NCAA CBB

NCAA CBB
WEEK #7

YTD: 10-11

TUES
LSU vs Cal Irvine
*UC IRVINE PK (2.05) @ Bet365
Denver vs Wyoming
*DENVER +9 (x1.5) @ Pinnacle

NBA

NBA
WEEK #8

YTD: 47-39-4

TUES
Indiana @ Milwaukee
*PACERS +3 @ Bet365
San Antonio @ Denver
*SPURS +2.5 @ Sportsbet

NBA

NBA
WEEK #7

YTD: 38 - 32 - 3

TUES
New York @ Brooklyn
*KNICKS -3 @ Pinnacle P
LA Clippers @ Chicago
*CLIPPERS -3 @ Sportsbet W

WED
Chicago @ Philidelphia
*76ers -2.5 @ Bet365 L
Sacramento @ Milwalkee / Memphis @ Phoenix
*DBL - BUCKS PK / GRIZZLIES PK @ Sportsbet (x1.5) L
*2nd H - GRIZZLIES -3.5 @ Pinnacle L

THUR
Charlotte @ Atlanta
*BOBCATS +10 @ Sportsbet L
LA Lakers @ New York
*LAKERS +6 @ Bet365 L
San Antonio @ Portland
*2nd H - BLAZERS +7 @ Bet365 (x2) W

FRI
Minnesota @ New Orleans
*TIMBERWOLVES -3.5 @ Pinnacle (x2) W
Utah @ Phoenix
*JAZZ PK (1.86) @ Sportsbet (x1.5) L
*2nd H - JAZZ -5 @ Bet365 L

SAT
Indiana @ Detroit
*PACERS -2.5 (x2) @ Sportsbet W
Brooklyn @ Chicago / Cleveland @ New York
DBL - BULLS PK / KNICKS 1st H PK (x1.5) @ Bet365 W

SUN
LA Lakers @ Philidelphia
*1st Q - LAKERS -1 @ Pinnacle W
Denver @ Sacramento / New Orleans @ Portland
DBL - NUGGETS PK / BLAZERS PK (2.30) (x1.5) @ Pinnacle W

MON
San Antonio @ OKC
*1st H - THUNDER -2.5 @ Pinnacle W
Chicago @ Memphis / Sacramento @ Phoenix
*BULLS +11.5 / SUNS PK @ Bet365 W

WK#7: 9-7-1
YTD: 47-39-4

NCAA CBB

NCAA CBB
WEEK #6

YTD: 8-11

SAT
Indiana @ Butler
*BUTLER +11 @ Pinnacle W
Kent State @ Gonzaga
*GONZAGA -9.5 @ Bet365 W

WK#6: 2-0
YTD:10-11

NBA

NBA
WEEK #6

YTD: 30-23-2

 

TUES
LA Lakers @ Houston
*LAKERS +1.5 @ Pinnacle L
*D.HOWARD POINTS -19.0 @ Sportsbet L
OKC @ Brooklyn
*THUNDER -3.5 @ Sportsbet W

WED
Orlando @ Utah
*MAGIC +8.5 @ Pinnacle W
LA Lakers @ New Orleans
*HT/FT - LAKERS (1.95) @ Bet365 L
*2nd H - LAKERS -3 @ Pinnacle W

THUR
New York @ Miami
*HEAT -7 @ Bet365 L

FRI
Boston @ Philidelphia
*CELTICS PK @ Pinnacle (x1.5) L
Charlotte @ Milwaulkee
*BOBCATS +7.5 @ Sportsbet L
LA Lakers @ OKC
*LAKERS +8 @ Pinnacle W
*2nd H - LAKERS PK @ Bet365 (x2) W

SAT
Golden State @ Washington
*WARRIORS -4 @ Bet365 (x2) P
New Orleans @ Miami
*HORNETS +14 @ Sportsbet L
Utah @ LA Lakers
*2nd H - LAKERS -7 @ Pinnacle L

SUN
Toronto @ LA Clippers
*1st H - CLIPPERS -5.5 @ Pinnacle L
*2nd H - CLIPPERS -7 @ Pinnacle W
Denver @ New York
*1st Q - KNICKS -1.5 (2.00) @ Pinnacle L

MON
Golden State @ Charlotte / Atlanta @ Miami
*WARRIORS -4 @ Pinnacle W
*WARRIORS PK / HAWKS +15.5 @ Sportsbet  (x1.5) W

WEEK #6: 8-10-1
YTD: 38 - 33 - 3

NCAA CBB

NCAA CBB
WEEK #5

YTD: 5-8-0

TUES
Northwestern @ Baylor
*NORTHWESTERN +11 @ Bet365 W

WED
Marshall @ West Virginia
*MARSHALL +6 @ Pinnacle L

THUR
Creighton @ Nebraska
*CREIGHTON -7 @ Pinnacle W

FRI
Harvard @ Connecticut
*HARVARD +9.5 @ Pinnacle W

SAT
Wisconsin @ Marquette
*WISCONSIN -2 @ Pinnacle L

WEEK #5: 3-2
YTD: 8-11

NBA

NBA
WEEK #5

YTD: 22-21-1

TUES
Minnesota @ Sacramento
*TIMBERWOLVES +1.5 @ Sportsbet W
Phoenix @ Cleveland
*SUNS -2.5 @ Pinnacle W

WED
Brooklyn @ Boston
* CELTICS -3 (1.85) @ Pinnacle (x2) L
New York @ Milwalkee
* KNICKS PK (1.83) @ Sportsbet W

THURS
Denver @ Golden State
*WARRIORS +1.5 @ Sportbet W

FRI
Indiana @ Sacramento
*PACERS -1 @ Bet365 W
Denver @ LA Lakers
*LAKERS -5 @ Sportsbet W

SAT
Brooklyn @ Miami / Utah @ Houston
*NETS +13 / ROCKETS PK @ Pinnacle (x1.5) P
Indiana @ Golden State
*WARRIORS -4 @ Bet365 W

SUN
Orlando @ LA Lakers (Player Exotic)
*D.HOWARD REBOUNDS - OVER 10.5 @  Sportsbet W

MON
LA Clippers @ Utah
*CLIPPERS -1.5 @ Sportsbet (x1.5) L

WEEK #5: 8-2-1
YTD: 30-23-2

NCAA CBB

NCAA CBB
WEEK #4

YTD: 4-7-0

TUES
Minnesota @ Florida State
*FSU -3 @ Bet365 L
North Carolina @ Indiana
*UNC +11 @ Pinnacle L

WED
Ohio St @ Duke
* OHIO ST +6 @ Pinnacle W

WEEK #4: 1-2
YTD: 5-8-0

NBA

NBA
WEEK #4

YTD: 17-14-1

TUES
Brooklyn @ LA Lakers
*LAKERS -6.5 @ Pinnacle L

WED
San Antonio @ Boston
*SPURS PK (1.90) @ Pinnacle W
New York @ Dallas
*KNICKS -2.5 (1.95) @ Bet365 L
LA Lakers @ Sacramento
1st H - LAKERS -2.5 @ Pinnacle (x2) L
Brooklyn @ Golden State
*WARRIORS +1.5 (Live) ($2) @ Pinnacle W

FRI
OKC @ Boston
*THUNDER -3 @ Sportsbet L
LA Clippers @ Brooklyn
*CLIPPERS -2.5 @ Pinnacle L

SAT
Philadelphia @ OKC
*1st Q - THUNDER -1 @ Bet365 W
Dallas @ LA Lakers
*LAKERS PK @ Pinnacle W


SUN
Portland @ Brooklyn
*1st H - NETS -4 @ Bet365 L

MON
Denver @ Utah
*JAZZ -3 @ Pinnacle L
New Orleans @ LA Clippers
*2nd H - HORNETS +11.5 @ Pinnacle W

WEEK #4: 5-6
YTD: 22-20-1

NCAA CBB

NCAA CBB
WEEK #3

YTD: 4-4

TUES
Indiana vs Georgetown
*GEORGETOWN +9 @ Pinnacle L

WED
Pittsburgh @ Michigan
*PITTSBURGH +3.5 @ Pinnacle L

FRI
VCU @ Duke
*VCU +5.5 @ Bet365 L

WEEK #3: 0-3
YTD: 4-7-0

NBA

NBA
WEEK #3

YTD: 7-12

TUES
Cleveland @ Brooklyn
*1st H - NETS -2.5 (1.89) @ Pinnacle W

WED
Utah @ Boston / Memphis @ OKC
*CELTICS PK / GRIZZLIES +12.5 @ Bet365 (x2) W
Miami @ LA Clippers
*CLIPPERS PK @ Pinnacle W

THUR
Boston @ Brooklyn
*NETS -3 @ Bet365 W
Miami @ Denver
*NUGGETS -3.5 @ Pinnacle L
*2nd H - NUGGETS -5 @ Bet365 W

FRI
Dallas @ Indiana
*1st H - MAVS +1.5 @ Pinnacle W
Houston @ Portland
*ROCKETS +2 @ Sportsbet P
Atlanta @ Sacramento
*HAWKS -1.5 @ Pinnacle W

SAT
Memphis @ Charlotte
*1st H - GRIZZLIES -2.5 @ Pinnacle (x1.5) W

SUN
Indiana @ New York
*1st Q - KNICKS -2 @ Pinnacle W
Brooklyn @ Sacramento
*1st H - NETS -1 @ Pinnacle W

MON
Milwalkee @ Charlotte
*1st H - BUCK -2.5 @ Pinnacle L

WK#3: 10-2-1
YTD: 17-14-1

NCAA CBB

NCAA CBB
WEEK #2

YTD: 0-2

TUES
Michigan State v Kansas
*KANSAS -3 @ Sportsbet L
Delaware v Virginia
*DELAWARE +6 @ Bet365 W

WED
Wisconsin v Florida
*WISCONCIN +6 @ Pinnacle L

THUR
Illinois State @ Drexel
*ILLINOIS ST +5.5 @ Pinnacle W

SUN
Murray State @ Colorado
*COLORADO -1.5 @ Bet365 W

MON
USC @ ILLINOIS
*ILLINOIS +3 @ Bet365 W

WK#2: 4-2
YTD: 4-4

NCAA CBB

NCAA CBB
WEEK #1

Opening Night
Denver @ Iona
*DENVER +3.5 @ Pinnacle L

MON
Eastern Washington v CS Northridge
*EASTERN WASH +4 @ Bet365 L

YTD: 0-2

NBA

NBA
WEEK #2

YTD: 5-4

WED
LA Lakers @ Utah
*LAKERS +3.5 @ Pinnacle L
Toronto @ Dallas
*MAVS -5.5 @ Sportsbet L

THURS
OKC @ Chicago
*THUNDER -2 @ Sportsbet W

FRI
Cleveland @ Pheonix
*SUNS -3.5 @ Pinnacle L

SAT
Dallas @ Charlotte
*MAVS -6 @ Sportsbet L
Denver @ Golden State
*NUGGETS -2 @ Sportsbet W

SUN
Miami @ Memphis
*1st H - HEAT -0.5 @ Pinnacle L

MON
Milwalkee @ Philidelphia
*76ERS -3.5 @ Pinnacle L
Boston @ Chicago
*BULLS -2.5 @ Sportsbet L
Minnesota @ Dallas
*1st H - MAVS -3.5 @ Pinnacle L

WEEK 2: 2-8
YTD: 7-12

NBA

NBA
WEEK #1

Opening Night
Washington @ Cleveland
*CAVS -5.5 @ Sportsbet W

WED
Denver @ Philidelphia
*NUGGETS +2 @ Sportsbet L
LA Lakers @ Portland
*LAKERS -2 @ Pinnacle L

THURS
OKC @ San Antonio
*THUNDER +2.5 @ Pinnacle W

FRI
Chicago @ Cleveland
*BULLS -2.5 @ Sportsbet W
Indiana @ Charlotte / Miami @ New York
*DBL - PACERS ML / HEAT ML (1.88) @ Luxbet L

SAT
Cleveland @ Milwalkee
*1st H - BUCKS -3 (1.91) @ Pinnacle W

SUN
Philidelphia @ New York
*76ERS +4 @ Sportsbet L

MON
Utah @ Memphis
*GRIZZLIES -5 @ Sportsbet W

WK#1 : 5-4
YTD: 5-4

Hi fellow punters.....

I have taken the past few weeks off to reassess and prepare for my 3rd Campaign posted here on this blog and via twitter. 2012 was clearly not as successful as my 1st posted here the 2011 year. So upon my findings I have decided to take a step back and just concerntrate on 3 sports. The AFL, NRL and US Basketball, both the NBA and NCAA CBB.

Less is more in this instance. These sports work perfectly as the seasons run almost all year round with a break in October.

NBA - Nov - June
NCAA CBB - Nov - March
AFL & NRL - Feb - Sept

I have spent the past month refining my system and analysing the up and coming Hoops seasons which get under way this week so I will be back posting and ready for a huge year.

Goodluck all

AFL GRAND FINAL

AFL

GRAND FINAL

*EITHER TEAM UNDER 15.5 $2.60 (x1.5) @ Sportsbet WIN

Norm Smith Medal picks
*S.BURGOYNE (HAW) $19 @ Bet365
*L.JETTA (SYD) $23 @ Bet365
*S.MUMFORD (SYD) $34 @ Sportsbet
*L.PARKER (SYD) $81 @ Sportsbet

NRL GRAND FINAL

NRL

GRAND FINAL

*STORM PK $1.80 (x1) WIN

Clive Churchill picks
*C.SMITH (MELB) $8
*J.REYNOLDS (CANT) $11
*W.CHAMBERS (MELB) $67

All @ Sportsbet

NFL

NFL

WEEK 4

*RAMS PK $2.20 (x1) @ Bet365
*CHEIFS PK (x1) @ Pinnacle
*BENGALS -1.5 (x1) @ Pinnacle

NCAA CFB

NCAAF CFB
WEEK 4

*MISSOURI +10.5 (x1) @ Bet365 L
*GEORGIA -14 (x1) @ Pinnacle W

AFL

FINALS
WEEK 3

*SWANS 1-39 $2.20 (x1) @ Bet365 W

NRL

FINALS
WEEK 3

*STORM -3.5 (x1) @ Pinnacle W

NFL

NFL

WEEK 3

*PANTHERS -2.5 $1.85 (x1) L
*STEELERS -3.5 (x1) L
*JETS -2.5 (x1) W
*DBL - 49ERS PK / COWBOYS -2.5 (x1) L

All @ Pinnacle

AFL - BROWNLOW MEDAL

AFL BROWNLOW MEDAL

BROWNLOW WINNER
*G.ABLETT (GC) $4.25 (x2) @ Bet365 L

*D.SWAN (COLL) $15 (x0.5) @ Pinnacle L

OTHER MARKETS

TOP 5 FINISH
*D.SWAN (COLL) $2.30 (x1) @ Sportsbet W

ROUND 10 LEADER
*S.THOMPSON (ADEL) $8 (x0.5) @ Luxbet L

HEAD 2 HEAD
*P.DANGERFIELD (ADEL) over T.COTCHIN (RICH) $2.15 (x1) @ Bet365 L

MOST TEAM VOTES
*WCE - S.SELWOOD $2.60 (x1) @ Bet365 W

NFL

NFL

WEEK 2

*GIANTS -6.5 ($1.80) x1 @ Pinnacle W
*RAVENS +3 ($1.83) x1 @ Bet365 W

NCAA CFB

NCAA CFB

WEEK 3

*PENN ST -6.5 ($1.89) x1 @ Pinnacle W

NCAA CFB

NCAA CFB

WEEK 2

*UTAH -6.5 (x1) @ Bet365 L
*FLORIDA PK (x1) @ Bet365 W
*UNC -9.5 (x1) @ Bet365 L
*WISC -6.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet L

NRL

NRL FINALS

WEEK 1

*MANLY PK (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*DBL - COWBOYS -1.5 / SHARKS +12.5 (x1.5) @ Sportsbet L

AFL

AFL FINALS

WEEK 1

*HAWKS 1-39 (x1) @ Sportsbet W
*CATS -20.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*DBL - CATS -5.5 / EAGLES -5.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet L

*FINALS FUTURES - MOST GOALS FINALS
- T.HAWKINS 0.3u @ $6 @ Sportsbet L

NFL

NFL
WEEK 1

*FALCONS -2.5 (x1) @ Bet365 W
*BILLS +3 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*DBL - BEARS -2.5 / PACKERS -2.5 (x1.5) @ Bet365 L

NCAA CFB

NCAA CFB 2012-13

The College Football and NFL seasons get underway this week and this is traditional the beginning of my new campaign. 2012 wasn't the greatest so its fair to say I'm keen on putting that one behind me. These plays will now be tallied in under the 2013 campaign. Let the new year begin!!!!

WEEK 1

*MICHIGAN ST -6.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*TULSA -2 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*ALABAMA -13 (x1) @ Bet365 W

NRL

NRL RD26

*DBL - BRONCOS/RABBITOHS (x1) @ Bet365 W
*DBL - STORM/BULLDOGS (x1) @ BET365 W
*DBL - RAIDERS +6.5 / COWBOYS +12.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet W

AFL

AFL RD 23

*HAWKS 1-39 @ $2.30 (x1) @ Sportsbet W
*CATS 1-39 @ $2.25 (x1) @ Sportsbet W
*MAGPIES -33.5 (x1) @ Bet365 L
*TIGERS -45.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*LIONS -34.5 (x1) @ Bet365 W

AFL

AFL RD22

*TIGERS -8.5 (x1) @ Bet365 W
*LIONS -5.5 (x1.5) @ Bet365 W
*BLUES -66.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*EAGLES 1-39 @ $2.30 (x1.5) @ Sportsbet L
*KANGAS -18.5 (x1) @ Bet365 L
*FREO/NTH Most Goals - D.Petrie @ $3.75 (x1) @ Sportsbet L

NRL

NRL RD 25

*BULLDOGS -4 (x2) @ Bet365/Sportsbet L
*TITANS -4 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*COWBOYS -4.5 1st H (x1) @ Bet365 L
*COWBOYS -2.5/EELS +24.5 @ $1.91 (x1) @ Sportsbet L

AFL

AFL RD 21

*CATS -15.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet W
*BLUES -4.5 (x1) @ Bet365 W
*DOCKERS 1-39 (x1) @ Bet365 W
*KANGAS +21.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet W
*EAGLES -38.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet W

NRL

NRL RD 24

*RABBITOHS -6 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*DBL - TITANS PK / EAGLES PK (x1) @ Sportsbet W
*COWBOYS -3.5 @ $1.85 (x1) @Sportsbet W

NRL

RD 23

*STORM PK / COWBOYS PK (x1) @ Sportsbet W
*BULLDOGS HT/NT (x1) @ Luxbet L
*RAIDERS -1.5 (x0.5) @ bet365 W
*SHARKS/KNIGHTS TGS U39.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet W

AFL

AFL RD 20

*CATS PK (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*DOCKERS +18.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*SWANS 1-39 (x1) @ Bet365 L
*HAWKS -72.5 (x1) @ Sportsbet L
*KANGAS -7.5 (x1) @ Sportbet W

AFL

RD 19

*Nth v WBull Most Goals - Petrie (x0.5) W
*Magpies -16.5 (x1) L
*Swans -17.5 (x1.5) W

NRL

RD 22

*Storm -10.5 (x1) W
*Broncos -3.5 (x1) L
*Tigers -4.5 (x1) W

Site Update

Haven't been able to add picks or write ups here for a while now as I have changed jobs and recently got married. So as you all can imagine I have been pre occupied...

Needless to say this year hasn't gone as I planed. The AFL just isn't happening for me this season which is very disappointing as this is one of my strongest in years gone by. The Multis haven't hit and the US Football basically evened itself out. NBA finished poorly but still ended profitable.Only real highlight has been the College Hoops and this seasons NRL is tracking ok also.

With all my distractions I will not have time to post plays here but will still plug away at both AFL & NRL till seasons end and hopefully hit some form come finals. These plays can be seen on my Twitter feed. Otherwise I will be gearing up for better 2013 Campaign which kicks off  the NFL and College Football in September.

Cheers.....

NRL

Round 16 MNF

Newcastle @ West Tigers
ATS - Tigers -5.5 (x1)
(1.25u @ 1.82 @ SportsBet)

NRL

Round 16 Sunday

Melbourne v Canterbury
ATS - Storm -2 (x1)
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ SportsBet)

AFL

Round 13 - Sunday

GWS @ Melbourne
ATS - Giants +25.5 (x1)
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Luxbet)

Adelaide @ Nth Melbourne
ATS - Crows -18.5 (x2.5)
(2.75u @ 1.92 @ Luxbet)

AFL

ROUND 13 - SATURDAY

WCE @ Collingwood
Margin - MAGPIES 1-39 (x1) WIN
(0.85u @ 2.15 @ Sportsbet)

DOUBLE - MAGPIES PK / CROWS PK (x2)
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Luxbet)

NRL

Round 15 - Saturday

Canberra @ Nth Queensland
ATS - Cowboys -10.5 (x1.5) WIN
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ SportsBet)

AFL

Round 13 - Friday

Geelong @ Sydney
Margin - Cats 1-39 (x1) LOSS
(0.55u @ 2.90 @ SportsBet)

NRL

Round 16 - Friday

South @ Brisbane
Gold Coast @ St. George

DBL - Broncos PK / Dragons PK (x1) WIN
(0.9u @ 2.1u @ SportsBet)

NBA Finals

OKC @ Miami
Game 5
ML - Thunder (x1.5) LOSS
(1.0u @ 2.46 @ SportsBet)

NBA Finals

OKC @ Miami
Game 4
ML - Thunder (x2)
(1.5u @ 2.34 @ SportsBet)

NRL

ROUND 15 - MNF

Melbourne @ Manly
ATS - STORM +4.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.96 @ Luxbet)

NBA FINALS

GAME 3

OKC @ Miami
ATS - THUNDER +4.5 (x2) LOSS
(2.15u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

Round 12 - Sunday

Brisbane @ Hawthorn
ATS - Lions +51.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Luxbet)

Port Adelaide @ Western Bulldogs
Margin - Bulldogs 1-39 (x1) WIN
(0.85u @ 2.20 @ SportsBet)

NRL

Round 15 - Sunday

Penrith @ Gold Coast
Sydney City @ West Sydney

DBL - Titans PK / Tigers PK (x1) LOSS
(0.9u @ 2.11 @ SportsBet)

AFL

Round 12 - Saturday

Richmond @ GWS
ATS - Giants +54.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ SportsBet)

Nth Melbourne @ Gold Coast
1st Q - Kangaroos -8.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ SportsBet)

NRL

Round 15 - Saturday

NZ @ Cronulla
ATS - Sharks +4.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Luxbet)

Parramatta @ Souths
ATS - Rabbitohs -4.5 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.94 @ SportsBet)

NRL

Round 15 - Friday

Brisbane @ Nth Queensland
ML - Cowboys (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

AFL

Round 12 - Friday

St.Kilda @ Adelaide
Margin - Crows 1-39 (x1) WIN
(0.9u @ 2.15 @ Luxbet)

NBA Finals

Game 2

Miami @ OKC
ATS - Thunder -4.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Luxbet)

AFL

Round 12 - Thursday

Carlton @ West Coast
ATS - Eagles -24 (x1.5) LOSS
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Luxbet)

NBA Finals

Game 1

Miami @ OKC
ATS - Thunder -5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

NRL

Round 14 - MNF

New Zealand @ Penrith
ATS - Warriors -5.5 (x1) WIN
Buying 1pt to get under the 6 margin
(1.2u @ 1.84 @ Centrebet)

AFL

Round 11 - Monday

Collingwood @ Melbourne
ATS - Magpies -46.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

AFL

Round 11 - Sunday
Hawthorn @ Port Adelaide
1st H - Hawks -13.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

NRL

Round 14 - Sunday

Gold Coast @ Cronulla
Brisbane @ Sydney
DBL - Titans +12.5 / Broncos +12.5 (x1.5) WIN
(1.65u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

NBA Playoffs

Eastern Conference Final
Game 7
Boston @ Miami
ATS - Celtics +8 (x1) LOSS

NRL

Round 14 - Saturday

Canberra @ Newcastle
ATS - Knights -4.5 (x1)
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ SportsBet)

AFL

Round 11 - Saturday

Fremantle @ Richmond
ATS - Tigers -30.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ SportsBet)

St.Kilda @ Gold Coast
ATS - Saints -43.5 (x1) WIN
U/O - Under 180.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Centrebet)

Sydney @ Essendon
2nd H - Bombers -4.5 (x1) WIN
(Game line Bombers +32.5)
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

AFL

ROUND 11 - FRIDAY

Geelong @ Carlton
ATS - CATS -13.5 (x2) LOSS

Carlton look a shadow of the side that was rated as a premiership threat earlier in the year. They are coming off an embarrassing performance over in Adelaide where Port beat them easily! that statement in itself is hard to fathom. Now they must regroup and face Geelong at Etihad....

Carlton has won just 3 of the past 12 against the Cats. There record also suggests their not great under the roof winning just 2 of past 7 and whats worse is against Geelong at Etihad they are 0-9! Now if your not big on stats which by the way those are very one sided in any ones language, the Blues have added Scotland to their injury list which still contains Murphy, Carrazzo, Laidler and Waite. On the flip side Geelong welcomes back Enright, Hawkins, Corey, Wojo and Motlop! Geelong and Stevie Johnson have started to find form and will go into tonights match full of confidence. Something that is eluding the Blues right now

Cats coming off a GWS win at home. The Blues returning from interstate where they were beaten badly. Everything points to the Cats tonight and I think on the fast track cover this line well.
CATS by 35pts
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

Write up to follow.....

NRL

ROUND 15 - FRIDAY

West Tigers @ Melbourne
ATS - TIGERS -6 (x1) LOSS

Pretty simple here, Storm are hit with Smith, Slater and Cronk missing tonight while the Tigers just have to cover Farrar. The Storm have two new faces in the halves with widdop moving to fullback to cover Billy. Wests are in rare form winning 7 straight! Benji is in great form also. He will prove to much to contain and on the flip side the Storm will sorely miss their play makers.
TIGERS by 14
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
GAME 6

Miami @ Boston
1st Q - HEAT (x1) WIN

2nd H - CELTICS -4 (x1) LOSS
(Game line Celtics +9)

Much like yesterdays game, Miami are in a do or die situation facing the Celtics in Boston. This crowd will be deafening! Miami know they must get off to a good start and try and eliminate the crowds influence. Will they win the game? I'm not so sure. My gut feeling is come the last quarter the Heat my feel the pressures and the experienced Celtics will get on top.

But for me I like Miami to start well and lead at the first change. Their may be value after this on Boston.
(1.1u @ 1.94 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL - GAME 6
San Antonio @ OKC
1st Q - SPURS +1.5 (x1) WIN


Its fair to say the Spurs have been stunned these past 3 games. After putting on a clinic in game 2 and being in complete control of the series up until that point the Thunder have gone Bang! winning the next 3 straight and the latest and most important game 5 in San Antonio!

Tonight is do or die for this Spurs team and they must bring it tonight. Its a tough ask to beat  OKC in their own building and to be honest I'm not sure they will. That crowd is one of the most vocal I have ever seen. When the Thunder get on a roll and they will, they just go nuts! The younger stars on the Thunder side really get a lift from this and I think they  may take this one SU. Will they cover? that's the big question.

Either way I think were in for a cracker tonight and the Spurs know they must get on top early. They must eliminate the home crowds influence and not let the Thunder get on a roll. So in saying that I have stuck with the Spurs 1st Q, this time getting +1.5 start. I played this last game and was looking good until OKC went on a 18-6 run in the last 5min or so. The Spurs must contain this and they know their best chance in this game is to be in front or at least right with them early.

Spurs will take it to OKC tonight in the opening 1st, 2nd and maybe even 3rd quarters but eventually I think the Thunder break away and off the back of the home crowd win.
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Centrebet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL - GAME 5

Boston @ Miami
ATS - CELTICS +8 (x1) WIN

With the series tied at 2-2 I feel Boston has the upper hand right now. Many expected Miami to just push the Celtics aside an move right onto the NBA Championship. Not so easy. Bosh has been missing which has really hurt, he is a chance to play tonight which I feel either way has created a distraction that Miami really didn't need right now. If he plays he will be rusty and Miami will need to re adjust everything they have worked on these past 4 games without him. If he doesn't well the thought that he may would have been on the Miami players minds these past 48 hours. Either way I don't like it.

Boston clearly has the upper had and momentum right now. They have just tied up the series, won the past 2 matches and what is most important to me is Ray Allen has got his tough back! This changes everything. If Ray can heat up again look out Miami. If not they will be wary either way from his form last game so he is sure to spread the defense which creates more space for Rondo to work in. He has been the player of the series for me. He is confident he can dismantle Miami's Defense and will do so again here.

While I do expect Miami to be ready tonight and possibly win, I don't think they have it all their own way. Boston with all these points is to good to pass up as they could surprise and pinch this one.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL - GAME 5
OKC @ San Antonio
1st Q - SPURS -1.5 (x1) LOSS
3rd Q - SPURS -3 (x1) LOSS

The series is tied 2-2 after some impressive performances from the Thunder on their home floor. What was most impressive last game was the output they recieved from their "other guys". Ibaka and Perkins shot 22 of 25 from the field! Are you serious! this is unheard of and I can promise you will not happen again.

I like the Spurs to bounce back strong tonight. They are back in their building where they have gone 34-5 su and 29-9-1 ats. Not to mention they are 8-1 ats coming off a loss when returning home. I have taken the 1st Q spread which may surprise as OKC are generally fast starters. But in fact they are not as dominant on the road where they are -0.2pts compared to San Antonio +4.4pts at home. After looking back at the series so far the Spurs have trailed at the 1st change only once, 2 leads, 1 tie and 1 behind.

I think this experienced group will set the tone here early and get the momentum back in this series. Spurs lead and cover the bucket after the 1st quarter tonight.
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Sportsbet)
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

NRL

ROUND 13
MNF
Cronulla @ Paramatta
ATS - EELS +6.5 (x1) WIN
(1.25u @ 1.83 @ Centrebet)

I have had an awful time over the past month and this week was another bad one! dropped around x10 units! Just cannot get going lately. I am going to take a more cautious approach over the next 3-4 weeks just until I find my feet again. Sorry guys to all those who follow.

Bright side is for the year we are still in front but well back from the position we were in some 4-5 weeks ago. NBA is coming to a close then the focus is solely on AFL and NRL. Of those two the NRL has been steady but in the AFL I just cannot get going..... Frustrating! If some of you who followed last year recall it was the league which started off terribly but I did turn it around and ended up with a profit. Looking to do the same in AFL this year.

Looking to bounce back strong!!!

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

GAME 3
Miami @ Boston
ATS - HEAT +3 (x1.5) LOSS
2nd H - HEAT -3.5 (x1.5) WIN

Miami travel into Boston with the Celtics facing a must win game. Boston threw all they had at Miami last game and lead by as many as 15 through out the 2nd Q. With the game going to overtime and Miami finally prevailing despite the efforts from Rondo! That was one of the best performances I have seen.
I know this is do or die for the C's and they are back at home but I'm very concerned on the energy this group has used so far. Coming off a tough 7 game series the C's looked tired game one. 100 times better in the second but still failed. Now they must back it up off one days rest with all the starters playing monster minutes. Add to this Ray Allens clear injury struggles as well as Pierce. This sides depth is being tested with Bradley out already.

Something just tells me Miami has withstood Bostons best shot and their younger stars will have more energy down the stretch of this one. I like Miami tonight.
(1.7u @ 1.87 @ Pinnacle)
(1.7u @ 1.87 @ Sportingbet)

AFL

ROUND 10

Richmond @ St. Kilda
ML - SAINTS (x2) LOSS

The Saints are quietly moving along nicely sitting 5-4 with wins over Carlton and Sydney in the past 3 weeks impressive. But its the Tigers who are catching all the headlines of late, especially after demoralizing the Hawks last week. Still they are just 4-5 all be it against some tough opposition. But no they have to deal with something very unusual for the Tigers, expectation. They are now expected to win and have gone from the hunter to the hunted.

The Saints are Richmond's bogey team, no question. The last Richmond win over the Saints was way back in 2003! the did manage a draw at the G last year but here at Etihad the Saints have won their past 11 straight over the Tigers! St.kilda has an outstanding record here under the roof and the Tigers simply do not! If this was played at the MCG it would be a completely different story.

I cannot go past those figures alone, but like I said earlier the Tigers are now dealing with this expectation that is foreign to them. Coming off such a high last week could see a let down tonight against the unheralded Saints. Take St.Kilda SU tonight.
Saints by 21
(2.2u @ 1.90 @ Sportsbet)

SATURDAY

GWS @ Geelong
ATS - GIANTS +76.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 Centrebet)

Nth Melbourne @ Hawthorn
MARGIN - HAWKS 1-39 (x2) LOSS
(1.65u @ 2.2 @ Sportsbet)

Adelaide @ Fremantle
ATS - CROWS -8.5 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Carlton @ Port Adelaide
ATS - BLUES -17.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

NRL

ROUND 13

Nth Queensland @ Gold Coast
ATS - COWBOYS -3.5 (x1) LOSS

Taking the Cowboys here, I simply feel they are a better side. Gold coast has notched up a few wins of late and have been competitive but now this North Queensland side is at full strength and having dealt with origin will win here on the  Coast. JT and Bowens combination will have the Titans pack on their heels especially after having to contain the Cowboys giants.
Cowboys by 14
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

St.George @ Manly / Newcastle @ Brisbane
DBL - DRAGONS PK / BRONCOS PK (x2) WIN

Taking a double here as I really like Manly at Brookie against the Dragons. StGeorge are awful away from home and are really struggling to put up  any points. I think this will be a close encounter as the Dragons defense is still one of the best. So Manly just to win for me.

Add to that the Broncos at home up against the out of sorts Knights. This one will get ugly I feel. The line has blown out from -10.5 to -13.5 and more at some books. Much the same as the Cowboys here, The Broncos are now over Origin one and have their full squad ready to roll. Broncos by plenty!
(2.45u @ 1.82 @ Sportingbet)

SATURDAY

Sth Sydney @ Canterbury
ML - RABBITOHS (x1) LOSS
(1.2u @ 1.85 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALGAME 3

San Antonio @ OKC
ATS - SPURS +4.5 (x2) LOSS

The Spurs have been completely dominant in not just this series so far but for the entire post season. Clearly they do not get the praise the deserve. Winning 20 straight is unheard of in this league! Yet despite all that they go from -5 fav at home to +4.5 dog on the road? Really? Sure most expect OKC to get back in this or more so to grab a win at home but have you seen this Spurs team?

I'm not sure theirs much more OKC can do to be brutally honest. Their Big 3, KD, Westbrook and Harden stepped up last game and recorded 88pts between them! These are huge numbers especially against the Spurs! What they need is more production from their bench and these guys to heat up yet again. Big ask....

Plain and simple this Spurs team if anywhere near their best will beat anyone anywhere! I will say this, If OKC are ever gonna win a game and get beck in this series tonight is their night, But @ $1.60 or -4 ?the Books have over adjusted here for mine. Spurs are the value and could quite easily make it 3-0! happy to grab 4.5 start!
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

GAME 2
Boston @ Miami
ATS - CELTICS +8 (x1) WIN

Well the Celtics clearly weren't ready for the well rested Heat in game 1 coming off a tough game 7 just days earlier. Rest is more important to this older C's team than just about any other. I'm sticking with  my original assessment though in that I believe Boston can make a series of this. Alot went against Boston in that first game, I expect a few things to go their way tonight.

Garnett was the only Celtic to produce anything in game one as we expected we would in the absence of Bosh. Ray Allen was a shadow of his former self, Rondo looked tentative and Peirce was just off his game. Add to that those tech fouls and its no wonder the Heat won so convincingly. I expect the Celtics to be much better prepaid for this one.
Peirce, Allen and Rondo will be ready and I expect at least 2 of the 3 to give KG some much needed support on offence. I also think Miami may be getting a little ahead of themselves. James was seen taunting and laughing at the expense of KG and the Celtics at the death of game one. Didn't they learn anything from last year? Dirk sure made them pay.
Expect the C's to have the fire in belly and be ready! Not sure if they can tie the series but expect this one to be much closer!
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTI #8

Risking x1u to win just under 7u

*NRL - COWBOYS -3.5
*AFL - SAINTS PK
*AFL - HAWKS 1-39

(1u @ 7.80 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

GAME 2
OKC @ San Antonio
ATS - SPURS -4.5 (x2) WIN

OKC had their chance last game and took it right to the Spurs as I thought they would. Being 9 points up in the 4th really should have won the game. But as a quality side does the Spurs rallied and took over the game. If not for a meaningless Harden 3 at the buzzer would have also covered the spread. This was their chance, they blew it. Spurs will be ready come game 2!

Durants influence was well curbed by Wallace and he looks the most likely to get this monster job for the rest of the series now. Durant still got his shot but Pop would have loved what his man did out there. The Spurs were off last game all bar the final quarter. They were off their shot, didn't crash the boards and turned the ball over way too many times. This wont happen here.

I think the Spurs regroup and realize this was one that they stole. As I stated earlier, this was OKC best chance to steal a game on the road in game one. Game two will go very different. Spurs respond and win well tonight.
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

GAME 1

Boston @ Miami
ATS - CELTICS +8.5 (x1.5) LOSS

Boston will go into this series with a fair amount of confidence having beaten Miami in their past 3 encounters. Sure that was only the regular season, post season is a whole different ball game but its 3 zip either way you look at it. Miami will be well rested and ready, while the Celtics had to guts out a win in game 7 to get past the 76ers and be here tonight. This is a big  advantage for Miami.

However I see many areas tonight that favour the visitors. Firstly Bosh is still missing, This is huge against an inform KG and hard at it Bass. I see these two guys playing a huge roll for the Celtics tonight whole will now be up against Turiaf and Anthony.... Need I saw more.

Another area and a big factor is at the point. Miami's biggest issue in their 2 year existence as this group has been the ability to stop an elite point guard. Rondo is exactly that! He is in great form posting yet another triple double last start and will be the difference here tonight. His ability to work on Miami's weakness and create the best shot for his team will keep this game close.

Miami clearly has the 2 best players on the court James and Wade. The question is can they carry this team yet again? after 3 outstanding games to wrap up the series against Indiana and plenty of rest maybe? But the Defense of the Celtics is far more superior than that they faced against the Pacers. Allen and Pierce are yet to really get going also.

Alot to like about the Celtics tonight especially getting 8.5pts start. Celtics keep this one close tonight in a low scoring affair.
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

OKC @ San Antonio
ML - THUNDER (x1.5) LOSS

Game one of the Western Conference Final. This series should be awesome! I really like OKC's chances here to catch the Spurs off guard in game one. San Antonio are in great form no doubt but they haven't had much of a challenge so far this post season. Utah and an injured Clippers team really? Compared the the Thunder who have swept last years Champs Dallas and dealt with an extremely tough match up in the Lakers. Two very experienced playoff teams. This would have hardened Oklahoma and given them the world of belief and confidence that their time is now!
OKC are a tough match up for the Spurs. Durant the most obvious will prove to much for the rookie Lenayrd. Then it will be up to Wallace who is a good defender but can he match it with KD all night? Durants length will test the whole spurs defense tonight. If he gets going look out!
Then theirs Westbrook who's match up with Parker could define the series. Parker has been is career best form while Westbrook is capable of beating anybody. This is one to watch. I like Perkins and Ibaka to frustrate Duncan and Blair defensively and that's all they need to do. These guys have been huge in these playoffs and held their own against the Lakers bigs. This challenge is just as tough but I see them matching.
The real wild card for mine is Harden. He comes in off the bench and will have the Spurs second unit to contend with. Manu, Wallace, Diaw etc. The Spurs bench production has been one of their strengths and now if Harden can match them and he will give them plenty to think about I like the Thunder to steal one here and turn this series on its head!
I see real value @ $3.00 plus in the Thunder to win SU tonight. 5pt start is sitting on the fence as this isn't enough of a start to feel safe as so often in close games this line gets blown out in the last 90 seconds. Go for the value! Thunder win by 6!
(0.65u @ 3.3 @ Betfair)

AFL

ROUND 9
SUNDAY
Brisbane @ Nth Melbourne
1ST H - KANGAROOS -11.5 (x2) WIN

The Kangaroos were good for 3 1/2 quarters last week but failed badly in closing out the game. Port got on a roll and stole it from 32pts down in the last. North have now put in 2 bad games in a row and have felt it through out the media and internally. I expect a huge effort from this club at home against the Lions.
Brisbane don't play well here under the roof in Melbourne and North should be able to get things back on track. I like the Kanga's to be full of energy and make a statement to their fans, their coach and the general public early.
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

Carlton @ Melbourne
ATS - BLUES -49.5 (x1) WIN

Carlton couldn't have draw the Dees at a better time. In much need of a win and to put an end to a couple bad games in a row I like the Blues to do some damage today against the win less Demons. The Blues clearly play their best footy at the G and will get back on the winners list today. I just can't see the Demons keeping this under 10 goals.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

West Coast @ Fremantle
1ST H - EAGLES -8.5 (x2) LOSS

Freo were awful last week in Tassie and now return home to face the Eagles in the much hyped Derby! West Coast were cruising last week in beating the saints but eased up at the finish. I like the Eagles to flex their muscles and beat Freo today.

The Dockers have been terrible starters so far in 2012 while West Coast are the opposite. They get off to a flyer putting the game in their control early more often than not. Going by this trend I like the Eagles to again come out firing and cover the 9pts in the 1st half today.
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

NRL

ROUND 12
Nth Queensland @ West Tigers
ATS - COWBOYS +4 (x1.5) LOSS

North Queensland are in great form right now sitting firmly in the top 4. JT, Scott, Tamou and Tate are all backing up from origin and I think they are a real show against the inconsistent Tigers on the road today. The Cowboys have done well so far this season playing away from home and I like the size of their pack and those coming off the bench to really test the Tigers.

Wests will have Farrar backing up but with again more shifts in the playing positions with Ryan moved to the centres to allow Utai back on the wing. They also have yet another change in the halves with Ashford now playing 5/8 along side Benji. With all this I think the more regular combo's of the Cowboys will get the win. Take the points
(1.5u @ 2.0 @ Pinnacle)

OTHER GAMES

Sydney City @ Cantebury
ATS - BULLDOGS -3.5 (x1.5)
(1.6u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Philadelphia @ Boston
ATS - CELTICS -5.5 (x1.5) WIN

Game 7, played in the Garden, winner advances to the Eastern Conference Final where the Heat are waiting. Quite simply I cannot see Boston losing this one. KG has turned back the clock with his form in this years post season, he lives for these games. Pierce and Allen are yet to really make a big splash in this series, tonight could be the night and Rondo is still the key to it all. When he is on he is unstoppable. With the cast he has around him I expect tonight he brings his top game to the table. While the Sixers have been impressive, they will struggle to keep their emotions in check.

On the road will prove to big an ask. Experience and rest are the two key factors that are in the Celtics side tonight. Boston advance, they win by 14 here.
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

AFL

ROUND 9
Early one for round 9 as I see this price moving. Both Reid and Swan will miss for the Pies. Write up and more to follow....

Collingwood @ Adelaide
ATS - CROWS -11.5 (x2) LOSS

As stated above I jumped on this line nice and early as was sure it would move. It has but not as badly as I thought out to -13.5 now. I would still take this!

Adelaide are in red hot form! its as simple as that. Sanderson has given this group a licence to take the game on and they look stronger and fitter than ever! Dangerfield is one who has really relished under this new approach as he is the perfect prototype for Sanderson's run and carry style game plan.
The Crows have lost just one game so far under their new coach including the NAB cup! this is extraordinary. I did rate this side in my AFL preview and stated they had the potential to get the jump on the comp as West Coast did last year and boy have they ever!

Collingwood have steadied after a rocky start no doubt and have won their past 5 straight. They are coming off an impressive win against last years Premiers also. However Bucks cannot catch a trick with more injuries hurting his side. This time its the Brownlow Medalist Swan and All Australian defender Ben Reid! Two crucial players in this line up. Collingwoods back six looks very thin with Tarrant, Brown and now Reid missing. Now the midfield has taken another hit after losing Ball earlier in the year.

with this many injuries to cover, facing the inform team in the comp on the road is a mighty tough ask! Crows win and win well here in front of a packed house at AAMI. Footy is back in SA and the Crows are leading the revival! Crow by 34pts
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Hawthorn @ Richmond
1st H - HAWKS -11.5 (x1) LOSS

I've taken the Hawks here to start well against the Tigers at the MCG in what looks to be a close match up. Hawthorn like Collingwood have got their season back on track after a few hiccups early in the year and are coming off a big confidence boost thumping the Dockers in Tassie last week. Richmond while competative once again failed against the Bombers in a cracker.

Richmond have been close on a lot of occasions this season and one would think they will start to win these sorts of games but not today. Grimes out  is a big loss as Buddy will now be left up to Rance. This will allow Roughead to take the next rall defender which is???? Your guess here is as good as mine.
Unless the Tigers can beat the Hawks well in the Midfield their Back six will be exposed badly! Hawthorn are one of th better starting sides while the Tiger simply are not. They continue to allow their oppositon to take big leads and mount a comeback in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I see this trend continuing today. Hawks lead well at the main change and go on with it!
HAWKS by 42
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

Sydney @ St.Kilda
ML - SAINTS (x1) WIN

Lenny Hayes 250th. Saints will lift for this one. Etihad is their favourite ground by a country mile! The Saints play this ground as good as anyone. Real advantage for the Saints here. Sydney do not play well in Melbourne. However MCG is where they struggle the most. The Saints have shown signs of improvement and will up and about for this one. No Ruckman other than Kosi hurts but they are lucky as Mumford is out also. Saints win a tight one for Lenny tonight!
(1u @ 2.0 @ Sportsbet)

Essendon @ GWS
1st H - BOMBERS -34.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)


OTHER GAMES
*1ST H - EAGLES -8.5 (x2)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTI #7

Risking 0.6u to win 4u LOSS

NRL - RABBITOHS -11.5 W
AFL - CATS 1-39 W
AFL - CROWS -13.5 L

(0.6u @ 7.61 @ Sportingbet)

NRL

ROUND 12
Canberra @ South Sydney
ATS - RABBITOHS -11.5 (x1.5) WIN

The Bunnies are full of confidence right now winning their past 3 on the trot. They have regained Burgess and will have both Inglis and Taylor back up from Origin. The Raiders who would have gained a little belief from their narrow win against the Eels last week have now been dealt a blow with gun fullback Dugan and flyer Ferguson ruled out for disciplinary reasons.

Bunnies win this in a canter for mine 13+
(1.7u @ 1.87 @ Centrebet)
DBL - STORM ML / DRAGONS ML (x1.5) WIN

Taking a double here with the Storm at home to beat the Broncos on the road minus some of their stars. Melbourne have a terrific record at home and against the Broncos here in particular winning 12 of  15 and 11 of 14 in Melbourne. Brisbane just don't travel this far south to well.

The Broncos will be without Thiaday and Hodges but will get Gillett and Hannant back while the Storm has the luxury of all 3 stars playing in Slater, Cronk and Smith as they usually do. Brisbane also welcomes back Wallace from injury which is huge for them but I expect him to be a little rusty especially on the road and against one of the best in Cooper Cronk. Storm bounce back and get the win here.

The second leg is the Dragons at home against Paramatta. St.George has been a showdow of the once dominant side in the comp so far this year and have lost their past 3 with the most recent 2 by a single point in extra time! I just feel they stop the rott here at WIN Jubilee and will be to strong for the 16th placed Eels.
(1.4u @ 2.07 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Boston @ Philadelphia
ATS - CELTICS +2 (x2) LOSS

Boston look to have stamped their authority on this series with an impressive performance in game 5. What will please Rivers the most is the output his team received from Bass. This took a lot of pressure off the big 3 and was a blessing as both Pierce and Bradley were not 100%.

I like the Celtics to close out this series here and get some valuable rest into their older guys. With just one game standing between them and another Eastern Conference final, They will get it done. The Sixers while have been good, they are just not quite ready. They have had trouble stopping the Celtics Bigs Garnett and Bass. While Rondo continues to do as he pleases.

Phili's home record overall is good but their recent form here is questionable at 8-15-2 ATS. Against Boston they are just 4-8 SU. The Cream rises to the top tonight. Boston take over this one and advance.
(2.15u @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle)

Miami @ Indiana
ATS - HEAT -2.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Pinnacle)

NRL

STATE OF ORIGIN
GAME 1
*NSW BLUES +6.5 (x1) LOSS

This has to be the best chance the Blues have had in a number of years and they will go into tonight's game with some confidence on the back of last years series. Sure they lost the series but did manage to win one game and kept QLD to just 16 and 8 points in the first two games of the series. That is a huge effort against the scoring power QLD posses.
A few areas I really like with the Blues this year is Carney for one! I already suspect the Maroons are a little nervous about this guy. He is in red hot form, on par if  not better than when he won the Daily M a couple years back. Carney adds that real X factor and going by what he has done for the Sharks this is a great selection by Rick.

Carney will be joined in the halves by Pearce. These two guys now each other very well having played 2 seasons together at the Roosters so I get the feeling Mitchell will now feel more at home in his role in the Blues jumper with his good mate along side him. The other factor I like is Farrar and Stewart. The #1 and #9 positions are crucial in today's game. Farrar offers a little more speed and flair which will keep Smith on his toes while Stewart gives that also but has he experience behind him. The backs of Stewart, Hayne and Uate looks very dangerous. And if T Rex can capture his form look out!
The Blues have opted for the more mobile pack and will be out to run the big QLD forwards off their feet. I expect them to target big Petro as while he has been a champion of the game I just feel this selection may come unstuck. QLD are a class side and deserve to be favourites, But I really like the Blues chances here to pinch game one in Melbourne. Take the points. (6.5 is huge compared to 5.5)
(1.13u @ 1.89 @ Centrebet)

Man of the Match Exotics
*CARNEY 0.2u @ $9
*FARRAR 0.05u @ $19
*TAMOU 0.05u @ $51

NBA PLAYOFFS

Indiana Pacers At Miami Heat
ATS - PACERS +7 (x1) LOSS

Miami responded in game 4 and tied the series just as I expected they would. However nothing is coming easily for this team right now minus Bosh. Le Bron and Wade both had huge nights and also put up huge minutes to get the job done. Add to this Haslem finally came to play. Is this what is required to win for the Heat?
Just as my angles were last game I didn't expect Wade to have 2 straight poor games, well I'm not sure both James can now replicate those numbers back 2 back here in game 5. Pacers are a good solid all round side. They will be ready. Hibberd was limited last game with foul trouble and that opened the door for Miami to attack the basket. If he can limit those fouls and spend more time in the middle the Pacers are a big show here. Either way I like the points on offer as I see this one being tight.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA

Philadelphia 76ers At Boston Celtics
ATS - CELTICS -5 (x1.5) WIN

Boston and the big 3 return home after letting one get away last game. The Celtics were over run by the Sixers and could do little to stop the rot. Well now they are back in their home stage and will come to play the full 48 mins here tonight. The few days rest is a blessing for this side. The C's get it done win this one well!
(1.7u @ 1.89 @ Pinnacle)

Los Angeles Lakers At Oklahoma City Thunder
ATS - LAKERS +8 (x1) LOSS

The Lakers have all but thrown away 2 crucial games in this series. After getting smashed in game one where it was obvious they were just not prepared, they have actually looked the better side in the past 3. However have just one win and trail 3-1. Now Kobe and his crew must saddle up yet again and face the Thunder on the road. I like what I have seen from LA in these last 3 games and feel they have worked out how best to limit OKC on offense.

 Kobe isn't done just yet. They push this one to the wire. Take the points.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NRL

ROUND 11 MNF
Cronulla @ Canterbury
HT/FT - BULLDOGS (x1) WIN

The Bulldogs were awful last week and the Sharks brilliant in beating the Storm but yet I like the Dogs to bounce back and take this one!

The Dogs were spanked by the Titans last week and with some of their players snubbed for Origin one I expect a huge showing tonight. Ennis and Barba could feel hard done by having missed Origin selection and should be out to prove a point. I also expect Hasler would have told this group in no uncertain terms that last weeks performance was not acceptable. He'll have the Dogs ready.

Cronulla will be with out their two most important players tonight with Gal and Carney on Origin duties. These two will simply be to hard to replace. I have loved the work so far of the Sharks but with out their captain and star in the halves I struggle to see them coming up with enough points to beat what should be a fired up Bulldogs team.

I still expect a close encounter as Cronulla are a tough defensive side but like the Dogs to come out with a bang early will the sharks get use to life without Carney and Gal. Dogs to lead early and hold on and win a close one. Half time full time for me.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Centrebet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Miami Heat At Indiana Pacers Game 4

1st Q - HEAT (x1) LOSS
2ND H - HEAT -3 (x1) WIN
ATS - HEAT -1.5 (x3) WIN

I'm really big on Miami to respond and turn up here in game 4. Down 2-1 the Heat will not want to return home for do or die game 5 with the series on the line. Embarrassed in game 3 with Wade having his worse game in years. So far they have gotten absolutely nothing from Chalmers, Miller, Jones, Battier and just about everyone other than James for that matter! Sure Bosh is missing and he doe offer a solid 3rd option but it's time to adjust!
Revenge, bounce back whatever you want to call it, Heat get it done here! I also like Miami to once again come out of the blocks strong!
HEAT BY 12

(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Sportsbet)
(3.3u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)
(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

RD 8 CONT

Gold Coast @ Western Bulldogs
ATS - BULLDOGS -34.5 (x1) WIN
Bulldogs play at least one game up in Darwin each year and have won their past 4 games. They are clearly use to the conditions and the ground and have confidence playing in the Top End. On the back of last weeks form I like the Dogs to be to good for the undermanned Suns team tonight. Gold Coast will be without Bock, Harbrow, Brennan and Swallow for this one. To many key players missing for mine.
Bulldogs by 45
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

Melbourne @ Sydney
2nd H - SWANS -27.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

SUNDAY

GWS @ Brisbane
2nd H - GIANTS +27.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

Adelaide @ Carlton
2ND H - CROW +6.5 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.88 @ Sportsbet)
STKilda @ West Coast
DBL - CROWS +38.5 / EAGLES -1.5 (x2) WIN
MARGIN - EAGLES 1-39 (x2) WIN
(2.3u @ 1.87 @ Centrebet)
(1.6u @ 2.25 @ Sportingbet)

NRL

ROUND 11
Penrith @ Nth Queensland
ATS - COWBOYS -4.5 (x1) LOSS

Tough round this week with all the Origin stars missing. Nth Queensland you could argue are hit the hardest, missing they leaders JT and Scott. Add to this Tate and Tamou also. But this team is very deep this year and still have a very strong pack with Dallas Johnson, Cooper, Taumalolo and the Sims brothers. I expect all to step up.

JT is a hard one to replace but Thompson has been solid in his role and Bowen will rise to the challenge. They Panthers managed to get a much needed win at home last week but now on a short turnaround travel to Townsville. This will be a shock to the system coming from the bitter cold in Penrith. With Lewis missing and Burns in doubt I see a big let down here for the Panthers.

Cowboys by 14
(1.2u @ 1.85 @ Centrebet)


Sydney @ Manly
ATS - SEA EAGLES -5.5 (x1.5) WIN
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTY #6

Risking x1u to win x5u LOSS

AFL
1. KANGAROOS -13.5
2. HAWKS 1-39
3. W.BULLDOGS -24.5

(1u @ 6.3 @ Centrebet)

AFL

ROUND 8 - Saturday

Nth Melbourne @ Port Adelaide
ATS - KANGAROOS -15.5 (x2) LOSS

I'm really big on the Kangas today, after last weeks performance against the much hungrier Dogs, North have copped a pounding, Both through the media and internally. Scott hasn't tries to sugar coat his feelings towards his groups last display and I guarantee the would have felt it this week on the track!

The Kangas have a great record against Port winning 6 of past 8 and last 3 straight by and average margin of 47pts. They just seem to have their measure and put them away convincingly. Port are in a bad spot here, returning from the dreaded Perth trip and on a short turnaround having played the late game Sunday and now cop the early game Saturday.

Alot of my key factors point to a good Kangas win today. Bounce back, recent head 2 head, schedule factor, better overall side. Kangas win well today!
North by 38pts
(2.2u @ 1.93 @ Sportingbet)

Fremantle @ Hawthorn
DBL - KANGAROOS -11.5 / HAWKS 1-39 (x4) LOSS

I have also doubled this up in a separate bet that was too good to refuse @ $4. I like the Hawks today also to get the win in Tassie against the Dockers. Hawthorn has won 5 of its past 6 against the Dockers and 7 of past 8 here at Aurora. They play this ground extremely well. I was surprised to read that Freo has played in Tassie 7 times. But not surprised they have come away with just one win from these games by a single point.
Hawks win but I think under Ross Lyons new style they keep the Hawks honest. Hawks under 40 for value here.
(1.3u @ 4.01 @ Centrebet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Boston @ Philadelphia
1st Q - 76ERS -0.5 (x1) LOSS
2ND H - 76ERS -4.5 (x1) WIN

This is a must win for the Sixers here, pretty simple. They are down 2-1 in the Series and if they are 3-1 down after today heading to Boston it's goodnight season 2012! Phili were outclassed last game as I thought by a more hardened and experienced team who were simply more desperate when it mattered. Tonight's its the Sixers who have their backs to the wall and simply have to produce.

Can they win? Sure, but I think tonight's game is line ball. But what I do know is Phili will come out strong and with the crowd behind them will want to start well. They are ranked well in 1st Q starts at home and the Celtics not so well on the road. During the Sixers great run early in the season they were typically great starters and have lead 2 out of the 3 games in this series. I like the Sixers to have the edge after the 1st tonight.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)
(1u @ 2.0 @ Pinnacle)


ADDED
OKC @ LA Lakers
1st Q - LAKERS -0.5 (x1) WIN
(1.15u @ 1.86 @ Sportingbet)

San Antonio @ LA Clippers
ATS - SPURS -5 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

AFL

ROUND 7 - FRIDAY NIGHT

Geelong @ Collingwood
ATS - CATS +6.5 (x1) LOSS

The Grand final rematch! But both sides are clearly not playing as well as they'd like. Geelong was handed its biggest defeat in about 2 years at the hands of the Crows. While the Pies have quietly strung together 4 win on the trot it must be noted 3 of these were against Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Port. Still winning form is good form.

I have this game as a pick with some nice angles leaning towards the Cats. Geelong has won 10 straight at the G and it last 3 over the Magpies Including last years GF! So they will have confidence knowing they can beat them. The Pies will have that revenge factor but Geelong is coming off a big loss and have been questioned by everyone. Not the time you want to face Geelong.

Both have great inclusions with Thomas, Jolly, Dawes and Fasolo for Collingwood and Bartel, Scarlett, Stokes and Big O for the Cats. This pretty much evens itself out I would have thought. However Bartel back for the Cats is massive! He tore up the Pies in the GF and always lifts for these types of matches. Its also James Kellys 200th, Geelong win these big milesone matches.

For me the fact Geelong has such an outstanding record at the G and coming off a blow out gives them the edge. Cats win a close one. Take the points.
Cats by 10
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

OTHER MATCHES
*KANGAROOS -15.5 (x2)