Welcome all..... I live in Australia and have been punting on Sports for the past 6 years. Looking forward to another sucessful year in 2013...... I enjoyed another sucessful Campaign in 2012 which was my 2nd year posting here. Detailed results can be seen below.

I bet on the AFL , NRL as well as US Basketball, the NBA & NCAA CBB. Here I will post my plays as a record with regular write ups. It is most important that you create a Twitter account and follow me @baywatchbets as all my plays are posted there first then followed up with a detailed post here. Be sure to follow twitter below!!!

FOLLOW TWITTER

I play on ML, ATS, Quarters, Halves, Doubles and occasionally on Player Exotics. My goal is to hit close to 60%. However 53% will give a nice profit.

I bet in units. Though out the seasons I will play x1 unit, x1.5 units, x2 units and on occasions huge x3, x4 & even x5 unit plays! On average x1 unit should be 3.5% of your bankroll so adjust accordingly. This is very important as we are investing not gambling!

So for example your x1 unit may be to win $100, so I bet $110 @ odds of 1.91. Betting at these odds your unit outlay would be:

x1 unit play - $110 to win $100

x1.5 unit play - $165 to win $150

x2 unit play - $220 to win $200 etc.

I adjust the amount I bet according to the odds taken. for example playing x1 unit @ odds of 1.85 I then have to up my bet to $115 to win $100 and so on.

Patience and Bankroll management is the key.

Good luck all and enjoy the ride....

Friday, April 13

AFL

AFL : 15-12-0 (+2.45u @ 55.6%)
ROUND 3 - FRIDAY NIGHT

Collingwood v Carlton
ML - MAGPIES (x1) LOSS

I'm taking advantage of Sportsbets "Friday the 13th" offer here that in h2h bets if your team losses by >13 you get your money back. So in effect have a 13pt safety net which I love in this match!

Carlton are flying and the Pies are just going. Well that's the perception out their. Sure the Blues deserve to be favourites here but what have they actually done? Lost all NAB games and beaten Richmond and Brisbane. This is a bit of a step up here. Collingwood themselves haven't set the world on fire, Beating Richmond also and losing to the Hawks in round 1.

The Magpies do bring a few handy players back for this one, Maxwell and Wellingham in particular. Maxwell's leadership shouldn't be underestimated, he is the general down back and when that voice is missing it can affect some players more than you might think. I expect Heath Shaw and Harry O are glad to have their skipper out their this week.

Wellingham just adds more depth to an already deep midfield group. This is area Carlton will struggle to match. Don't get me wrong the Blues top 4 or 5 are top shelf. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Scotland and even Simpson. But its the next 3 or 4 that will struggle to match the Pies depth of Swan, Penddlebury, Thomas, Ball, Wellingham, Sidebottom, Beams and even Shaw. If the Blues can break even  here they will be doing well.

Another area of concern I have is how Carlton stop Cloke and Dawes? sure Jameson is the obvious match up but he is playing his first game back and will get burnt by either! Henderson and Bower? not feeling real confident with either. One other small factor that is in Collingwoods favour is the travel. They haven't had to at all and the Blues are returning from Brissy. Carlton over the past 2 seasons are 2-10 SU against the top 4 sides. Have they taken the next step? I like the Pies to win a close one tonight and are value with the Sportsbet Special!
(1.0u @ 2.06 @ Sportsbet)

OTHER GAMES
*SWANS -13.5 (x2)

and only leans at this stage are
*CROWS +30
*1ST H - CATS -13.5
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