NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

STG v MAN
EXOTIC - TIME OF 1ST TRY - 11MIN OR LATER (x1)

In a battle of two of the best sides in the comp this one should be a cracker! The Dragons haven't won in their last 3 games which is highly unusual! Whist Manly just keep on winning. I expect a huge emphasis on defence here, especially from Wayne Bennetts chargers. No try inside the first 10 as these teams feel each other out is the play for me here.

(1.2u @ 1.85 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - KANGAROOS -12.5 (x2)

The Kangaroos have won 3 in a row and are gaining momentum challenging for a spot in the 8. They will be aiming for their 4th straight win over in adelaide against the Power. To say Port are struggling is an understatement. This is a side clearly rebuilding and trying desperately to introduce a new culture in the club. Motlop is the latest of their senior players to be dropped this week.

Nth have a number of players in career best form. Namely Daniel Wells and Drew Petrie. Adding to that the return of hard running players Bastinac and Greenwood and this side is starting to show promise. I have said it many times before but confidence is a huge factor in this game and these young Roos will have plenty going not this one. Kangaroos to win well on the road today.

(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - EAGLES +27.5 (x2)

West Coast face another challenge today. Taking on a top 4 side in Melbourne. They have failed so far this season with a big loss to Collingwood on the big stage a few weeks back. Today they take on the Blues who a on the rise with most talking them up as a premiership contender. The Eagles will be desperate to make a mends for their last Melbourne visit and with players such as Kerr, Cox and Embley back in career best form have a fantastic opportunity to do so.

Look for the Selwood brothers to Mack life difficult for Judd and Murphy and I like the Tall forwards the Eagles have to test the Blues back half. Kennedy will get Jamison, Lynch most likely Thornton, leaving Darling and Nick Nat to ??? This is where the Blues may be found out. Eagles to push the Blues today and stay within the 27.5 offered.

(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Centrebet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ADEL @ GEEL
PLAYER EXOTIC: MOST GOALS H2H - PODSIADLY over TIPPETT (x1)

Geelong host the struggling Adelaide Crows today down at Skilled Stadium. The Ground the have won 26 in a row! It's fair to say they enjoy playing there. Another player who loves this ground is the JPod. He has had a number of big bags in front of the Geelong faithful. In a match where I expect Geelong to dominate he should once again get plenty of opportunity to get right amounts the scorers.

Tippett has been very hit and miss this season and with the home ground advantage I feel the JPod is a good bet to beat Tippett here in Geelong.

(1.25u @ 1.81 @ Centrebet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ML - STORM (x1)

The Warriors are back at home today to take on the Storm. After a terrific start to the season they have lost their last 3 in a row and also loose young guns Locke and Fisiiahi to injury. The Storm on the other hand have defied the odds and have once again risen to the top of the table! This team is a class act. Melbourne will be looking for some revenge here after losing to the Warriors earlier in the year in Melbourne. On the back of the form of Smith, Cronk and Widdop I see the Storm winning over in NZ today.

(1.20 @ 1.85 @ Centrebet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ML - EELS (x1.5)

Paramatta travel to Canberra tonight to face the struggling Raiders. The Eels have not had many things to smile about in 2011 either but I do like their efforts in recent games against the Sea Eagles and Dragons and feel a win is not to far away. Will this be the night? I think so. The Raiders will be without Dugan once again and Harrison has been dropped to the bench. Jarryd Hayne is the key in this one and he is getting back to his damaging best with great games against Manly and also for the Blues in Origin 2. I think he will create to many problems for the Raiders to contain. Eels to win a close one.

(1.15u @ 2.32 @ Centrebet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - MAGPIES -33.5 (x4)

MAGPIES GUNS BACK AND READY TO FIRE!

Sydney come up against their bogey side this week, who also just happens to be the reigning Premiers. The Swans haven't beaten Collingwood since 2006! Losing 9 in a row! 5 of them being at this very ground. Sorry Swans fans I don't see that trend ending tonight.

The Swans received a major blow with Ruckman Mumford suspended once again for tackling? I still don't like these charges but that's another matter. So they will once again turn to Seaby to carry the load. Lucky for him Collingwood's main ruck man Jolly is still a week or so away but in other team news the Pies get back gun midfielders Daisy Thomas and Dane Swan! Who returns from Arizona after having the past 3 weeks getting over any injury worries he had. I know the common trend this year has been teams struggle after the bye, well not on this occasion. This break couldn't have come at a better time. Let's face it, the Magpies are still the top seed right now now and the week off or 3 weeks for some would have given the players time to freshen up, regroup and come out ready to take on the second half of the season.

Sydney were exposed last week against the Blues. It just seems they haven't the firepower to take on the top tier teams. Collingwood is at the top of the list! Sydney have been renowned for close battles and tight finishes but I think they will get blown away for the second week in a row against the well rested Pies! Collingwood by 40+

(4.4u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - DOCKERS -32.5 (x2)

Fremantle were disgraceful last week! Let me just say that first of all. Serious questions have been asked of this group who show plenty of potential. They do have possible the longest list of injuries of all clubs right now so that will be considered. The Dockers can count their lucky stars that they have drawn the Lions this week @ home!

Fremantle will welcome back a host of players this week but none more important that big Sandilands! Aaron's inclusion is a huge lift for this side looking to bounce back in front of their home crowd. Silvagni and Hayden also return for their first game this season which will strengthen their back half. Brisbane has won just 2 wins for the year and it's no secret they are struggling. Adding to their woes are more injuries to key players with Mitch Clark and Banfield the latest to go down. The Loss of Clark in particular is a cruel blow with Sandilands back for the Dockers. Add to this Merrett, Adcock, Drummond and Staker and poor Lions look shot! Dockers to continue their roller coaster 2011 ride and win well @ Home.

(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Centrebet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY x2

ATS - W.BULLDOGS -33.5 (x2)
PLAYER EXOTIC - DT H2H - S.HIGGINS over D.CROSS (x1)

The Western Bulldogs got a much needed win last week over the Crows and cling to the slim chance of playing finals in 2011. That will all be for nothing if they don't capitalize on today's match with the the Gold Coast. This will be the 2nd match between these two side with the Dogs winning easily by 71pts in round 3. While the young Suns have shown signs of improvement since then with winning 2 games and pushing some more fancied sides, they are still very inconsistent. They have and average losing margin of 51 points this year and that is about where I see this one ending up.

The Suns will welcome back young guns Smith and Swallow who look certain to be leaders of this club for years to come. While the Dogs who received a boost last week with Cooney returning, now will welcome the return of their spearhead Barry Hall! This is a huge inclusion against the younger bodied Suns as Bock will be forced to play tight on Hall.

It's the Bulldogs for me who will show no mercy against the Suns up their in QLD today. It's amazing what a win can do for a group that has been struggling. This will lift the confidence of the players and with key inclusions Cooney and Hall both back I see a big win for the Dogs.

After having a close look at the player exotic markets, I have found one that I feel offers good value. Shaun Higgins to post more DT points than Daniel Cross. Since returning from injury, Rocket has moved Higgins to the back  half in a more quarterback  type role which really suits as he is a great user of the pill. His DT scores have gone 73, 84, 95 & 105 in the last 4 weeks. So as you can see he is getting better each week. This is the game he will love and should get plenty of ball all over the ground. The last time the Dogs played the Suns Higgins scored 126! Cross has been a reliable servant for the dogs but over the past month has had scores of 56, 91, 51 & 86. So a bit below average for him. with odds of 1.97 for Higgins and 1.82 for Cross, I feel they have them the wrong way round. Higgins to have a big game against the smaller bodies of the suns.

(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)
(1.05u @ 1.97 @ Centrebet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

DOUBLE - RABBITOHS +12.5 / SHARKS +12.5 (x2)

Taking a double here with two sides I feel have a genuine shot at winning SU! Firstly Souths played some of the best football I have seen in a long while last week against the Titans winning easily. Dave Taylor looks like the penny has dropped and he is ready to take this competition by storm! GI will be better once again for the run and Sandow is showing why the Eels threw the cheque book at him. They face the Broncos who always seem to find players to slot straight in and do a job. Tonight they will be without rep winger Yow Yeh and Hodges will play his first game coming back from injury. This match is being played at neutral ground over in Perth? not sure who this suits but I like the Bunnies chances here. Taking them with a 12.5 point start.

2nd game is  the Sharks up against the Titans. Gold Coast are having the season from hell! I am waiting for them to turn it all around but it just doesn't seem to happen. They face a Cronulla side full of confidence coming off a big win over the Bulldogs and on the back of that and lead by Skipper Paul Gallen I think they can get the win over the Titans on the road. Once again taking the 12.5 start but wouldn't be surprised to see both these two win outright.

(2.2u @ 1.9 @ Sportsbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - BULLDOGS -2.5 (x1.5)

The Dogs will be desperate here tonight as wins have been few and far between. They have struck gold with drawing the Tigers minus Benji. Adding to that they have arguably their best side running out with the likes of Ennis, Idris and Hodkinson all returning. The Bulldogs were terrible last week against the Sharks and will be ready to make put that performance behind them. I'm not sure how these Tigers will go without their general out their. All year things just haven't clicked for them. I can't see them putting up enough points here tonight. Bulldogs will be too good and win well.
(1.65u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - HAWKS -9.5 (x2)

The Hawks enter tonight match against arch rivals Essendon without both of their big forwards Buddy and Roughhead! This will be a huge task for the remainder of the side to lift and the likes of Hale to really step up! But The way Hawthorn play I think they can still come out on top of the out of form Bombers. The Hawks have won 4 of their last 5 losing only to Geelong by under a goal while Essendon is on a 4 game losing streak. Looking closer in the last month they have lost to North, Freo, Melbourne and Richmond! hardly world beaters this lot! The Bombers also have a horrendous record at the MCG. Having lost their past 8 matches in a row. The last time they were able to sing the song was over 12 months ago in round 9 last year.

Hawthorn will press hard and catch the flat footed bombers out with their run and carry tonight. Look for the likes of Suckling, Sheils, Savage, Smith, Burgoyne and little Cyril to run the bombers off their feet just as the fitter Kangaroos did last week. I am also a little surprised to see the Bombers go with all 3 big men Ryder, Bellchambers and Hille? The Hawks have had an issue with height over the past few years and will play a game style that suits their speed tonight. Hawks to win and cover.

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

FUTURE PLAY
COLEMAN MEDAL - J.KENNEDY (WCE)(x20)
RD 14 - 34 goal. 3rd behind Franklin 39.

At the half way mark of the year and Kennedy is having a break out season. He is sitting 3rd on the Goal kicking table only 5 behind the leader Buddy Franklin. Kennedy is averaging 3 goals per game and has kicked that big bag of 10! So you know he has the potential to kick huge bags. He sits behind Franklin who is out this week through suspension and with all the talls going down will be asked to do a lot more than usual. Jack Riewoldt is the other in front and he is having a good year also. But These two players are $2 - $3.50. Far more value in Kennedy @ $10 to carry on his good form and with the Eagles playing so well is a real chance. Am outlaying x2 units for a possible return of x20!

(2.25u @ 10.00 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

PORT @ WCE
PLAYER EXOTIC: MOST GOALS H2H - J.KENNEDY OVER M.LECRA (x1)

Small play here on this exotic market offered @ Centrebet. I like Kennedy to kick more goals than LeCra against the Eagles today at Pattersons Stadium. Main reasons being the form of Kennedy in 2011 has been outstanding with regular bags of 3 and 4 goals. Not to mention that 10 at this ground! While LeCra has been good and last week bobbed up and kicked 5 he has been spending more time up the ground in the midfield. I just see a big game on the cards for Kennedy who is the go to target against the Power in front of his home crowd today. Kennedy is sitting 3rd on the Goal kicking table and averaging over 3 per game.

(1.2u @ 1.85 @ Centrebet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

DOUBLE: STORM +10.5 / SEA EAGLES ML (x2)

I have gone with the ever reliable Melbourne Storm over the Tigers. Melbourne were super impressive last Monday night against the Roosters. Winning without Slater, Cronk, Smith and Nielson. These players will back up and generally do so well. The Tigers have been winning but really haven't played a good 80 minutes yet. They got out of jail over in NZ last week but still good teams find a way to win. On the back of what I saw last week I give the Storm a real shot of upsetting the Tigers up there on the back of a structured and discipline defense. Expect the Storm to put the clamps on Benji and may just win here outright also. Taking the 10.5 start is a gift.

Adding the Storm into Manly SU over the Eels @ brookvale. The Sea Eagles are flying winning 5 in a row and sitting just 1 point off top spot. They Eels are running out of time in season 2011 and I don't see a win coming here. Manly will be without teenage dynamo Hopoate but should regain Watmough who will back up from Origin. Quite simply Manly will be to good for Paramatta especially @ home. Eagles to win well.

(2.4u @ 1.84 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - SWANS +24.5 (x2)

Carlton has been receiving plenty of praise and are touted as a top 3 side and a genuine challenger and rightly so. The Blues have won 3 in a row and are getting their best players on the field with Kruezer back last week, but today will tell a tail as it's always harder 2nd game up. Their last 3 wins were over Brisbane, Port and Melbourne. This is a much tougher test! Sydney have been quietly going about their business winning 5 of their last 6! and sitting right amongst the top 8!

Some big inclusions this week with big Mummy back as well as Jack looking likely to play a full game after starting last week as the sub. These two along with A.Goodes are almost the most important players for the Swans! Having big Mummy back will give his onballers a lot of confidence as he offers much more than just hit outs. Mumford's second efforts are first class. With him and Jack back in the middle the Swans look far more dangerous. One big query on the Blues is how Jamison's ankle has pulled up after he was subbed off last week. For the Blues sake he is a must down back especially with the Swans talls Reid, Goodes, Seaby, Roberts-Thompson and of course Mumford.

Sydney has had the better of the Blues over the past 10 years winning 14 of 16 played. With Carlton winning their last meeting @ the SCG you can expect the Swans to be up for this one and looking for revenge! While I'm not sure they can get the points I do expect the Swans to make life very difficult for the Blues who have had a pretty easy month. Taking the Swans with the 4 goal start.

(2.35 @ 1.85 @ Centrebet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ML - DOCKERS (x4)
ADDING QTR time
ATS - DOCKERS +36.5 (x2)

DOCKERS TO BREAK HOODOO AND WIN @ THE MCG!

Can Fremantle finally break their hoodoo and win in Melbourne @ the MCG? I believe they can. The Dockers come up against the most inconsistent side in the comp right now the Demons who are coming off an embarrassing loss on the big stage against an undermanned Collingwood side last week. This young group is still a long way away from challenging any of the top finalist and if the Dockers see themselves amongst the top 5-6 teams right now then this is a must win!

Just looking at the squads for this match up and both are still without their All Australian Ruckman and the Dockers received a double blow with Mundy and Ballantine both out also. On the flip side they will welcome back last years fairytale story and  much loved Michael Barlow! Just seeing him run out for his first senior game since breaking his leg almost 12 months ago will give this Dockers team a huge lift!

The Dockers just seem to have more harded bodies all over the park compared to Melbourne who still seem very undersized. Dockers defense with McPharlin, Grover, Duffield, Broughton and Ibbotson look solid. Up against the 3rd gamer Gawn, Watts, Green Jarrah should be able to contain. Then with Fyfe, Hill, DeBoer and Barlow leading the way in the midfield and Pav, Mayne, Bradley up forward just seem to have too much size for Frawley and Rivers who were found out against the Big Magpies forwards last week. Mark Harvey would have mad note of this and rest assured will stretch this back line by throwing Johnson, Clarke and Griffin down their also.

The last time Fremantle  won here at the MCG was in fact against Melbourne in 2007! If this team wants to be a contender and taken seriously this year they must beat Melbourne and more importantly win at the G! The Dockers to finally get the monkey off the back and end a 9 game drought @ the MCG today! Dockers win!

(3.85u @ 2.05 @ Sportingbet)
(2.3G @ 1.88 @ Sportsbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - COWBOYS -4.5 (x1.5)

The Warriors travel to Nth Queensland tonight to try and avoid a 3rd straight defeat having gone down to the Tigers and the Roosters in recent weeks. Sorry to say this task isn't any easier! The Cowboys will welcome their captains in Thurston and Scott back this week having lost for the first time last week for a month with them sitting out. The Cowboys have been good all year and are once again turning Dairy Farmers into a feared paddock to play on. In fact the Warriors have not won here since 2002! losing all of their last 6 matches here! Cowboys will be to good and cover tonight.

(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

1ST Q - LIONS (x2)

Brisbane have had 2 dread full weeks and I expect them to at least start strong against the Tigers @ the Gabba tonight! Just looking at the Tigers recent form and it isn't flattering 1-3 with the bye in there also. This group has had a journey to say the least as well, From Darwin to Sydney, then having to return via bus from Sydney to Melbourne last week and now venture up to Brisbane! that's some serious kms! will that have an effect? We will see. The other reason I like the Lions in the opener is due to the fact the Tigers have won just 1 first quarter all year (against Essendon by 1pt)and are 1-9-1! They typically start games very slow then work their way back. Brisbane are a surprising 5-6 in 1st quarters.

So quite simply due to Richmond's poor record in the opener and their recent travel, I like Brisbane to get off to a good start tonight.
(1.85u @ 2.10 @ Sportsbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - BOMBERS -7.5 (x3)

After their explosive start to the season @ 5-2-1, Essendon haven't won since round 8! going 0-3 plus a bye. Its fair to say the honeymoon period is over! However looking closely at the time this team began to struggle its no coincidence it was after captain Jobe went down and Hocking was suspended. Well both these guys are back today which is a huge plus. In fact its not often you like to see a team make 5 changes but I must say on this occasion I do. Hird has recalled Stanton, Bellchambers, Lonergan, Pears for his first game of the year as well as Hocking as I mentioned. All of a sudden this Bombers team is close to full strength.

Another factor that swings in favour of the Bombers is this game is being played at Etihad. They are 4-0 at this ground this year and clearly prefer to play under the roof. Their press doesn't seem as effective on the bigger grounds as it does at Etihad. Nth are 3-3 under the roof in 2011. The Roos have won 2 in a row for the first time this year but with wins over Adelaide in melbourne and the Suns so they should. Its tough for any team to get 3 on the trott especially a young group like the Kangas.

Watson, Stanton, Hocking, Lonergan and Bellchambers leading the midfield charge get the Bombers back on track and they will enjoy success at thedir favourite venue here today. Bombers win and cover!


(3.3u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

DOUBLE MARGIN: BULLDOGS 1-39 / CATS 1-39 (x5)

Tonight we will witness possibly the two most out of form side in the game right at this point! The one advantage the Bulldogs have is that this one is being played in Melbourne and @ Etihad. A place the struggling Crows just cannot win! The Dogs have shown some small signs of hope in their recent losses to St.Kilda and Hawthorn. While Adelaide haven't given a yelp! I don't have a lot of confidence in  the Bulldogs I must admit and was weary of even outlaying x1 unit. However I do believe they will get over the line in an ugly fashion tonight by barley 2 goals.

Due to my lack of confidence in the Dogs by themselves, I have Doubled them up with Geelong to beat the Saints under the same margin. Geelong are flying. Still undefeated and are managing to find ways to win. They will be without Selwood tonight and the next month after he was dealt one of the more unusual suspensions I have seen? But with the depth this club has and the way they are playing this shouldn't be of any real concern. Remembering Selwood was knocked out inside the first 10 mins of the round one clash between these two teams. St.kilda have found some form winning their past 3 and will feel quietly confident in knocking off Geelong  and rightly so. However I see this one being another close battle with the Cats getting over the line by about 2 or 3 goals.

Having doubled these two bets which I am only confident in half a unit each I increase the return significantly! risking just over x1 unit to return x5! Much happier doing this bet now.

(1.35u @ 4.73 @ Sportingbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

DOUBLE: TITANS +12.5 / STORM +10.5 (x2)
(Buying points)

This is a do or die match for the Titans against the Bunnies tonight. They are still clinging to the slim chance of playing finals in 2011 and have publicly stated this. They got that much needed win last week all be it over a depleted Dragons side but it was just what this group needed. Some confidence in seeing out the full 80 mins and coming out in front! Their side looks alot more settled with Zillman now a permanant fixture at fullback and little Presto combining with Prince in the Halves. Their pack consists of Bailey, Laffranchi, Minichiello, Bird and Harrison, with O'Dwyer and James coming of the bench! This is one of the best looking Packs in the Game!

I really can't put my finger on why this club hasn't won more games. Perhaps they have been there abouts for the last few years and with a somewhat aging list was due for a lapse? Either way I like their chances tonight against Souths who themselves are not travelling well, Having lost their last 3! With Inglis and Taylor backing up and a swagful of injuries still I think the Titans may win this one outright. Happy to take the 12.5 start.

2nd Game I have gone with the ever reliable Melbourne Storm over the Tigers. Melbourne were super impressive last Monday night against the Roosters. Winning without Slater, Cronk, Smith and Nielson. These players will back up and generally do so well. The Tigers have been winning but really haven't played a good 80 minutes yet. They got out of jail over in NZ last week but still good teams find a way to win. On the back of what I saw last week I give the Storm a real shot of upsetting the Tigers up there on the back of a structured and discipline defense. Expect the Storm to put the clamps on Benji and may just win here outright also. Taking the 10.5 start is a gift.

(2.4u @ 1.84 @ Centrebet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ST.G @ BRIS
EXOTIC - TIME OF 1ST TRY - 11TH MINUTE OR LATER OR NO TRY (x1)

Rolling with this exotic bet once again here in the Dragons clash with the Broncos up at Suncorp tonight. Both sides will have players missing and backing up due to Wednesdays Origin and I think this match could be a real grind. The Dragons as we know pride themselves on Defense and the Broncos have also lifted this area of their game in 2011. The Dragons usually take the shot at goal if given the opportunity early and that suits us fine. Tipping a tough battle through out and a try less first 10 minutes here again.

(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

STATE OF ORIGIN GAME 2
EXOTIC - TIME OF 1ST TRY - 11TH MINUTE OR LATER OR NO TRY (x1)

Huge clash tonight between QLD and NSW in whats tipped to be a wet night in Sydney. The Blues have shortened with the line now into just +2 which would have to be due to the conditions. I expect a huge defensive effort from the Blues even more so than we saw in Game 1. They will be desperate to square up the series and send the 2011 Origin to a decider. being that I see this one being played in close and a bit tighter than usual in these conditions, tries may be hard to come by so rolling with a try less defensive battle  inside the first 10 minutes of the game.

(1.25u @ 1.80 @ Sportingbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

1ST H - STORM (x1.5)
ATS - STORM -2 (x1)

Both sides are hit with players missing due to Origin. Most notable the Storms big 3. Smith, Slater and Cronk. But the Struggling Roosters have to travel to Melbourne without their play makers Pierce, Mino and SKD through injury. Swell as Miles. Looking through their line up they are very young especially from 1-5 and a couple of front rowers. Expect the Storm to attack these areas with Melbournes pack of A.Blair, Procter and Norrie. The thing I like about the Storm is all players know their role. I like the inclusion of 3 rep players Quinn, Duffie and Champion. Also Hinchcliffe given the 9 jumper will do a good job. Wippod will be the key play maker and kicker tonight and this will be the key. He has had a good year and will lift with his parters all missing. I simply cannot trust the Roosters and happy to be on Melbournes defense at home.

(1.8u @ 1.83 @ Sportingbet)
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Centrebet)

NBA OFFICIAL PLAY

NBA FINALS SERIES RESULT - HEAT 4-3 (x3.5)
NBA FINALS GAME 6
1ST Q - HEAT -1.5 (x1)
PLAYER EXOTICS - JAMES TOTAL POINTS over 25.5 (x2)
2ND H - HEAT -4.5 (x2)

MIAMI TO TAKE CHAMPIONSHIP 4-3

Wow! What a series, this will go down as one of the greatest battles of all time. So surely we have another game to go right..... Absolutely! Miami are down 2-3 and this is a must win game! They are back on their home deck and this will play a huge influence on this Championship. The Heat were galant in Dallas but won just 1 of 3 in what were all close games. Through out this series Miami has dominated the inside, Rebounds and Points in the Paint(+32 in the Series). Although they lost game 5 they take some big positives from it. As in that game Miami Finally leveled the FT made with 21-21 and had more 3pt attempts.

One area that Miami must curb the MAVS domination is in the second 1/2 of the final quarter. Since game 1 Dallas has outscored Miami 67-29! +38 points! This is where Dirk takes over. Miami must address this and close out games much better. There is no question Dirk is the Key for Dallas. When he is on the floor the MAVS are +67pts and without him -44 during The 2011 Finals. There is no question LeBron has been down on his game lately and I expect him to turn it on tonight on his home floor. There is no question this guy has the ability to tear this one open and I see a huge night for L.James 30+

I still see Miami winning the championship as I feel they get this one then ride to game 7 full of confidence and take the series. Therefor have taken Miami winning 4-3 instead of playing this game outright as odds are tight and 5pts is a bit high given the recent history. I do however feel Miami will take this game on right form the start in the 1st quarter and won't hold up. Miami to lead at quarter time and win outright.

(3.5u @ 2.0 @ Sportsbet)

(1.1u @ 1.95 @ Sportingbet)

(2.35u @ 1.85 @ Sportsbet)

(2.3u @ 1.87 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

PLAYER EXOTICS - DREAMTEAM H2H
N. LOWER (FREO) OVER A. WELSH (ESS) (x1)

Don't play many of these player exotic bets but this one jumped out to me. We have Andrew Welsh of Essendon playing his first game of the year on the the longest road trip @ the wide open spaces of Patterson  Stadium in the West up against Docker Nick Lower. Lower has a season avg of 74.1 and has been in good touch with scores of 89, 83 & 119 in his last 3 games with an avg of 97. Tough ask for Welsh in his 1st game, you wonder how much gametime he will play. Last year Welsh averaged 71. Lower for me to win this head 2 head battle.

(1.3u @ 1.77 @ Centrebet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

MARGIN - TIGERS 1-12 (x2)

The Tigers face the Warriors today at one of the more daunting venues @ MT Smart in front of the natives. The Warriors have been in good form winning 5 in a row before last weeks lapse against the Roosters. They just couldn't hold the ball in that game and will feel much more comfortable at home. While the Tigers have been winning while not playing anywhere near their potential. They received an early blow last week losing Lote inside the first 5 minutes but to their credit they managed to grind out a win in Golden Point against a determined Knights side.

Both these sides are virtually untouched by Origin this week and go in with strong squads. Warrior Lillyman was the unlucky Queenslander left out and the Tigers regain McKinnon which allows Moltzen to move into the centers. For me this is a 50/50 match so the Tigers are value and if Benji gets his Tigers clicking could easily come home with a win. I have taken the Tigers 1-12 as I see this one being close.

(0.65u @ 4.05 @ Sportingbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ML - RAIDERS (x1)

Canberra travels up to Brisbane to face the "Baby Broncos" today in a simply must win for the club. They have have a dreadful 2011 thus far and still have stars on the sidelines with Campese injured again as well as Dugan and Thompson. However they face the Broncos at the perfect time with 5 players missing, Lockyer, Hannant, Parker, Thiday and Yow Yei through Origin duty. Add to this Hodges and Teo still injured. The Raiders have made a few forced changes. Ferguson moving to the centers which will allow him to be more involved. Shillington and Leroy Lars added to the Bench are the big ones for me. These guys will add a real punch coming into the game once the fatigue sets in.

The Raiders still have one of the best forward packs in the game with White, Fenson, Tilse, Harrison, Picker and Tounge. They would have gotten some confidence in last week with jumping out to a 22-0 lead early. They couldn't sustain that though and that will be the focus today. If the Raiders were to ever get a win over the Broncos it is today. Raiders to finally get back on the winners list in a close one today.

(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

DOUBLE - CATS ML / SWANS ML (x4)

Geelong are still undefeated! 10-0! This is quite extraordinary considering the off season the club had. With many suggesting a major fall. If any club had an excuse to drop off the pace a little it would have been Geelong. But they find themselves undefeated and on top of the ladder at the half way point of the season. The Cats have superior talent and natural leaders across every line. Scarlett is in career best form. Taylor is holding down CHB once again, Ottens is fit and showing the comp just how good he is, S.Johnson is on fire, Selwood, Bartel, Kelly, Corey, Chapman etc are just do their thing, and just when you think that's all they have to offer, well then this new breed of kids in Menzel, Duncan, Vardy, T.Hunt, Christensen and Cowan burst onto the seen to add something new!

The Hawks have also been in fine form winning their last 5! they have had moments of lapse where they have found themselves behind in many games and just finding something to get over the line. Buddy has been named but with a calf issue you have to wonder? for me Geelong are just in red hot form and with the luxury of bring in Chapman and Milburn the side just keeps improving. Geelong has won the past 5 encounters against the Hawks and seem to have their measure. I'm tipping a cracker match but expect the Cats to win in the end.

In the other match I've taken the Swans SU to do the job over the Tigers. Sydney were unstoppable last week and I see this form carrying over here. Richmond is coming off an awful showing in Darwin and now the bye. Which hasn't done many teams any favours. The Swans will welcome back K.Jack who typifies what this group is about. The Tigers are improving there is no question but to face the Swans @ the SCG in a tricky scheduling spot, I think they come up short. Swans by 4 goals.

(4.9u @ 1.82 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - SUNS +21.5 (x2)
Added Live quarter time ATS - SUNS +24.5 (x3)

SUNS TO PUT 4 QUARTERS TOGETHER

North Melbourne travel up to the Gold Coast for what will be Boomer Harvey's record breaking game, making him officially the All time games record holder for the Kangaroos. A huge achievement for Brent. Whats slightly odd is the Kangaroos chose to celebrate this last week when he equaled the record in Melbourne. The Roos put on a show and easily accounted for the Crows and put on a huge "who ha" for Boomers achievement. My only concern is will this relatively young group be able to lift once again on the road?

For me the answer is no. History shows young teams generally struggle interstate and can produce a let down in performance coming of such a high the week before (Richmond in Darwin ring any bells?). The Suns are definitely on the improve. In fact they have out played the opposition in various parts of games but its the odd quarter or periods in games that lets them down. They were fantastic last week against the heavy favourites West Coast all bar the opening 10 minutes where they allowed 5 goals to none. the lead the Crows at quatertime and were in front of Geelong here @ home for the first half. But the big question is can this group put 4 quarters together?

The Suns believe it or not have one of the best Midfield's in the game! G.Ablett is in ominous form, Rischitelli has been good all year. Swallow and McKenzie are playing like 100 game players in their rookie year and big Zack Smith is a young Dean Cox clone! He is giving these guys first use and that is why the Suns are one of the best at the clearances! Gold Coast would see this game as one they can definitely win and they will be keen to get that first win @ their new home Metricon Stadium and get off the bottom of the ladder! Suns will keep this one close and it wouldn't surprise me to see them win outright.

(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Centrebet)

(0.3u @ 11.0 @ Sportsbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - SAINTS -11.5 (x4)

St.Kilda and the Western Bulldogs meet in what looks like an elimination final in June? Who would have thought. But this is the reality of this contest. Both top 4 sides over the past 3 years, now clinging on to a slim final 8 chance in 2011. The Bulldogs are really struggling, they showed little glimpses of improvement against the Hawks but were still well beaten, but last week down in Geelong they were a rabble. Geelong did as they pleased, the end margin of 10 goals flatters them.

St.Kilda have shown improvement. Winning 2 of their last 3 and putting up a competitive 1st half last week against the Premiers. Ross Lyon has introduced a number of new players and it has giving this club a breath of fresh air. The move of Dal Santo to the back half has been a good one. BJ Goodard is starting to find touch and Riewoldt always gives his all! The Saints will be without Montagna this week which is a blow but they regain Jason Gram. The Dogs on the other hand have made 6 changes this week! Cooney makes his long awaited return but you have to wonder is he ready? Also ruckman Hudson comes back in. You have to question playing both Minson and Hudson in the same team? The Dogs dropped Hargrave, Lake, Grant, Hill, Wallis and Mulligan. And are still without Barry Hall and Gilbee. Far to many holes for my liking.

St.Kilda has won all 4 matches between these sides over the last 2 years including 2 Preliminary Finals! They seem to have their measure. With the amount of changes to the Bulldogs line up and their recent form, I just cannot see them turning it around tonight. St.Kilda have the better form and seem to be turning the corner. Saints will be to good, they win and cover!

(4.4u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ML - DRAGONS (x1.5)

The Dragons are without up to 7 players for this match with Origin 2 on Wednesday night. They also have the unusual feeling of not winning last week. They played out a draw with the Eels. Whilst most will believe the Dragons are there for the taking I don't think that will be the case. They still have a number of class players running out Friday night in Weyman, Nightingale, Fien, Hunt, Young and Captain Hornby. And let's not forget they are playing the Titans and at Home. The Gold Coast just cannot take a trick in 2011 and with all the recent player signings I think they are already looking to 2012. Dragons will still be good enough to get the 2 points in this one.

(1.75u @ 1.86 @ Sportsbet)

NBA OFFICIAL PLAY

NBA FINALS GAME 5

1ST H - HEAT +0.5 (x3)

MIAMI TO COME OUT FIRING!

This series is turning into one of the greats! with the last 3 games coming down to the last shot! Dallas held on last game to record a much needed home win and level the series 2-2. Here comes the all imortant game 5! for Dallas this is a must win as the next two games if required are in Miami. They would not want to head to Miami down 2-3 and try to hold off the Heat in both those games. For Miami whilst this game is still huge and if they can win will almost certainly win the Title. If they fail and fall 2-3 behind at least they have home court to close the series.

Having said all that I still think Miami can win this game and will win the Title. But the odds are a little slim with the game almost even. I do beleive Miami will start well as they have the last 2 games leading @ the half by 5 and 2. They were on of the highest ranked in the regular season in 1st halves this year. At some point of all games Dallas has found themselves double digits down but has had the ability to come back. For me this trend continues, Miami get the early jump and Dallas claw their way back for another epic Finals game for 2011!

(3.3u @ 1.95 @ Sportsbet)

WEEKLY MULTI + LAY BET ADDED

It's fair to say I haven't had much luck in this category lately and am down 8+ units for the year, which is why this type of betting is not recommended. However it is fun. This week I will have another dip and assess after then.

WEEKLY MULTI

AFL - ATS - SAINTS -11.5
AFL - MARGIN - SWANS 1-39
AFL - ATS - MAGPIES -28.5

15/6
LAY BET - AFL - ATS - DEMONS +29.5 (x3)

As the first 2 legs of this multi have come in I am going to lay off a little to ensure I don't loose at all. Taking the Demons +29.5 for x3 units which means the following:

MAGPIES WIN 29+ collect 10.94u (original bet minus lay amount)
DEMONS STAY WITHIN 28pts collects 1.03u (win lay bet minus orignal multi outlay)
or if the unheard of happens where Magpies win by exactly 29 and middling this bet winning both! Highly unlikely but we can dream :)

So as I still really like Colliingwood covering the 28.5 have a free hit essentially at 10+ units and not losing any.
Outlaying x2 units for a possible return of 14.25

(2.0u @ 8.12 @ Sportsbet)
(3.3u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA OFFICIAL PLAY

NBA FINALS GAME 4
ATS - HEAT +3 (x2)

MIAMI AND LEBRON EDGE ONE STEP CLOSER TO THE BIG PRIZE!

Miami are 2-1 up in the series after winning game 3 in Dallas. The Mavs play the next 2 at home and you would expect they win at least one if not both right? Wrong! Yes most will be playing the zig zag option, Dallas has to win, won't lose two in a row at home, won't fall 3-1 down in the series. Blah blah blah.......

Simple fact is Miami has more talent and is the better team! Besides a fade out n the final quarter of game 2 they have dominated! Dirk is right up their with the best of them. A real superstar and big time performer of the game. Trouble for him and Dallas is Miami has 2 guys like him! James and Wade must be ranked in the top 6-7 players in the game right now! And Bosh well he goes alright also. Dirk needs some help and right now, Chandler and Haywood are doing their best defensively. Terry and Marion are falling just short and Kidd and Berea just isn't getting it done.

Looking back at game 3, James had 17 points, Bosh shot just 7-18 from the field, Miami shot just 12 free throws and were out rebounded x6...... And the still won on the road!Miami has had that edge in close and just seem to physical for the MAVS since the return of Haslem. Offensively you just cannot contain all of them. The lose in game 2 has hardened this Heat side and they won't be letting up. Miami may very well win this one but happy again to take the points here.

(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Say Goodbye To One Of The Greats: Shaq To Retire

Tribute to the one and only Shaquille O'Neal!

Say Goodbye To One Of The Greats: Shaq To Retire

NBA OFFICIAL PLAY

NBA FINALS GAME 3
ATS - HEAT +2.5 (x2)

Miami will be filthy on how they failed to close out game 2. Up 15 in complete control with 6 minutes remaining and Miami fell into the limp conservative run the shot clock down and throw up a long shot instead of sticking with what worked all game driving to the bucket and running their offense. Now instead of heading to Dallas 2-0 up they find themselves with the series locked 1-1.

Even though Miami got it all wrong down the stretch in game 2, they still did a hell of a lot right through the majority of the game. To be up 15 at that stage and completely dominate the contest was outstanding! Wade and James are proving too much to handle for the Dallas defense and with that loss burning inside both these superstars I expect a red hot Heat tonight! Happy to take the points here

(2.3u @ 1.87 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

DOUBLE - HAWKS -15.5 / BLUES -15.5 (x5)
2ND H - HAWKS -16.5 (x2) (Hawks down by 11. Match line -5.5)
ATS - BLUES -24.5 (x2)
2ND H - BLUES -15.5 (x1)


(4.5u @ 2.12 @ Sportsbet)
(2.25 u @ 1.9 @
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Centrebet)
(1.1u @ 1.9 @ Sportingbet

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

HT/FT - STORM (x2)

(2.05u @ 1.99 @ Centrebet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

DOUBLE - COWBOYS +12.5 / TIGERS ML (x2)

(2.25u @ 1.89 @ Centrebet)

WEEKLY MULTI

WEEKLY MULTI

Havent placed a MULTI for a couple weeks and that is the right way to bet this way just on occasions. I have hit just 2 from first 8 weeks and am down 6+ units in this category. Time to turn that around this week.

AFL - ATS - MAGPIES -31.5
AFL - ML - SWANS
NRL - WARRIORS ML

(2u @ 6.65 @ Sportsbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY

ML - WARRIORS (x1)

(1.25u @ 1.81 @ Centrebet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY x2

ATS - TITANS -2 (x1.5)
2ND H - TITANS -1.5 (x1)

Gold Coast have their backs against the wall in a must win game to keep their season alive. They face the Panthers who are on the improve but do play this one at home. Both these teams were right in the mix during last years finals yet here we are and a loss for either could put an end to their finals campaign for 2011. The Titans side is starting to look a bit better with Bird and Harrison back in the starting line up. I think the venue will tip this one in favor of the home side who had zero luck last week will finally get the ball to bounce the right way tonight. Titans by 8

(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Centrebet)
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

ML - SWANS (x1.5)

(1.45u @ 2.05 @ Centrebet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY x3

1ST Q - SUNS +15.5 (x1)
ATS - SUNS +67.5 (x1)
4TH Q - SUNS (x3)

The Gold Coast Suns really impressed me last week against the Cats especially in the 1st Half. They will be some sort of a team in years to come. They travel over to Western Australia today for the little champs 200th! Gary Ablett is leading this group well and I think they can be some what competitive in this one. The Eagles while have had a terrific start to 2011 they received a reality check last week! They are still a very young side and were wooden splinted last season so will have a few ups and downs to come. The loss last week would have rocked their confidence and they wouldn't want to take this young hungry Gold Coast side lightly.

As I stated earlier, the Suns were impressive early last week and have started games of late fairly well. I expect them to be close enough to cover the 15.5 in the opener and stay with in the 11 goal line.

(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)
(1.0u @ 4.00 @ Centrebet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY x3

DOUBLE - CATS -24.5 / MAGPIES -15.5 (x3)
4TH Q - CATS -10.5 (x1.5)
4TH Q - MAGPIES -9.5 (x1)

Geelong are flying! Undefeated and have an imposing record down in Geelong. Good luck Bulldogs! The Dogs are in a massive hole right now and I just don't see them being competitive against the Cats today. Gee long has the luxury of Enright, Ottens and Taylor returning also. Cats quite simply to good especially at Kardinia Park. The only thing that may save them is the weather but for me its the Cats by 25+. Gee long hasn't started games all that well of late but are exceptional in the second half. If this trend continues I may bet on Geelong in the second half also.

I have doubled this up with the Premiers to once again prevail in the Grandfinal rematch. St.Kilda were good last week against an injury riddled Dockers over in the West and that has done us favors with the odds. If this match was 2 weeks ago it may have been a lot different. The Saints now after finding a bit of touch must face the Magpies in red hot form at the MCG returning from Perth. To much to ask here. Collingwood win this one over 15.


(3u @ 2.06 @ Sportingbet)
(1.5u @ 2.05 @ Centrebet)
(1.1u @ 1.9 @ Sportingbet)

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY

AFL LIVE QUARTER TIME
ATS - BOMBERS -21.5 (x2)
Adding 4TH Q - BOMBERS -6.5 (x2)

As stated via Twitter I liked Essendon but thought Melbourne would star strong which they did but still trailed at the 1st change. With Sylvia looking doubtful for remainder i'm jumping on the Bombers now @ -21.5. Really cannot see the Demons staying within 4 goals here. Bombers may run away with this one.

(2.3u @ 1.88 @ Centrebet)
(2.2u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

NRL OFFICIAL PLAY x2

DOUBLE - DRAGONS ML / BRONCOS ML (x2)
EXOTIC - STG V PARA TIME OF 1ST TRY - after 8 min (x1.5)

Keeping it simple in tonights two league matches. I like the Dragons to have to much class and experience for the inconsistent Eels and Brisbane to get back on the winners list over the Sharks.

The Dragons will be without stars Morris and Cooper tonight but have plenty of depth and experience to cover. The Eels will throw everything at them but the Dragons defense is second to none! And the Eels simply leak to many points to stay in this one. dragons by 10. I have also taken a slightly different bet in this game where no try be scored inside the first 8 minutes. With the Dragons generally opting for the shot at goal if giving the chance early and there fierce defense I can't see anyone crossing over so early.

Next up I like Brisbane to overcome their recent form slump and get over the Sharks. The addition of Lockyer and big Sam will be enough to guide them over the line. I expect a good show from at the Sharks as they were impressive last start against the Storm in Melbourne. They have their leader back and rested but I feel they still have to many holes with recent injuries to Gardner, Smith and Douglas. Broncos win a close one by 4.

(2.0u @ 2.01 @ Sportsbet)
(2.0u @ 1.75 @ Sportsbet)

NBA OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - HEAT -4.5 (x2)

MIAMI EDGE CLOSER TO THE PRIZE

I am again rolling with Miami here in game two for much of the same reasons as in game one. I am surprised the line has opened exactly the same. Miami have clearly lifted their game and playing @ home is critical in this series. As stated in Game one post Miami is a much more rounded side now with Haslem crashing the boards and applying his energy and also with Miller finding touch and offering another option.

Miami has only given up over 91 points in the Playoffs this year here @ home once and that was in game one of the Phili series where they clearly didn't have their minds on the job and got punished. I don't see this trend ending tonight. Miami are a much tougher match up defensively for the Mavs. They are extremely quick and just dominate the boards! Its worth noting Dirk has a tendon issue in his non scoring hand. Will this cause a problem? Physically I wouldn't think so, but mentally? It may play on his mind. You could almost feel this group go from a star studded line up to a championship team in Game two of the Chicago series. During that game Haslem returned and Miller came to play! For me Miami as in game one has the upper hand and with James at the top of his game and full of confidence this one will finish in the same fashion. Heat by 8 - 10.

(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA OFFICIAL PLAY

ATS - HEAT -4 (x1.5)

MIAMI TO HAVE PLENTY TO CHEER ABOUT

 

Rolling with the Heat @ home here in Game 1! Miami and the big 3 has been super impressive in this finals campaign. James the standout! He has done it all. Scoring, clutch shooting and his defense! Simply outstanding! And if he is having a rare off night, look out for Wade! Bosh has also stepped up with a few outstanding performances. To many weapons here. With Bibby and Anthony just doing a job and Miller finding his range the "others" are contributing also. For me the big bonus for Miami has been the return of Haslem. He gives that energy and desperation this team lacked from the bench!

Make no mistake this series will not be all one way traffic! Dallas has been outstanding and well deserved in their own right. Dirk is almost unstoppable. Their other pieces aren't as lethal as Miami's big 3 but they're have a lot more depth. Kidd, Chandler, Marion, Terry and that little man Berea. Dallas got over the Lakers 4-0 and put the Thunder away 4-1, both convincingly! Dirk has been shooting out of this world! And the team as a whole also, especially from beyond the arc.

For me Miami has won it's last 5 here @ home. The different roles James played through out the Chicago series really impressed! Expect him at some stage to lock down on Dirk! And expect Miami as a whole to pressure Dallas's Shooters. This will be the difference as Miami can score from anywhere and if one don't get ya the other 2 will! Miami to win and cover at home in game one!

(1.65u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)