Welcome all..... I live in Australia and have been punting on Sports for the past 6 years. Looking forward to another sucessful year in 2013...... I enjoyed another sucessful Campaign in 2012 which was my 2nd year posting here. Detailed results can be seen below.

I bet on the AFL , NRL as well as US Basketball, the NBA & NCAA CBB. Here I will post my plays as a record with regular write ups. It is most important that you create a Twitter account and follow me @baywatchbets as all my plays are posted there first then followed up with a detailed post here. Be sure to follow twitter below!!!

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I play on ML, ATS, Quarters, Halves, Doubles and occasionally on Player Exotics. My goal is to hit close to 60%. However 53% will give a nice profit.

I bet in units. Though out the seasons I will play x1 unit, x1.5 units, x2 units and on occasions huge x3, x4 & even x5 unit plays! On average x1 unit should be 3.5% of your bankroll so adjust accordingly. This is very important as we are investing not gambling!

So for example your x1 unit may be to win $100, so I bet $110 @ odds of 1.91. Betting at these odds your unit outlay would be:

x1 unit play - $110 to win $100

x1.5 unit play - $165 to win $150

x2 unit play - $220 to win $200 etc.

I adjust the amount I bet according to the odds taken. for example playing x1 unit @ odds of 1.85 I then have to up my bet to $115 to win $100 and so on.

Patience and Bankroll management is the key.

Good luck all and enjoy the ride....

Saturday, June 25

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY x2

ATS - W.BULLDOGS -33.5 (x2)
PLAYER EXOTIC - DT H2H - S.HIGGINS over D.CROSS (x1)

The Western Bulldogs got a much needed win last week over the Crows and cling to the slim chance of playing finals in 2011. That will all be for nothing if they don't capitalize on today's match with the the Gold Coast. This will be the 2nd match between these two side with the Dogs winning easily by 71pts in round 3. While the young Suns have shown signs of improvement since then with winning 2 games and pushing some more fancied sides, they are still very inconsistent. They have and average losing margin of 51 points this year and that is about where I see this one ending up.

The Suns will welcome back young guns Smith and Swallow who look certain to be leaders of this club for years to come. While the Dogs who received a boost last week with Cooney returning, now will welcome the return of their spearhead Barry Hall! This is a huge inclusion against the younger bodied Suns as Bock will be forced to play tight on Hall.

It's the Bulldogs for me who will show no mercy against the Suns up their in QLD today. It's amazing what a win can do for a group that has been struggling. This will lift the confidence of the players and with key inclusions Cooney and Hall both back I see a big win for the Dogs.

After having a close look at the player exotic markets, I have found one that I feel offers good value. Shaun Higgins to post more DT points than Daniel Cross. Since returning from injury, Rocket has moved Higgins to the back  half in a more quarterback  type role which really suits as he is a great user of the pill. His DT scores have gone 73, 84, 95 & 105 in the last 4 weeks. So as you can see he is getting better each week. This is the game he will love and should get plenty of ball all over the ground. The last time the Dogs played the Suns Higgins scored 126! Cross has been a reliable servant for the dogs but over the past month has had scores of 56, 91, 51 & 86. So a bit below average for him. with odds of 1.97 for Higgins and 1.82 for Cross, I feel they have them the wrong way round. Higgins to have a big game against the smaller bodies of the suns.

(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)
(1.05u @ 1.97 @ Centrebet)
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