I do realize the Warriors are perhaps an exception to this as they have had recent success @ AMMI Park.

However the Warriors are in a very bad spot here. Their last few weeks have ticked up some serious frequent flyer points. NZ to Brisbane to NZ to Sydney to NZ now to Melbourne! This has to take it's toll. While the Storm have again having the luxury of no travel during this time.

The Warriors were smashed by the Broncos in the first week of the finals and then came from the dead to steal the win last week against the Tigers. They may have to do much the same here if they want to advance any further as Melbourne are one of the best front running sides in the comp. The Storm Will prove a lot more difficult to score against than the Tigers as they grind their opposition against the wall.

The pure class of the Storms 1,7 & 9 Slater, Cronk & Smith will prove to good and experienced for the extremely young and talented 1 & 7 in particular Locke & Johnson from the Warriors. These two young guns could well be the next star duo but for right now it's the Storms time. Redemption for 2010 is still very much on the Storms minds and I see them jumping out of the blocks and proving far too good for the Young Warriors. Leading @ the half & covering the 6 points.

STORM by 14

(2.25u @ 1.90 @ Sportsbet) x2

AFL / NRL DOUBLE

AFL / NRL PREMIERSHIP DOUBLE


GEELONG CATS / MELBOURNE STORM



(x5u @ $7.2 to win x30u)

NFL 2012 WEEK 2

NFL2012
2-3 (-1.3u @ 40%)

Week 1 is out the way and while on the wrong side of the ledger with a small  loss I am excited the NFL is back! Looking forward to a successful season and a profitable return.


WEEK 2

ATS - COWBOYS -3 (x1.5) PUSH
(1.65u @ 1.96 @ Sportsbet)

ATS - DOLPHINS +3 (x1) LOSS
(1.15u @ 1.87 @ Sportingbet)

ATS - COLTS +2 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

ATS - PATRIOTS -6.5 (x1) WINNER
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

ATS - EAGLES -2.5 (x1.5) LOSS
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Saturday, September 17

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

AFL SEMI FINAL - CARLTON v WEST COAST

MARGIN - EAGLES 1-39 (x3) WINNER

The Eagles return home to host the Blues in tonight's do or die final. Winner advances to the Prelim against Geelong, wile the loser can say goodbye to 2011. The Blues have been struck with a huge blow with gun ball user Bryce Gibbs ruled out! While the Eagles welcome back the smooth moving Daniel Kerr. The Eagles will be out to stretch what is a very small Carlton outfit still missing key big men Kruezer and Waite. Cox, Nick Nat, Q Lynch, Kennedy and Darling will all push forward which will be to much for the Blues to contain.

West Coast have won all bar one match at home this season. Once again turning the trip to West a nightmare for visiting sides! And on the back of a 6 day break the Blues will definitely be up against it. I have taken thee margin 1-39 reasons being the Blues haven been beaten by over 6 goals all year! They are a proud club and I expect with Judd leading from the front they will stay within this margin again.

EAGLES by 20pts



(2.5u @ 2.2 @ Sportingbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - DRAGONS +4 (x2) WINNER

(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

Thursday, September 15

WEEKLY MULTI

Taking a 3 leg MULTI in this weeks Footy finals.... Outlaying x2.6 units for a massive return of just over +40 units!

AFL - MARGIN - HAWKS 1-39 Winner
AFL - MARGIN - EAGLES 1-39
NRL - MARGIN - DRAGONS 1-12 Loss

(2.6u @ 16.70 @ Centrebet)

Sunday, September 11

NFL SEASON 11/12 Week 1

Bring on the NFL 2011-12 Season!

I am adding the NFL to this coming years 2011/2012's Sports along with regular sports NBA, AFL & NRL. This will be the first year I post my plays in this particular sport. I have played the previous 2 NFL seasons with a profit from both. However this is clearly the sport that I am still developing my angles and trends but look forward to the season!

My NFL plays will be included in my 2011/12 season Totals which will be on display at the conclusion of the AFL & NRL seasons. So here is my week 1 plays....

NFL WEEK 1

ATS - STEELERS +1.5 (x1)LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

ATS - TITANS +1.5 (x1)LOSS
(1.15u @ 1.87 @ Sportingbet)

ATS - 49ERS -4.5 (x1)WINNER
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

ADDING:

ATS - COWBOYS +6.5 (x1)WINNER
(1.1u @ 1.95 @ Sportingbet)

ATS - DOLPHINS +7 (x1)LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ELIMINATION FINAL

ESSENDON v CARLTON

ATS - BLUES -16.5 (x3)WINNER

(3.3u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

SEMI FINALS

NEWCASTLE v MELBOURNE

ATS - STORM -10 (x2)PUSH

(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Spootsbet)

Saturday, September 10

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

SEMI FINALS

NZ v BRISBANE

ML - WARRIORS (x1)LOSS

(0.85u @ 2.2 @ Centrebet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ELIMINATION FINAL

STKILDA v SYDNEY

ATS - SWANS +17.5 (x2)WINNER

(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

QUALIFYING FINAL
COLLINGWOOD v WEST COAST

ATS - MAGPIES -29.5 (x2)LOSS

(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Friday, September 9

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

QUALIFYING FINAL
GEEL v HAW

MARGIN - CATS 1-39 (x3)WINNER

(2.4u @ 2.2 @ Sportsbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

SEMI FINALS
WESTS v STGEORGE

ML - TIGERS (x1)WINNER

(0.85u @ 2.2 @ Centrebet)

END OF HOME & AWAY SEASONS

END OF HOME & AWAY SEASONS 2011 RESULTS

AFL: 96-90-2 (+33.21u @ 51.6%)

NRL: 62-49-2 (+11.96u @ 56%)

Saturday, September 3

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

2ND H - SAINTS +2.5 (x2)WINNER
Total game line Saints +13.5

(2.2u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet))

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

2ND H - BULLDOGS -18.5 (x2)WINNER
Total game line -27.5

(2.3u @ 1.88 @ Centrebet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

1ST Q - SAINTS (x1)LOSS

(1u @ 2.00 @ Sportsbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

MARGIN - SWANS 1-39 (x2)LOSS

(1.45u @ 2.4 @ Sportsbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

PLAYER EXOTIC

MOST DISPOSALS H2H - ABLETT over MITCHELL (x1)WINNER

(0.9u @ 2.15 @ Centrebet)

WEEKLY MULTI

Taking a multi thus week as is hard to read just what mindset some teams will have .

WEEKLY MULTI LOSS

AFL - MARGIN - SWANS 1-39
AFL - MARGIN - SAINTS 1-39
AFL - MARGIN - EAGLES 1-39

PUTING x1 UNIT @ $15.23 @ Sportsbet

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

DOUBLE - WARRIORS ML / TIGERS ML (x2)WINNER

(2.4u @ 1.85 @ Sportsbet)