Welcome all..... I live in Australia and have been punting on Sports for the past 6 years. Looking forward to another sucessful year in 2013...... I enjoyed another sucessful Campaign in 2012 which was my 2nd year posting here. Detailed results can be seen below.

I bet on the AFL , NRL as well as US Basketball, the NBA & NCAA CBB. Here I will post my plays as a record with regular write ups. It is most important that you create a Twitter account and follow me @baywatchbets as all my plays are posted there first then followed up with a detailed post here. Be sure to follow twitter below!!!

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I play on ML, ATS, Quarters, Halves, Doubles and occasionally on Player Exotics. My goal is to hit close to 60%. However 53% will give a nice profit.

I bet in units. Though out the seasons I will play x1 unit, x1.5 units, x2 units and on occasions huge x3, x4 & even x5 unit plays! On average x1 unit should be 3.5% of your bankroll so adjust accordingly. This is very important as we are investing not gambling!

So for example your x1 unit may be to win $100, so I bet $110 @ odds of 1.91. Betting at these odds your unit outlay would be:

x1 unit play - $110 to win $100

x1.5 unit play - $165 to win $150

x2 unit play - $220 to win $200 etc.

I adjust the amount I bet according to the odds taken. for example playing x1 unit @ odds of 1.85 I then have to up my bet to $115 to win $100 and so on.

Patience and Bankroll management is the key.

Good luck all and enjoy the ride....

Monday, April 30

NRL

RD 8 - MNF
Penrith @ Newcastle
ATS - KNIGHTS -8.5 (x1) WIN

Newcastle will welcome back their skipper Gidley for this one and also hand a lifeline to Big Willie Mason! Boyd is a class act and is due for a big one.I expect the Knights to be up and about and keen to get their season rolling. They have faced some tough opposition recently with their last 3 losses at the hands of Melboune, StGeorge and Manly.

Penrith have been awful winning just 1 of the past 5 over the Eels. Jennings is back but still to many holes and up against what I think will be a Motivated Knights group could be in for a long night.
Knights by 20.
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Betfair)

Sunday, April 29

NBA

PLAYOFFS 1st ROUND

Boston @ Atlanta
ML - CELTICS PK (x1.5) LOSS
(1.35u @ 2.10 @ Betfair)

ADDED
2ND H - CELTICS -3.5 (x3) WIN
(3.3u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)


Utah @ San Antonio / Denver @ LA Lakers
DBL - JAZZ +16.5 / LAKERS PK (x1.5) WIN
(1.5u @ 2.01 @ Sportsbet)

AFL

RD 5 SUNDAY

Sydney @ Hawthorn
MARGIN - HAWKS 1-39 (x1) LOSS

Sydney will travel to Tassie today to play the Hawks in a home away from home game for them. Hawthorn has an incredible record down here winning their past 7 straight! Hawthorn have added their inspirational skipper Luke Hodge for his first match of the year which will give them a huge lift. Birchall, Breust and Puopolo are also back which gives the Hawks close to their best line up this week.
Sydney receive Goodes back from suspension this week but their big ruckman Mumford will miss again and has been ruled out for up to a month. Rohan is also out for the rest of the year after breaking his leg last week. While the Swans have been very good to start 2012, 4-0. Today is their biggest test. I feel they will close the game down as usual but Hawthorn have to much talent and play this ground very well. The Hawks who are also returning from Perth so I like the 1-39 margin here.
Hawks by 17.
(0.8u @ 2.25 @ Pinnacle)


West Coast @ Richmond
ATS - EAGLES -18.5 (x2) LOSS


Richmond host the undefeated Eagles today under the roof at Etihad. The Tigers have been good to start 2012 and have clearly improved. Last weeks gallant defeat against the cats down in geelong would  have taken its toll  on this young group and I suspect a letdown is coming.

West coast has won its only match in Melbourne this season here under the roof comfortably. I see this as a big miss match with the Eagles bigs. Cox and Nic Nat will run rings around Maric and Vickery, While Rising star nominee Grimes and improving youngster Rance will be way out of their depth against the Eagles forwards Kennedy, Lynch and Darling.
West Coast are a much  better side and will put on a show today in perfect conditions under the roof.
Eagles by 35.
(2.2 @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

NRL

RD 8 - SUNDAY

Cronulla @ Canberra
ML - SHARKS (x1) WIN


Taking the Sharks today taking on the Raiders in Canberra. Cronulla are sitting in 3rd spot right now and behind the Storm and the Broncos are the next best side form wise in the comp. Canberra have had a disastrous start once again. With to many injuries and the constant forced changes to their line up they just cannot get settled. Dugan is rumoured to be back for this one which will boost the home side but on form the Sharks are value here.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Sportingbet)

NBA

PLAYOFFS DAY 1

Philadelphia @ Chicago
1st H - BULLS -4.5 (x1) WIN

Chicago finished the season as the No1 ranked team in the East. A remarkable achievement given the injury issues this club has faced. Well tonight they host the 76ers and Rose is ready to roll. Phili who started the season on fire have some what limped into the playoffs. They even suggested they prefer to face the Bulls over Miami. I guarantee you this will be used as fuel and Rose and his Bulls will be out to make a statement in game one early! Bulls get the jump and take game one at home!
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)


New York @ Miami
ATS - KNICKS +9 (x1) LOSS

I just hate to lay to many points, especially in the playoffs. Miami giving away 9 here just feels to much. New York has been in terrific form since Woodson has taken over and Melo in particular has found his touch. If he gets going again tonight anything could happen. Wade and Bosh are both back from injury which isn't ideal. Wade I think will be fine but it's Bosh who concerns me. Returning from a hamstring complaint is always touch and go. He will have to contend with Stoudamire and Chandler on the glass so he is a very important piece to this team. Either way I like the Knicks to be competitive tonight and fight out a cover.
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Pinnacle)

added
Orlando @ Indiana
*2ND H - PACERS -8.5 (x1)
(1.1u @ 1.95 @ Sportingbet)

Friday, April 27

AFL

RD 5 SATURDAY

PLAYER EXOTIC
GWS @ Western Bulldogs
MOST DISPOSALS - M. BOYD (x1) LOSS

This bet is for Matty Boyd to be the leading dispoal gatherer for the match. Coming off a down game by Boyd standards I expect him to bounce back strong here against the young Giants. Without a recognised tagger Boyd will have a field day here. 40+ is a real possibility.
(0.75u @ 2.30 @ Centrebet)

ADDED
Western Bulldogs @ GWS
2ND H - GIANTS +33.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

Gold Coast @ Nth Melbourne
1ST Q - SUNS +20.5 (x1) WIN
(0.9u @ 2.10 @ Sportsbet)

OTHER MATCHES
*HAWKS 1-39 (x1)
*EAGLES -18.5 (x2)

NRL

RD 8 FRIDAY

Manly @ Canterbury
ML - BULLDOGS (x1.5) LOSS


Des Hasler faces his old team here tonight in a match I suspect all the Sea Eagles players would have circled at the start of the year. I expect emotion to play a part here early but for mine Hasler will prove the difference. He would know these guys inside and out. Hasler will pin point any weaknesses this Manly side has and he will know them all.

Foran is out which is a huge blow. While both Stewarts brothers are playing I wonder if they are 100% I suspect they would have played this one either way but this could come back to bite them. Canterbury have been solid all year and have an even spread across the park. In what should be a close and physical contest I like the Bulldogs. Hasler gives them that edge.
Bulldogs by 6.
(1.35Uu @ 2.10 @ Centrebet)

Other games
*SHARKS PK (x1)

NBA

FINAL DAY!

Denver @ Minnesota / Portland @ Utah
DBL - NUGGETS -2.5 / JAZZ PK (x1.5) WIN

In whats a tough day to pick who will actually turn up and what teams are already on leave I like both Denver and Utah to play the season out! Denver is still looking to secure the 6th seed and must win to hold off Dallas. If they end up finishing 7th will face OKC instead of the Lakers. Big difference there so I expect a solid effort against the Timberwolves who put the cue in the rack a while ago now.

The Other I like is Utah to carry on their winning form and it appears they will line up fairly strong tonight against the Blazers who are done for the year with Aldridge, Batum and Pryz all missing. I think the Jazz get this one at home.

Teasing these teams with PYOL feature.
(1.7u @ 1.87 @ Centrebet)

Thursday, April 26

NBA

NBA: 126-125-10 (+9.90u @ 50.2%)

Washington Wizards At Cleveland Cavaliers
ATS - WIZARDS -3 (x1) WIN

Rolling with the inform side here and believe it or not Washington has won 4 in a row! Beating Chicago and Miami both on the road. It must be noted that those teams were resting stars but wins are wins.

Both teams here have nothing to play for obviously, and with Clevelend to be without Irving yet again will have no drive or real leader on the floor tonight. John Wall is in great form hitting 3 straight double doubles! His is forming a nice relationship with Nene and with the addition of a few more pieces this team will be in the playoff hunt sooner rather than later. They are a step or two ahead of where Cleveland are at this stage and will want to carry on their good form and finish this season off on a high! (1.1u @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle)

Wednesday, April 25

NRL

NRL : 19-11-1 (+9.28u @ 63.3%)

ANZAC DAY
St.George @ Sydney City
ATS - DRAGONS -5.5 (x1) LOSS

St.George has an imposing record over the Roosters and look all that more dangerous with Cooper back in the line up! The Dragons have got the groove back after a hiccup a few rounds ago while the Roosters have gone from bad to worse! They were embarrassed last start against the Cowboys up in Darwin losing 50-12! Ouch!

For mine the Dragons just look far more settled and deciplined. The Roosters Ball protection is just awful! Dragons cover this and win well!
Dragons by 13+
(1.2u @ 1.84 @ Centrebet)

New Zealand @ Melbourne
ATS - STORM -5.5 (x1) WIN
Melbourne are just flying right now, 7-0 to start the season! New Zealand are clearly not. They are just far to inconsistent from week to week. However they have typically lifted for matches against the Storm and have proven to be somewhat of a "Bogey" side for the Storm. Most recently knocking them out of last years finals!
Not today though! Melbourne will be well aware of their current record and will not have forgotten last  years result.

Melbourne are just so clinical in they way they go about it. They are the highest ranked side for completion rate this season. When you put that up against the inconsistent and sometimes erratic warriors, its points to nothing but a solid win the the Storm.

New Zealand will be sweating on Johnson and big Manu here also as both are trying to overcome injury niggles for this one. But Melbourne at home get the win tonight.
Storm 13+
(1.2u @ 1.84 @ Centrebet)

Tuesday, April 24

NBA

NBA: 124-124-10 (+7.39u @ 50%)

Phoenix @ Utah
ATS - JAZZ -4 (x3) WIN

With the season coming to an end it has been difficult to find value or more so which teams are actually motivated and will turn up to play! I was very nearly going to pull up stumps for the regular season and get into the playoffs but quickly changed my mind with this match up!

Utah currently holds the 8th seed in the West and are just a game clear of Phoenix. In order to hold and secure this playoffs birth, the jazz must win one more game and the Suns must in turn loss one more game. Now these teams just happen to match up here tonight. Utah will be all guns blazing here tonight to lock in that 8th spot! Playing at home and in great touch will get it done!

The Suns have made a gallant effort in their past month to reach this position but will just fall short I'm afraid. Phoenix really needed to win its last match in Denver to have any real chance as after tonight's match here in Utah they face the Spurs. Good Luck there. In the match up stakes, Phoenix looks to be without Frye and Hill here which is huge as to much will be left to Nash and Gorat on the offensive end.

Utah are just to deep and can hurt you from many different angles. Jefferson is in great form, while Millsap and haywood have been terrific! Utah has won 23-8 here at home and with a team full of confidence will get this one and advance to the Playoffs!
(3.2u @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle)


Miami @ Boston / Sacramento @ Oklahoma City
DBL - 1st H - CELTICS / 1st H - THUNDER (x2) LOSS
Taking a different approach here with this one. Miami are once again opting to rest their big 3 and the remainder of their team just don't cut it. Boston will have KG and Pierce back and possibly Rondo. Either way I like Boston at home to take advantage of this depleted Heat side early and lead at the half.
I'm pairing that up with the same idea here with OKC on the rebound from a loss to the lakers in a game the really should have won after being 18pts clear in the 4th! Harden will miss but this team has plenty of depth and are strong starters, especially at home. The Kings are all but done for the year, they may not have Cousins due to suspension and are a terrible starting team and even worse on the road.
I like both Boston and OKC to be leading at the half tonight!
(2.0u @ 2.0 @ Sportingbet)

ADDED
Miami @ Boston
2nd H - CELTICS -4.5 (x1.5) WIN
(1.65u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

NBA

Detroit @ Indiana
1st H - PACERS -4 (x2) LOSS


The Pacers have already secured the 3rd seed in the East with Atlanta dropping last nights game to the Knicks. So effectively can look to the playoffs. I feel though with the disappointment of their last loss to the Sixers will be keen to get back to their winning ways and head into the Post season in good touch.

The Pistons have nothing to play for here either and will not lay day easily. I like the Pacers to get control of this game early and cover the half spread. I see them easing up towards the finish but still get the win. Pacers to start well tonight.
(2.1u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

Sunday, April 22

NBA

New York @ Atlanta
ATS - HAWKS -2.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.05u @ 1.98 @ Pinnacle)

New Orleans @ Sacramento
2nd H - KINGS +2 (x2) WIN
(2.1u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

Houston @ Miami
2nd H - ROCKETS +3 (x1) LOSS
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

RD 4 - SUNDAY

Richmond @ Geelong
ATS - CATS -33.5 (x2) LOSS


Geelong will play it's first game of the season at its home ground in Geelong. This is  a big occasion as the club will get the opportunity to send off its recent retired greats and also unveil the 2011 Premiership flag! Coming off an uncharacteristic loss last week to the Kangaroos I expect this proud group to be seething!

Richmond are coming off their first win of the yeay as they took care of melbourne last week and will feel some what confident about todays match having performed very well here against the Cats in the NAB Cup. Now that is only a practice match but still wins against geelong down here are few and far between.
Geelong has an impressive record against the Tigers having won 15 of its past 16! the last 2 games have been blow outs by 50 & 100+ points! Geelong needs to improve in many areas none more so than its contested ball! this is an area the Cats have set the standard in previous seasons and I expect a big lift from the midfield group of Selwood, Bartel, Corey, Christensen, Chapman etc.
With the occasion set, Playing at home coming off a loss, their recent record against the Tigers and a little revenge from that NAB Cup game I see noth but a strong showing from the Cats today. They will be back to their best and keen to make a statement. Geelong win this one well!
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTI #2 LOSS

Outlaying 0.5u to win 3.33u
1. Richmond @ Geelong - CATS -32.5 L
2. Nth Melbourne @ Sydney - SWANS 1-39 W
3. Richmind @ Melbourne - BULLDOGS PK W

(0.5u @ 7.46 @ Sportingbet)

NBA

Philadelphia @ Indiana
ATS - PACERS -4.5 (x1) LOSS
Indiana requires just one more win to clinch that 3rd seed in the East! Huge achievement from this club and this seed is exactly what the want. The opportunity to get Orlando in the 1st round minus Dwight. Indiana has been on an incredible run winning 7 in a row and 11 of their past 12!
Even though Phili finally broke through for a win last start over the Cavs, this team is really struggling at the wrong time, winning just 3 of their past 10! The Sixers have all but got the final 8th seed in the East due to the Bucks faltering also and are now in a tough 5 game road trip to finish the season. I expect Indiana to get the job done at home here tonight!
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Saturday, April 21

AFL

RD 4 - SATURDAY

GWS @ Adelaide
ATS - GIANTS +90.5 (x1) WIN

The Giants showed improvement last week and actually covered against the eagles! Sure the game was over by quarter time and West Coast clearly took their foot off the peddle in the 2nd half but it was still an improvement. I expect the same thing to occur here against the Crows.

Adelaide will come out strong and as the Eagles did put this one to bed early. With Port up next I expect Bickley to put his troops away and have that game in his sights. With that and the weather expected to be wet I like the Giants to squeeze out another cover and stay within the 15 goals offered.
Crows win this one by 65pts
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Hawthorn @ West Coast
ATS - EAGLES -4.5 (x1) WIN

As I stated above the Eagles were well rested last week and went through not much more than a training drill. Woosha clearly had these hawks on his mind and prepared beautifully! West Coast has actually had the easiest draw to start 2012! With wins over the Bulldogs, Demons and Giants. This one will be a big step up.
Hawthorn on the other hand has done well sitting at 2-1 with wins over Collingwood and Adelaide and only just losing to the Cats. So their opening 3 weeks has been a real test. All this without their Captain Luke Hodge who will miss yet again. He leaves a big hole in this team but the main area of concern for Clarkson has to be these Eagles Big men. Cox and Nic Nat in the ruck is to big a task for Hale and Roughead, who really aren't starting ruckman. Then when either of these guys is resting down forward who takes them? West Coast already has Kennedy, Lynch and Darling up there. This is a real concern for the Hawks.

With the rest alot of these Eagle got last week and with Hawthorn having to travel on a six day break over to Perth I think the eagles are primed for this one and will be to good at home.
Eagles by 23
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Pinnacle)

ADDED
PLAYER EXOTIC
Brisbane @ Gold Coast
MOST DISPOSALS - GARY ABLETT (x1) LOSS

This is for Ablett to lead a group of 8 players selected by Sportsbet including
Black, Rockcliff, Hanley, Raines, Brennan, Swallow and Rischitelli.
(1.25u @ 1.80 @ Sportsbet)

NBA

NBA: 123-120-10 (+10.66u @ 50.6%)

Boston @ Atlanta
ATS - HAWKS -6.5 (x1) LOSS
Boston will be playing their 6th game in 8 nights here as they travel to Atlanta in what looks to be a preview of the opening round of the Playoffs. Well the teams may be the same but the Players tonight are anything but! Boston with Rondo and Allen already missing with injury, but news in also is they are resting KG and Pierce also!

So Boston has effectively given up on home court advantage and will settle for the 5th seed but this move. Smart though for the long term as these guys have had a tough stretch over the past 8 days and with injuries too 2 of the key players as it was it would have been tough to win on the road tonight anyway.
Atlanta have finally found some form of late and will gladly take Boston to the sword tonight with double revenge and the Playoffs in mind. Jumped on this line as soon as it opened and I'm glad I did as its now blown out to -10.5 and even -11 in some books! Hawks win well tonight!
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

FRIDAY NIGHT

Fremantle @ St.Kilda
ML - DOCKERS (x1) WIN

Fremantle are yet to prove themselves on the road and in particular here under the roof at Etihad winning just 3 of 21. While St.Kilda are right at home on this ground and against the Dockers in particular winning their past 8 matches! But things are different now....

All those wins was with Ross Lyon in charge. He is now conveniently across the other side of Australia coaching these Dockers against his old chargers. Would anybody know the ins and out of the saints players better? Sure Watters has brought his own game plan and is in the process of turning this side into his own, but its still very early days and Lyons inside info will be the difference in this one.

The Saints 2-1 record is a little flattering given those wins were against Gold Coast and the Bulldogs. Lets not forget their loss was to Port. Freo has had wins over the Cats and Lions and a loss in Sydney so much more formidable opponents. After Round ones results of Freo defeating Geelong and St.Kilda losing to Port I wonder what the line would look like?

Call this a gut feel but I like Freo to break their hoodoo and get that win in Melbourne here. They are at full strength and with Lyon in their corner are very Juicy @ $3.20 offered.
Dockers by 9
(0.5u @ 3.2 @ Betfair)
OTHER GAMES FOR RD 4
*GIANTS +90.5 (x1)
*EAGLES -4.5 (x1)
*CATS -33.5 (x2)

Friday, April 20

NRL

NRL INTERNATIONAL TEST
Australia @ New Zealand
ATS - KANGAROOS -8.5 (x1) LOSS

Australia takes on the All Blacks in New Zealand. Even with the Home ground advantage I can't see anything but a comfortable win for the Aussies. New Zealand has won just 5 of 30 tests against the Australians and have lost both math ups here @ Eden Park.
Australia has made a few forced changes since these sides last meet with Australia winning 20-10. With Cronk now wearing the 7 and JT taking Lockyers number 6.  Taylor starts and Tamou Debuts. Other wise its a very familiar squad. Smith will captain the side and he along with Melbourne teammates Slater and Cronk will cause plenty of head aches for the Kiwis.

New Zealand have been forced to change the halves pairing yet again with Johnson debuting for the injured Foran. Hoffman will also debut at the important fullback spot. While I love these two players and think they have enormous talent this is a huge step up from 1st grade and the Aussies will no doubt target them both tonight.

The Australian pack is a very daunting sight and I can't see New Zealand matching them. Gallen, Thiday, Taylor, Shillington etc will st the platform here for the backs Inglis, Hodges and Slater to do their thing. Simply to much talent to contain here tonight. I see the Kangaroos winning by 13+
(1.0u @ 1.99 @ Pinnacle)

NBA

Milwaukee Bucks At Indiana Pacers
ATS - PACERS -5 (x1.5) WIN


Milwaukee's season is all but over after last nights loss to Washington. Tonight they travel to Indiana to take on the red hot Pacers who currently hold the 3rd seed in the East. Quite simply I am backing the form side who still has plenty to play for up against the out of form side who has next to no chance of advancing to the post season this year!

Indiana are arguably the form side of the comp right now and are keen to make their presence known in this years playoffs! Milwaukee are coming off a very disappointing loss and are on b2b games here will be no match for Indiana. Very surprised by this line as I feel it should be closer to 8 or 9! Pacers win well here!
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Thursday, April 19

NBA

Utah @ Portland
ATS - JAZZ -4 (x2) WIN

Portland are officially out of the playoff race with their most recent loss ending their 2012 season. The Blazers have shut up shop now with most of their regular starters out. Aldrige is already done for the year, Crawford is out for personal reasons, Felton is injured and Batum is a game time decision. This leaves a very inexperienced side to take on the desperate Jazz!

Every game is a must win for Utah as they are still a chance of making the Playoffs and will take advantage of this depleted Portland team tonight! Jazz win well!
(2.2u @ 1.90 @ Centrebet)



Houston @ Dallas / LA Lakers @ Golden State
DBL - ROCKETS +10.5 / LAKERS ML (x1.5) WIN

Taking a double here today and I love both these teams chances!
Houston are traveling to Dallas to take on the Mavs returning from a 4 game road trip. Houston are desperate for this as they are just outside playoffs picture and are equal with Phoenix for the 8th seed. Dallas are not that much better sitting in 7th but have a little breathing space. This will come down to who is more desperate and either way I like Houston to throw everything into this game! The +10.5 is a luxury here.

The Lakers lost badly last night and are still in 3rd spot in the West, Just! The Clippers are just behind and closing. I feel this seed is vital the Lakers as they will want to avoid both Clippers and Memphis in the 1st round. Kobe will miss again but as the Lakers have show have plenty of options to cover here against the depleted Warriors.
Golden State are in "tanking" mode now with Curry the latest to be rested. This adds to Bogut obviously and Lee also missing. Lakers will have a huge advantage with Bynum and Gasol. I think this one could get ugly but with the Lakers on b2b I like them to win SU.
(1.65u @ 1.93 @ Sportingbet)

Wednesday, April 18

NBA

Boston Celtics At New York Knicks
ATS - CELTICS +3 (x2) LOSS

The Celtics are great value here I believe as they are the better side in most areas. Sure they are playing their 4th road trip but due to great list management were able to rest the big 3 against their last win over the Bobcats. In fact Allen, Garnett and Pierce stayed in New Jersey, so have actually had no travel and 2 days rest! As I have stated in the past this is huge for anyone, but the Celtics respond just that bit better with rested legs!

New York have had an outstanding 3-4 weeks lead by their superstar Carmelo! He is in red hot form but against this fantastic defensive team he will struggle to do it all himself as he has been doing of late. I see this much like the Miami match up recently where Anthony will definitely keep his Knicks in it but as the game draws out the depth and class of the Celtics will prevail! I like Boston to win this SU!
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)


ADDED
San Antonio @ LA Lakers
1st Q - LAKERS +1 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

Monday, April 16

NBA

NBA: 119-118-10 (+7.92u @ 50.2%)

Philadelphia 76ers At Orlando Magic
ATS - 76ERS -4.5 (x1) LOSS

Both these clubs are sitting 6th & 7th in the East right now so needless to say every game is important. Philadelphia need to find some form and get their consistency back as they have been very patchy late winning just 2 of  past 7 games. They were beaten by Orlando in their last meeting around a week ago on their home floor so I expect the Sixers to be keen on some pay back here tonight!
Orlando will again be without Horward and Turkoglu but may also miss Davis as well. He is a game time decision. Orlando are also on b2b games here having beaten New Jersey last night on the road. Tough spot for the Magic without their key players to face a hungry and very deep team like Philadelphia. I like the Sixers to run this game out on the back of 3 days rest and their depth will test the injury hit Magic. 76ers by 12.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Sunday, April 15

NBA

Early game tomorrow

Miami Heat At New York Knicks
ATS - HEAT -2.5 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Centrebet)

AFL

AFL : 17-13-0 (+4.48u @ 56.7%)

ROUND 3 - SUNDAY

Hawthorn v Adelaide
ATS - CROWS +29.5 (x1) LOSS
The Crows are undefeated so far in 2012. Winning the NAB Cup and their first 2 matches of the season proper. While wins against the Suns and Bulldogs is hardly anything to get excited about they are clearly performing a better game plan and seem to be harder at the contest than previous years. Today will be a real test as to where this group sits.

Hawthorn are 1-1, a tough start to the season with both grandfianlists back 2 back. An impressive win over the Pies to start the season was always on the cards but a disappointing finish to last weeks epic clash with the Cats ended in the Hawks first loss for 2012. This will be tough to back up as that clash would have taken a lot out of all players involved.
Hawthorn are still without captain Hodge and Smith will also miss. Sheils is a good inclusion and should cover the loss of Smiths run and carry. While the Crows will miss Douglas but have some great inclusions in Knights and Martin. Hawthorns back half will once again be tested as Adelaide has two big forwards to contain in Tippett and Walker.

In what should be a great match I like the Crows with the 5 goal start to keep this one tight as the Hawks may struggle after 2 taxing matches to start the season.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)


North Melbourne v Geelong
1ST H - CATS -14.5 (x1)LOSS
Added
*2nd H - CATS -14.5 (x2) LOSS
(down 21 @ half. GL Cats +6.5)

As with the Hawks, Geelong too has had a tough draw to start 2012. A trip West handed the Premiers their first loss and then that Huge clash against the Hawks last Monday got the Cats back in the winners circle. I do feel this start will take its toll on the players and will need to be switched on early against the much fresher Kangaroos.

North have had a little easier lead up into this match it's fair to say, with a training drill against the Giants in Tassie. Will this help them today? You could argue either way. Sure they will be fresh but this will be a huge change in game style. These North boys won't be able to do as they pleased and will find it a little tougher today.

I think North are on the up but are still a fair way back from the top 5 in 2012. The Cats have to much talent and have the wood on the Roos beating them in their past 7 matches. Due to the tough week the Geelong players endued last week, I like them in the first half today. Last year Geelong were exceptional starters and often put the game out of reach early. I expect that to continue here as the Cats will rack up a big score on the fast track at Etihad! Cats cover the 14 and lead well early.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

NRL

NRL : 17-10-1 (+8.30u @ 63%)

ROUND 7 - SUNDAY
Cronulla Sharks vs Parramatta Eels
ATS - SHARKS -5.5 (x1) WIN
The Sharks are in their best form over many years. Arguably in as good a form as the top sides in the comp. This is all down to the players buying in on what their coach is selling. Its clear these guys are all on the same page, doing their job and playing for each other as a team. Something the Eels should learn from because they are clearly not!

Cronulla have always been a grinding team giving away very little easy metres and that has not changes. However with the addition of Carney, they now have that touch of class around the ball. Robson also adds a sense of calmness. Together these guys are running this football team perfectly. Big Gal is loving life right now as he too has some mates who are more than pulling their weight.

The Eels are simply dreadful! This team are a shadow of the team that made the GF a few years back. Haynes injuries have been the main issue but the rest of the team needs to take on that responsibility. Sandow is nursing a knee complaint but should play. I just think t will be another long day on the paddock for these boys. Sharks to continue their rise and win this one well!
Sharks by 18.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)


Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers
ATS - TIGERS -4 (x1) WIN

To say the Tigers need a win would be an understatement! This Group who were flag favourites entering 2012 are just 1-5! losing their past 5 straight! If ever they were going to grab that win an get their season going, its here against the struggling Panthers.

While the Tigers have been disappointing , they still have a talented squad and great leaders. I expect Farrar and Marshall in particular to turn it on here today. Benji while inconstant, has the ability to turn a game on its head at any stage. Today I think those passes stick and the Tigers win well. Penrith has suffered a blow in the lead up to today's game with Jennings, Kingston and Uaisele all ruled out through injury. Big holes to fill especially Jennings in the centres and Hooker Kingston.

Tigers get that win today and win well. Tigers by 18
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA

NBA: 118-117-10 (+7.03u @ 50.2%)

Boston Celtics At New Jersey Nets
1st H - CELTICS -3.5 (x1) LOSS
Boston head to New Jersey on b2b games here coming off a very disappointing loss to the Raptors on the road last night. Once again this is a must win for the Celtics as the competition for playoff seeds heats up! Boston currently hold onto the 4th seed in the East, But that loss has now left the door wide open for Atlanta and Orlando.

Boston are a proud organization and will not be happy with the teams output last night. I expect a huge showing here early on in this one. Being on b2b there is no doubt this older group may feel fatigued down the stretch. That's the reason for my 1st H play only.The Nets are on b2b games here also and are coming off a big win in Phili! Let down here plus fatigue.
The Celtics have publicly stated this is a must win and they must come out with "better urgency". This is just what I expect. Celtics bounce back and lead at the half.
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Centrebet)

Saturday, April 14

AFL

PLAYER EXOTICS

Essendon v Gold Coast
MOST DISPOSALS - GARY ABLETT (x1) WIN


This is a group selection heading ABLETT up against
Watson
Rischitelli
Stanton
Swallow
Hocking
Harbrow
Heppell
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Sportsbet)

AFL

ROUND 3 - SATURDAY

Sydney @ Port Adelaide
ATS - SWANS -13.5 (x2) WIN
While Port have been impressive in their start to 2012, winning their opener against St.Kilda and competitive against the Bombers. I'm not convinced. They are still a relatively young side and with all young sides will have their ups and downs. They have been up for two straight weeks to start the season and rightly so but I feel a let down is on the cards here against the more matured Swans.
Port haven't beaten the Swans since the year they made the Grand final in 2007! Losing 6 straight. Sydney will hold no fears in taking on the Power in Adelaide as they have simply dominated them in recent years.
The Swans back six is just about as solid as it gets. The loss of LRT isn't ideal but Grundy and Richards continue to float under the radar and are extremely reliable and consistent. Shaw, Malceski and Mattner look to  be back to their best with their run and carry and they are proving once again very difficult to score against. Ports key forwards much like their team in general are very hot and cold. Shultz and Westoff  are the main culprits,  while Butcher and Stewart fall into the young bracket. These guys will find today tough.

On the back of Sydney's solid defense the Swans onballers are all extremely strong and hard at it. Mumord back is huge as he sets the tone for the likes of Kennedy, Jack, Goodes, Bolton, McVeigh, Hanneberry and Parker. With a great blend of inside and out I think this group will have a field day against the Powers onballers. Sydney will prove they are a top 5 side here and win well. Swans by 30!
(2.0u @ 2.01 @ Pinnacle)

NBA

NBA: 117-115-10 (+8.23u @ 50.4%)

Boston @ Toronto
ATS - CELTICS -6.5 (x1) LOSS

The Celtics are in terrific form and have forced their way up in the Eastern Conference standings, currently holding onto the 4th seed. However it is extremely tight with Indiana,  Atlanta, Orlando and Phili all fighting for spots 3 through 7. So as with all these contenders every game is a must win from here on out.

Toronto are clearly done for the year and have dropped their past 4 straight. Missing Bargnani hasn't helped matters and the Raptors will feel the pinch again here. Boston are actually on revenge in this one also as Toronto beat them convincingly last time the meet at this very venue. With Boston having some big wins against top tier sides recently they will  need to come out with that same energy and take care of Toronto. With Playoffs in mind and the revenge angle I see no reason why they don't. Celtics win well tonight.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Phoenix @ Houston
ATS - ROCKETS -3.5 (x1) LOSS


Houston are just clinging on to the 7th seed in the West at the moment sitting just behind Dallas and Memphis and have Denver, Utah and Phoenix on their tail. They must keep winning to hold this spot and these type of home games are a must.

Having returned from a 4-0 road trip with some big wins against the Lakers and Bulls, Houston dropped their first game back home last start against one of their challengers Utah. This can happen on in the first game back from a road trip and the players have clearly recognised that. I suspect they will be highly motivated not to let yet another contender do the same again on their home floor.

With the return of Lowry the rockets now seem a complete team all bar Martin. Lowry working in tandem with Dragic is looking the goods and this will be needed to work over Steve Nash tonight. Also the combination of Scola, Dalembert and Camby down low is a great defensive area. Now with bench contributors in Carson, Lee, Patterson and Buddinger and this Rockets side is deep!

Houston won't loss 3 in a row on their home floor. They cover the 2 buckets against the Suns playing their 3rd game on the road tonight.
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Betfair)

ADDED
Denver @ LA Lakers
1st Q - LAKERS -1 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

Friday, April 13

AFL

AFL : 15-12-0 (+2.45u @ 55.6%)
ROUND 3 - FRIDAY NIGHT

Collingwood v Carlton
ML - MAGPIES (x1) LOSS

I'm taking advantage of Sportsbets "Friday the 13th" offer here that in h2h bets if your team losses by >13 you get your money back. So in effect have a 13pt safety net which I love in this match!

Carlton are flying and the Pies are just going. Well that's the perception out their. Sure the Blues deserve to be favourites here but what have they actually done? Lost all NAB games and beaten Richmond and Brisbane. This is a bit of a step up here. Collingwood themselves haven't set the world on fire, Beating Richmond also and losing to the Hawks in round 1.

The Magpies do bring a few handy players back for this one, Maxwell and Wellingham in particular. Maxwell's leadership shouldn't be underestimated, he is the general down back and when that voice is missing it can affect some players more than you might think. I expect Heath Shaw and Harry O are glad to have their skipper out their this week.

Wellingham just adds more depth to an already deep midfield group. This is area Carlton will struggle to match. Don't get me wrong the Blues top 4 or 5 are top shelf. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Scotland and even Simpson. But its the next 3 or 4 that will struggle to match the Pies depth of Swan, Penddlebury, Thomas, Ball, Wellingham, Sidebottom, Beams and even Shaw. If the Blues can break even  here they will be doing well.

Another area of concern I have is how Carlton stop Cloke and Dawes? sure Jameson is the obvious match up but he is playing his first game back and will get burnt by either! Henderson and Bower? not feeling real confident with either. One other small factor that is in Collingwoods favour is the travel. They haven't had to at all and the Blues are returning from Brissy. Carlton over the past 2 seasons are 2-10 SU against the top 4 sides. Have they taken the next step? I like the Pies to win a close one tonight and are value with the Sportsbet Special!
(1.0u @ 2.06 @ Sportsbet)

OTHER GAMES
*SWANS -13.5 (x2)

and only leans at this stage are
*CROWS +30
*1ST H - CATS -13.5

NRL

NRL : 16-10-1 (+6.80u @ 61.5%)

ROUND 7 - FRIDAY NIGHT

Newcastle @ St.George
ATS - DRAGONS -4 (x1.5) WIN

Newcastle's season so far has not gone to script, 3-3 and siting just inside the top 8. Bad news is they now have to take on the Dragons for the second time this season at WIN Jubilee. Its a tough ask at the best of times but with the Dragons uncharacteristically dropping their past 2 games will be desperate for a win.
Even though the Knights managed to scrap for a win last week against the struggling Eels, it was one of the worst displays i have ever seen! the Knight ball control was dismal. Still with out their leader and star play maker Gidley new castle will struggle to keep up with the Dragons here.
They keys here are Soward and Hornby for mine. These two are a strong pairing and know each others game inside and out. Sowards kicking game will keep Boyd and the other backs in check and I feel the Dragons pack of Weyman, Scott, Creagh and Young will be to much to contain. With Dean Young announcing his retirement, expect this to add that motivation required.
Dragons by 10
(1.65u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

OTHER GAMES
*SHARKS -5.5 (x1)
*TIGERS -4 (x1)

NBA

LA Clippers @ Minnesota
ATS - CLIPPERS -5.5 (x2) WIN


The Clippers head to Minnesota tonight on b2b coming off a huge upset win over the leaders of the West OKC! This would have given the younger guys a huge boost of confidence that we belong here and we can match it with anyone on any given night. While b2b road games isn't ideal, Minnesota are in a similar spot.

The Timberwolves are also on b2b games here, returning home from the dreaded Denver trip off a hard fought loss in the end. The Wolves were down 20 at the half and managed to get right back into the game only going down by 6 in the end. All this was without their go to guy. K.Love was concussed late in the 1st quarter and never returned. Huge minutes and effort from Williams, Beasley, Berea and Randolph.
Love is expected to miss tonight which is a massive blow as the Clippers have some of the best big men in the game! of course still without Rubio, Ridnour and Milicic and with the extra minutes for the guys mentioned, this team are in a bad spot returning from altitude. Berea will struggle against CP3 and I expect Paul to have another night out. Blake and DJ wont have Love to contend with either.

Add to all this the Clippers are on triple revenge as remarkably the Wolves have won all 3 meetings so far this season! LA are right in the mix in the West right now and of course every game for them is important and could be the difference between finishing 4th or 7th. Minnesota are playing for nothing and it shows losing 6 in a row. Clippers win big here tonight!
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

Wednesday, April 11

NBA

NBA: 115-113-10 (+6.48u @ 50.4%)

Philadelphia 76ers At Toronto Raptors
1ST H - 76ERS -2 (x2) WIN

Really like Philadelphia here in Toronto tonight! The Sixers got their groove back last night and carry on with it here. While they are on b2b games due to the easily win this wont be an issue, even so I'm taking them in the 1st half only as they are one of the best starting teams.
This is a huge revenge game for the Sixers as Toronto beat up on them just a week ago winning by 20+! Big issue for the Raptors here is they now have no Bargnani or Bayless. With nothing to play for a just don't see any motivation angles to help Toronto in this one.

Phili still with a fight on their hands to make this years playoffs is all the more reason for them to come out focused here tonight. The Sixers are an extremely deep side and will prove far to strong in alot of areas. 76ers lead well at the main break!
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)


Indiana Pacers At Cleveland Cavaliers
ATS - PACERS -7.5 (x1) LOSS

Indiana currently holds the 3rd seed in the East! that's a huge effort and one they will be desperate to hang on to. Every game from here till the playoffs is a must win for this club if they want to give themselves the best opportunity. The Cavs on the other hand are spent. Unfortunately they have been hit with to many injuries and now have no reason to really suit up. Its all about 2012-13 now for them.

The Cavs are on b2b games and are  missing Irving, Gibson and of course Sessions has been traded, leaving a gaping hole in their back court! Indiana are strong and healthy right now and the addition of Barbosa has only added more depth. I like the Pacers with the rest to take care Cleveland here tonight. Pacers by 14.
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Sportsbet)

ADDED
*4TH Q - NUGGETS -2.5 (x1)
(Up 9 @ 3rd. GL Nuggets -11.5)
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

Tuesday, April 10

NBA

NBA: 114-112-10 (+7.10u @ 50.4%)

Boston Celtics At Miami Heat
ATS - CELTICS +7.5 (x1) WIN

Miami host Boston in a big revenge match for the Heat! Miami were beaten badly against the Celtics last start. Rondo had a day out! A huge triple double and really exposed a weakness in Miami's line up. Charmers at the point was clearly out of his depth and Rondo will again look to take control of this match.
Wade will return after taking the last game off with and ankle compliant, weather he is 100% is unknown as he was always going to suit up for this rematch! Both teams here have had a night off and that works in Boston's favour. As the older team they clearly perform at the best with rest.

While Miami are always hard to beat at home and have revenge on their minds I like Boston in this spot getting 7.5 start. They are an experienced team and will be well prepared for Miami just as they were last start. The Celtics big four are healthy, Garnet has been in red hot form this past month, Allen seems to has embraced his new role off the bench, Pierce is always dangerous and well Rondo is they key tonight! I believe he will control the tempo of this game and I expect a tough and close match. Like the points here.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)


New York Knicks At Chicago Bulls
ATS - KNICKS +9 (x1.5) LOSS
Chicago and New York meet again after playing each other just days ago in a classic which the Knicks held on to beat the Bulls by a point in OT! Chicago were disappointing in many areas of this game. Their shooting was off with Rose one of the main culprit's. They struggled on the boards as Chandler proved to big a force on defense and Deng was totally out played by Melo!

I expect the Bulls to respond here and are exceptional at home. However New York is in fantastic form and full of confidence right now. Shumpert was huge defensively in their last game, really putting the clamps on Rose and didn't give him any easy looks. Expect much of the same here. Deng needs to turn up also, at least defensively as Melo just did as he pleased last game. While when he is in that frame of mind he is almost impossible to stop, Deng also needs to offer something on offense.
Rumour is Rose pulled up sore after his first game back. As anyone who has returned from a long lay off with injury will know, it's much harder to get up for your second game back. With that in mind I like the Knicks to be really competitive here and happy to take the +9 on offer!
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA

Phoenix Suns At Minnesota Timberwolves
ATS - SUNS -2.5 (x1) WIN


Phoenix are making a charge for that final playoff spot in the West! Coming off a huge win against the Lakers their confidence will be through the roof! It must be noted that Kobe did not play that game but even so the Suns have won 4 of their last 5 to keep their hopes alive!

Minnesota are going in the complete opposite direction! Losing their past 5 straight have officially put the cue in the rack for 2011-12 and are looking to next season already! Injuries to key personal at the business end of this season has forced their hand with Big Petrovic, Beasley and of course Rubio out for the Year.
Beasley and Petrovic have returned and K.Love is still put up huge numbers but with little motivation and no dominate point guard I think another loss is on the cards. As long as Phoenix can contain Love, I think Nash will really hurt Minnesota the other way. Take the inform side here and that's clearly Phoenix! Suns cover and win by 10!
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Monday, April 9

NRL

MONDAY

Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers
ATS - SEA EAGLES -5.5 (x1) WIN

Manly look to bounce back from and ordinary start to 2012. The Sea Eagles have had to face a number of obstacles to begin their title defense but have now lost 3 in a row and none more demoralising than last weeks defeat at the hands of the Eels! This is a very proud group and look for them to bounce back strong. A game at Brookie is just whats needed.

Penrith have been hot and cold also to start 2012, mostly cold but not much more was really expected of this group this season. They have lost all 3 games at home this season so a trip away could be a good thing? But not this week, Penrith has not fared well at Brookvale over the years. Manly still has to much talent and in front of their home fans will put on a show! Sea Eagles by 14.
(1.2u @ 1.84 @ Centrebet)

AFL

MONDAY

Geelong @ Hawthorn
ATS - CATS +12.5 (x1.5) WIN
MARGIN - CATS 1-39 (x1) WIN

Hawthorn will be looking to snap a 0-9 losing run to Geelong here in this big Easter Monday match! The Cats have not lost to the Hawks since the 2008 Grand final! Remarkable. It must be noted that almost all margins in these games were single figures and I expect another close battle again!

Geelong will be without Scarlett who is suspended and are still missing Josh Hunt and Wojo from their back half. But with the likes of Taylor, Lonergan, Enright, Mackie down back they have plenty of experience and leaders to guide the way. Geelongs biggest concern this season will be in the ruck. An area the Cats have gone from very strong to extremely limited. Ottens and Blake retired and now young ruck man Vardy and Simpson are both on the long term injury list. This leave West to carry the load and 29yr old rookie Orren. It is unfair to judge this pair last week against the best in the business Sandilands and will find it much easier today as the Hawks have issues in this department also.

An area of concern for Hawthorn will be Geelongs forward half. Similar to Collingwoods, Geelong has 2 big key forwards that will require watching. But also has some of the best small and mid range forwards in the game. Johnson is a must stop and Chapman is on the verge of one of those 30+ possessions and 4 goal games. The Hawks back six looked ok against the Magpies but still leaked a lot of points. They will find it tough again today.
Overall I have the Hawks favourites but only just. Hodge still out balances out Scarlett missing and while returning from Perth is not ideal for the Cats they are actually 9-0 SU in this spot! I expect another tight fought contest and with fired up Cats side coming off a loss and being labeled "arrogant" the Hawks would want to be on their game! Cats can win this and happy with the 12.5 start. Cats by 2.
(1.5u @ 1.99 @ Pinnacle)
(0.5u @ 3.25 @ Centrebet)

Sunday, April 8

NBA

Chicago Bulls At New York Knicks
ATS - BULLS -2.5 (x2) LOSS
Chicago will welcome back the MVP Derrick Rose back for this match against New York at the Garden! They are well rested and will have far to much talent for the injury it Knicks to contain. While New York has been performing quite well under their interim coach they will fall short here. Still without Stoudamire and Lin as well their depth will be tested. Chicago to win by 12!
(2.1u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

Philadelphia 76ers At Boston Celtics
ATS - CELTICS -4 (x1) WIN
The Celtics are in double revenge here against the 76ers and are full of confidence coming off a win last night. Phili have lost their way since their impressive start to the season and are also on b2b games after a bad loss to the Magic last night. The Celtics are tough to beat at home and with the extra motivation Boston gets the win and covers! Celtics by 10.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

NRL

NRL : 14-9-1 (+5.84u @ 60.9%)
ROUND 6
SUNDAY
Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors
ATS - WARRIORS -2.5 (x1) LOSS

The Raiders just cannot catch a break, they have been hit by injuries yet again! This time Brett White has a season ending knee injury and Thompson will be out for up to a month. This adds to Josh Dugan and Shaun Fensom. To many holes in this Canberra line up to hold out the Warriors here, even at home! Like New Zealand to get back on the winners list and notch up a rare win in Canberra! Warriors by 12.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Sportsbet)

Nth Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm
ATS - STORM -3.5 (x1) WIN

The Storm are in arguably their best form over the past few years right now. Winning all 5 games of 2012. This will be probably their biggest test to date. The Cowboys while have been a bit shaky to start the year, are always dangerous at home. This should be a great match up between both fullbacks Slater v Bowen. The key play makers Thurston and Cronk.

The Cowboys will again be without their leader and enforcer Scott in what is a big hole to fill. Even though the Cowboys were back on the winner list last week, it was against the injury hit Raiders. Although Melbourne lost here in Townsville last year they actually have a remarkable record at Dairy farmers winning 4 of the past 5!

With the big 3 leading the way and a great disciplined game plan, Melbourne will grind out a win here and keep their perfect record in tact! Storm by 8.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

MONDAY
Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers
ATS - SEA EAGLES -5.5 (x1)
(1.2u @ 1.84 @ Centrebet)

AFL

AFL SUNDAY

GW Sydney @ Nth Melbourne
ATS - GIANTS +76.5 (x1) LOSS


I'm taking the new boys here to again be competitive and keep this one inside 12 goals. The Giants take on the Roos in Tassie which is tipped to be cold, wet and windy. Also being the first time a lot of Norths boys will play here I think the Giants a good chance to keep this game respectable.

The Giants were ok in their opener and have included Scully and Power for this one which will give the yong boys a huge lift. For the Giants controlling the Kangaroos talks will be a tough ask but they may be assisted by the weather in this one. Giants keep it to under 10 goals.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

Gold Coast @ St.Kilda
2ND H - SUNS +32.5 (x1) LOSS
(Suns down by 41 @ half. GL SUNS +73.5)
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

NBA

NBA: 111-110-10(+8.21u @ 50.2%)

Los Angeles Lakers At Phoenix Suns
ML - LAKERS PK (x2) LOSS


Phoenix will return home from a 3 game road trip to face the Lakers tonight. The Suns had their little run broken last night as they went down to the Nuggets. Now playing on b2b and returning from Denver and Utah the Suns must regroup to face a Lakers side that just lost in their own building.

Phoenix who have played just 2 of their past 10 at home. As well as the letdown the Suns must be feeling off last night loss, the fatigue and difficulties of returning from altitude will also take its toll. I suspect they will be a little rusty 1st game home from their road trip also.

The Lakers will be on b2b games here also but have had the luxury of playing 7 of their past 8 at home. I expect a big performance from Andrew Bynum here tonight. He owes his side after being ejected last night late in the 3rd for back chat. He will be well rested and looking to get some respect back from his coaches and teammates in this one. Sessions has been a great addition to this team and will keep Nash in check, While MWP looks to have found his confidence back! I find it hard to see Gortat and Frye keeping Bynum and Gasol quiet and who guards Kobe?

Kobe loves playing the Suns and in a must win game LA gets Pheonix in a bad spot. I like the Lakers to bounce back strong here in Pheonix and win SU.
(2.05u @ 1.98 @ Pinnacle)


Sacramento Kings At Los Angeles Clippers
1ST H - CLIPPERS -4 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

Saturday, April 7

AFL

AFL SATURDAY NIGHT

Collingwood @ Richmond
ATS - MAGPIES -35.5 (x2) LOSS


Richmond failed to live up to all the hype and expectations that were place on them before the opening round. Carlton just clicked into gear early in the last and put the young Tigers to bed! Collingwood lost also but they were very competitive against the flag favourites Hawthorn.

Collingwood regain a couple of handy players Tarrant and Beams for this one. Tarrant is super important as he sures up their defense and is capable of manning bigs or smalls. This is an area that is still a concern for the Tigers, their defense. Richmond looked very unsure in their back half last week. They still lack a quality key defender and guess what, against Collingwood you need two! I don't know how Richmond hold Cloke and Dawes?

Colling are a proud club and will not want to start 2012 0-2. With Richmonds leaky backline, Collingwoods midfield sure to give plenty of service too the big power forwards, a big score looks to be on the cards. Collingwood make a statement here and win by 10 goals!
(2.0u @ 2.01 @ Pinnacle)

NBA

Phoenix Suns At Denver Nuggets
ATS - SUNS +3.5 (x1) LOSS

The Suns are making an almighty charge for that 8th seed in the West winning their past 3 in a row on the back of an energised Steve Nash and Gortat! This team has confidence and belief right now and that is huge in this game. The Nuggets, returning home from a long road trip and coming off a tough loss the Hornets, is fair to say is a little less confident, and with Galinaro and Chandler still out may find the fired up suns a little tough to contain here in their first game home.

I like the Suns to win here tonight or at very least keep this one close
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)


Houston Rockets At Los Angeles Lakers
1st H - LAKERS -3 (x2) WIN

The Lakers are on a 4 game winning streak and are coming off a big motivational victory against home town rivals the Clippers. After all the hype the Lakers still hold the #3 seed n the West right now and will be keen to hold on to it and finish above the Clippers.

Bynum has taken his game to the next level and is quickly becoming the go to man in LA! The choice of sticking with Gasol and picking up Sessions has been a masterstroke so far. Gasol is the perfect teammate and a great role player who can step up on any given night and give you 25 & 10. Sessions has been the young spark this team needed. He has involved LA's big's alot more and is giving Kobe a nice cut out when required on offense.

While the Rockets have been solid with a 29-25 record, they haven't fared so well on the road, just 9-17. Facing the Lakers at Staples is just about as tough as it gets as they are 23-5 on their home floor. With Lowry and Martin still out I think tonight will be too big a task for Houston. LA have been sensational in the opening halves of most matches, it's been finishing that's been their main concern. With that said I like the Lakers to come out strong again here early and have this game in control at the half.
(2.3u @ 1.87 @ Pinnacle)

Friday, April 6

AFL

AFL SATURDAY

Fremantle @ Sydney
ATS - SWANS -5.5 (x1) WIN


The Swans host the Dockers in what may well feel like their first match of the new season. Sure they played 2 weeks ago now against the Giants in a stand alone match but now is when the real stuff begins for Sydney. The Swans were average in that game, just doing what was needed to fend of GWS winning by 10 goals +.

They will get a boost with O'Keefe and Shaw both named for this one while the Dockers will miss the little pest Ballantyne. Fremantle were super impressive in their 1st up win over the Premiers Geelong. So good I'm not sure that same effort can be repeated straight up. Let down here I suspect.

The few key factors as to why I'm against the Dockers are Let down as mentioned above, travel factor and the loss of Ballantyne cannot be underestimated. He does give them a spark when needed. On the Flip side Sydney are at home, well rested and have added two key players. Sydney are fantastic at the contested ball and on the smaller spaces of the SCG I see Sydney limiting Freos run and carry. Mumford will be a huge challenge for Sandilands to stay with all game. He has formed a great relationship with Kennedy and those two will give Sydney plenty of forward entries. Swans get the points, win by 19pts
(1.15u @ 1.87 @ Sportsbet)

Melbourne @ West Coast
ATS - EAGLES -49.5 (x1) WIN

The Demons have had a week from hell! With all the gossip and end undo I feel for Neeld. He must be thinking what on earth have I got myself into here! Melbourne have a number of players missing here Maloney, Davey, Sylvia to name a few and were just awful last week against the Lions. A game they really had to stand up in and they all just went missing.

The Eagles look ominous. This team is well drilled and just look ready to go very deep in September. I just cannot see the Demons staying remotely close to the Eagles over in Perth. This one will be ugly! Eagles by 75!
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTI #1

Last season I played the odd multi through out my year. Generally only 1 every few weeks which I record in its own Multi section of my results. Please note I do not advise betting like this on a regular basis as you are bound to fail. However having said that it can be a good way to give your bank a boost and keep the weekend interesting. I always keep my outlay to a minimum, 0.5 - 1 unit and try for odds of $6 - $12. Also if my first two legs are successful I often look to lay off on the final leg to ensure either way I receive a collect.

With that all said here is my first Cheeky Multi of the year!

1. Fremantle @ Sydney - SWANS 1-39
2. Collingwood @ Richmond - MAGPIES 40+
3. Geelong @ Hawthorn - CATS +12.5
Outlaying 0.5u to win 4.46u
(0.5u @ 9.93 @ Sportingbet)

NBA

Boston Celtics At Chicago Bulls
ATS - BULLS -6.5 (x1.5) WIN

Chicago may or may not have D.Rose back for this huge match but either way I like the Bulls to get back on track against the Celtics. Boston are on B2B games here coming off a tough 1pt loss to the Spurs on their home court. That's a tough match to back up from and now they must travel to Chicago to face a rested Bulls team on the back of 2 losses.

Boston's older legs will struggle tonight to keep up with a highly motivated and very deep Bulls team. Chicago win and cover tonight!
(1.6u @ 1.95 @ Sportingbet)

NBA

New York Knicks At Orlando Magic
1st Q - MAGIC -0.5 (x1) LOSS
Huge revenge spot here for Orlando tonight hosting the Knicks! New York embarrassed them in their last meeting by close to 40pts! The Magic have had issues internally also and will be keen to put it all to bed and play well in front of their fans here tonight. Anderson will again miss but Neilson and Howard should both play. Orlando have been a terrific starting team, especially at home and with the right motivation should be here again.

I like Orlando to come out and well and lead after the opening quarter!
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Centrebet)

Thursday, April 5

AFL

ROUND 2

Carlton @ Brisbane
2nd H - LIONS +20.5 (x1) LOSS
(Lions Down 21 @ Half. GL LIONS +41.5)
(1.1u @ 1.9 @ Sportingbet)

NBA

NBA: 108-107-10 (+7.05u @ 50.2%)
Denver @ New Orleans
1st H - NUGGETS -2 (x1) LOSS
Denver will finally complete a long road trip tonight as they face the struggling Hornets. New Orleans Play their first game at home coming off a long road trip of their own. There is a lot of uncertainty on who will suit up for the Hornets tonight with prize recruit Eric Gordon tipped to make his 1st start coming off a long lay off due to injury. Adding to Gordon the Hornets are also hopeful Lowry and Ariza suit up also. Okafor will miss again however and Kaman should play but has been ill.

With all this uncertainty and with a potentially new look starting line up the Hornets may take time to adjust. Teams playing their 1st game home off a long road trip tend to come out a little off anyway.
The Nuggets will most likely be with Galinaro once again but other wise seemed settled and with the playoffs hunt still alive should be keen to end this road trip on a high! Due to the Hornets circumstanstances and the Nuggets last game on the road before returning home I like Denver to take advantage early and be in control at the main break.
(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

ADDED
LA Lakers @ LA Clippers
LIVE 4th Q - LAKERS -2.5 (x1) WIN
(1.0u @ 2.0 @ Pinnacle)

Wednesday, April 4

NBA

NBA: 107-107-10 (+5.03u @ 50%)

Phoenix Suns At Sacramento Kings
ATS - SUNS -2 (x2) WIN

Phoenix hits the road to take on Sacramento in a must win game. All games from here on in are in fact must win for the Suns as they are make their charge for a playoff berth! The Suns are just 1.5 games behind that 8th seed so all games are important!

They get the Kings in a favorable spot here with Sacramento coming off a strong come from behind win last night against New Jersey, possible let down here with this young group. They are on b2b, and are now playing their 4th in past 5 days. Big fatigue spot also!

Phoenix have had a days rest and do have an ok travel record. Of the games the Suns have lost recently, they have been against teams above them while they have taken care of the teams below them most of this season. With the Playoffs in site I expect this to be Motivation enough to grind out a victory against the fatigued Kings with let's face it, not much to play for. Suns win on the road and cover the bucket!
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Tuesday, April 3

NBA

NBA: 106-107-10 (+4.02u @ 49.8%)

Memphis @ OKC
ATS - GRIZZLES +7.5 (x1) WIN

This is a fade spot for the Thunder. While they are in ripping form and is always a risk to back against them especially at home, I like Memphis to play them tight and keep this one close. OKC have won 6 in a row, and are on b2b tonight. They have just had huge emotional wins over Championship rivals in the Lakers and Chicago last night. OKC also host Miami up next! Look ahead spot also for the Thunder.

Memphis have lost 3 straight to OKC so far this season and will be desperate to get one back. The Grizzles are also in a tough battle to secure the best seed they can in the West so every game from here on in is vital! Not so much for the Thunder who are clearly the Number 1 seed!

I do like the match ups tonight. I think Conley and Allen can limit Westbrook and KD's damage, then Memphis may be able to put pressure on OKC with Gasol, ZBo and Gay. Memphis are a terrific defensive team and force plenty of turnovers. If they do catch the Thunder a little fatigued and not quite on for this game, they could cause an upset! Memphis to stay within 8 tonight!
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Monday, April 2

NCAA CBB

NCAAB: 104-79-2 (+15.02u @ 56.8%)

FINAL FOUR

Ohio State v Kansas
ATS - OHIO ST -2.5 (x2) LOSS
(2.1u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Kansas v Kentucky
ATS - KENTUCKY -6 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Pinnacle)

Sunday, April 1

NBA

Early start in the NBA tomorrow

Miami Heat At Boston Celtics
ATS - HEAT -3 (x1.5) LOSS
(1.65u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

Denver Nuggets At Orlando Magic
1st Q - MAGIC -1 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

NRL

Round 5 - SUNDAY

Gold Coast Titans vs Canterbury Bulldogs
ATS - BULLDOGS -4 (x1) WIN

Looking for the Bulldogs to bounce back here today up at the Gold Coast! Des Hasler is a proud man and very rarely does his sides put in 2 bad performances in a row. Expect a big lift in effort today.

The Titans are in a world of hurt right now. Both on and off the field! They have a huge debt off the field and have lost 3 in a row on it! To add to this they loss their captain and sole playmaker in Scott Prince! Not sure who creates on offense for the titans now? Bulldogs get the bounce back win on the road and cover the 4!
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Sportsbet)

NBA

NBA: 104-103-10 (+5.97u @ 50.2%)
Atlanta Hawks At Philadelphia 76ers
1st H - 76ERS -3 (x1) LOSS
Added
2nd H - 76ERS -4 (x1) LOSS
Phili is coming off a bad blowout loss to the Wizards last night, I expect a big response here at home tonight! Both teams are on b2b games but the Hawks are now playing their 7th in 9 nights! That's a long stretch. The Sixers have all their players back and healthy some are just not in good form. I expect them to start well here! Sixers to lead well at the half!
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Centrebet)
(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

Utah Jazz At Los Angeles Clippers
1st Q - CLIPPERS -1.5 (x1) WIN
ATS - CLIPPERS -5 (x2) WIN

Always love the Clippers to start well at home! They set the tone for the fans and light up Stapples! I expect no difference here tonight against Utah. The Jazz are not particularly good on the road. Both teams are on b2b games with the Clippers just winning and Utah just losing. I feel Utahs bigs will have trouble with the athleticism of LA's bigs here and with Paul clearly the best play maker on the floor gives the Clippers a huge advantage!

Clippers to do what they do best as start with a bang again here at home tonight!
(1.15 @ 1.89 @ Betfair)
(2.1u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

NRL

SATURDAY
Cronulla @ Penrith
ATS - SHARKS +3.5 (x1.5) WIN

The Sharks are going for 3 in a row when they tackle the Panthers at Centrebet Stadium. I think they get it done as well! All of a sudden things are clicking for the Sharks. Their skipper Gallen finally has a good support act with Bukuya, Ross and Smith all doing their part. De Gois is proving a handy pick up and the halves pairing of Carney and Robson are just now working well together also.

The Panthers have 2 wins on the board also, but against the Roosters and Eels is hardly worth that much weight. This is going to be a tough grind as the Sharks wont give up any easy meters or points. I just love the Sharks here and am surprised they aren't favorites. Take the points but Sharks to win here!
(1.65u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)