NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

GAME 2
Boston @ Miami
ATS - CELTICS +8 (x1) WIN

Well the Celtics clearly weren't ready for the well rested Heat in game 1 coming off a tough game 7 just days earlier. Rest is more important to this older C's team than just about any other. I'm sticking with  my original assessment though in that I believe Boston can make a series of this. Alot went against Boston in that first game, I expect a few things to go their way tonight.

Garnett was the only Celtic to produce anything in game one as we expected we would in the absence of Bosh. Ray Allen was a shadow of his former self, Rondo looked tentative and Peirce was just off his game. Add to that those tech fouls and its no wonder the Heat won so convincingly. I expect the Celtics to be much better prepaid for this one.
Peirce, Allen and Rondo will be ready and I expect at least 2 of the 3 to give KG some much needed support on offence. I also think Miami may be getting a little ahead of themselves. James was seen taunting and laughing at the expense of KG and the Celtics at the death of game one. Didn't they learn anything from last year? Dirk sure made them pay.
Expect the C's to have the fire in belly and be ready! Not sure if they can tie the series but expect this one to be much closer!
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTI #8

Risking x1u to win just under 7u

*NRL - COWBOYS -3.5
*AFL - SAINTS PK
*AFL - HAWKS 1-39

(1u @ 7.80 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

GAME 2
OKC @ San Antonio
ATS - SPURS -4.5 (x2) WIN

OKC had their chance last game and took it right to the Spurs as I thought they would. Being 9 points up in the 4th really should have won the game. But as a quality side does the Spurs rallied and took over the game. If not for a meaningless Harden 3 at the buzzer would have also covered the spread. This was their chance, they blew it. Spurs will be ready come game 2!

Durants influence was well curbed by Wallace and he looks the most likely to get this monster job for the rest of the series now. Durant still got his shot but Pop would have loved what his man did out there. The Spurs were off last game all bar the final quarter. They were off their shot, didn't crash the boards and turned the ball over way too many times. This wont happen here.

I think the Spurs regroup and realize this was one that they stole. As I stated earlier, this was OKC best chance to steal a game on the road in game one. Game two will go very different. Spurs respond and win well tonight.
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL

GAME 1

Boston @ Miami
ATS - CELTICS +8.5 (x1.5) LOSS

Boston will go into this series with a fair amount of confidence having beaten Miami in their past 3 encounters. Sure that was only the regular season, post season is a whole different ball game but its 3 zip either way you look at it. Miami will be well rested and ready, while the Celtics had to guts out a win in game 7 to get past the 76ers and be here tonight. This is a big  advantage for Miami.

However I see many areas tonight that favour the visitors. Firstly Bosh is still missing, This is huge against an inform KG and hard at it Bass. I see these two guys playing a huge roll for the Celtics tonight whole will now be up against Turiaf and Anthony.... Need I saw more.

Another area and a big factor is at the point. Miami's biggest issue in their 2 year existence as this group has been the ability to stop an elite point guard. Rondo is exactly that! He is in great form posting yet another triple double last start and will be the difference here tonight. His ability to work on Miami's weakness and create the best shot for his team will keep this game close.

Miami clearly has the 2 best players on the court James and Wade. The question is can they carry this team yet again? after 3 outstanding games to wrap up the series against Indiana and plenty of rest maybe? But the Defense of the Celtics is far more superior than that they faced against the Pacers. Allen and Pierce are yet to really get going also.

Alot to like about the Celtics tonight especially getting 8.5pts start. Celtics keep this one close tonight in a low scoring affair.
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

OKC @ San Antonio
ML - THUNDER (x1.5) LOSS

Game one of the Western Conference Final. This series should be awesome! I really like OKC's chances here to catch the Spurs off guard in game one. San Antonio are in great form no doubt but they haven't had much of a challenge so far this post season. Utah and an injured Clippers team really? Compared the the Thunder who have swept last years Champs Dallas and dealt with an extremely tough match up in the Lakers. Two very experienced playoff teams. This would have hardened Oklahoma and given them the world of belief and confidence that their time is now!
OKC are a tough match up for the Spurs. Durant the most obvious will prove to much for the rookie Lenayrd. Then it will be up to Wallace who is a good defender but can he match it with KD all night? Durants length will test the whole spurs defense tonight. If he gets going look out!
Then theirs Westbrook who's match up with Parker could define the series. Parker has been is career best form while Westbrook is capable of beating anybody. This is one to watch. I like Perkins and Ibaka to frustrate Duncan and Blair defensively and that's all they need to do. These guys have been huge in these playoffs and held their own against the Lakers bigs. This challenge is just as tough but I see them matching.
The real wild card for mine is Harden. He comes in off the bench and will have the Spurs second unit to contend with. Manu, Wallace, Diaw etc. The Spurs bench production has been one of their strengths and now if Harden can match them and he will give them plenty to think about I like the Thunder to steal one here and turn this series on its head!
I see real value @ $3.00 plus in the Thunder to win SU tonight. 5pt start is sitting on the fence as this isn't enough of a start to feel safe as so often in close games this line gets blown out in the last 90 seconds. Go for the value! Thunder win by 6!
(0.65u @ 3.3 @ Betfair)

AFL

ROUND 9
SUNDAY
Brisbane @ Nth Melbourne
1ST H - KANGAROOS -11.5 (x2) WIN

The Kangaroos were good for 3 1/2 quarters last week but failed badly in closing out the game. Port got on a roll and stole it from 32pts down in the last. North have now put in 2 bad games in a row and have felt it through out the media and internally. I expect a huge effort from this club at home against the Lions.
Brisbane don't play well here under the roof in Melbourne and North should be able to get things back on track. I like the Kanga's to be full of energy and make a statement to their fans, their coach and the general public early.
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

Carlton @ Melbourne
ATS - BLUES -49.5 (x1) WIN

Carlton couldn't have draw the Dees at a better time. In much need of a win and to put an end to a couple bad games in a row I like the Blues to do some damage today against the win less Demons. The Blues clearly play their best footy at the G and will get back on the winners list today. I just can't see the Demons keeping this under 10 goals.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

West Coast @ Fremantle
1ST H - EAGLES -8.5 (x2) LOSS

Freo were awful last week in Tassie and now return home to face the Eagles in the much hyped Derby! West Coast were cruising last week in beating the saints but eased up at the finish. I like the Eagles to flex their muscles and beat Freo today.

The Dockers have been terrible starters so far in 2012 while West Coast are the opposite. They get off to a flyer putting the game in their control early more often than not. Going by this trend I like the Eagles to again come out firing and cover the 9pts in the 1st half today.
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

NRL

ROUND 12
Nth Queensland @ West Tigers
ATS - COWBOYS +4 (x1.5) LOSS

North Queensland are in great form right now sitting firmly in the top 4. JT, Scott, Tamou and Tate are all backing up from origin and I think they are a real show against the inconsistent Tigers on the road today. The Cowboys have done well so far this season playing away from home and I like the size of their pack and those coming off the bench to really test the Tigers.

Wests will have Farrar backing up but with again more shifts in the playing positions with Ryan moved to the centres to allow Utai back on the wing. They also have yet another change in the halves with Ashford now playing 5/8 along side Benji. With all this I think the more regular combo's of the Cowboys will get the win. Take the points
(1.5u @ 2.0 @ Pinnacle)

OTHER GAMES

Sydney City @ Cantebury
ATS - BULLDOGS -3.5 (x1.5)
(1.6u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Philadelphia @ Boston
ATS - CELTICS -5.5 (x1.5) WIN

Game 7, played in the Garden, winner advances to the Eastern Conference Final where the Heat are waiting. Quite simply I cannot see Boston losing this one. KG has turned back the clock with his form in this years post season, he lives for these games. Pierce and Allen are yet to really make a big splash in this series, tonight could be the night and Rondo is still the key to it all. When he is on he is unstoppable. With the cast he has around him I expect tonight he brings his top game to the table. While the Sixers have been impressive, they will struggle to keep their emotions in check.

On the road will prove to big an ask. Experience and rest are the two key factors that are in the Celtics side tonight. Boston advance, they win by 14 here.
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

AFL

ROUND 9
Early one for round 9 as I see this price moving. Both Reid and Swan will miss for the Pies. Write up and more to follow....

Collingwood @ Adelaide
ATS - CROWS -11.5 (x2) LOSS

As stated above I jumped on this line nice and early as was sure it would move. It has but not as badly as I thought out to -13.5 now. I would still take this!

Adelaide are in red hot form! its as simple as that. Sanderson has given this group a licence to take the game on and they look stronger and fitter than ever! Dangerfield is one who has really relished under this new approach as he is the perfect prototype for Sanderson's run and carry style game plan.
The Crows have lost just one game so far under their new coach including the NAB cup! this is extraordinary. I did rate this side in my AFL preview and stated they had the potential to get the jump on the comp as West Coast did last year and boy have they ever!

Collingwood have steadied after a rocky start no doubt and have won their past 5 straight. They are coming off an impressive win against last years Premiers also. However Bucks cannot catch a trick with more injuries hurting his side. This time its the Brownlow Medalist Swan and All Australian defender Ben Reid! Two crucial players in this line up. Collingwoods back six looks very thin with Tarrant, Brown and now Reid missing. Now the midfield has taken another hit after losing Ball earlier in the year.

with this many injuries to cover, facing the inform team in the comp on the road is a mighty tough ask! Crows win and win well here in front of a packed house at AAMI. Footy is back in SA and the Crows are leading the revival! Crow by 34pts
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Hawthorn @ Richmond
1st H - HAWKS -11.5 (x1) LOSS

I've taken the Hawks here to start well against the Tigers at the MCG in what looks to be a close match up. Hawthorn like Collingwood have got their season back on track after a few hiccups early in the year and are coming off a big confidence boost thumping the Dockers in Tassie last week. Richmond while competative once again failed against the Bombers in a cracker.

Richmond have been close on a lot of occasions this season and one would think they will start to win these sorts of games but not today. Grimes out  is a big loss as Buddy will now be left up to Rance. This will allow Roughead to take the next rall defender which is???? Your guess here is as good as mine.
Unless the Tigers can beat the Hawks well in the Midfield their Back six will be exposed badly! Hawthorn are one of th better starting sides while the Tiger simply are not. They continue to allow their oppositon to take big leads and mount a comeback in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I see this trend continuing today. Hawks lead well at the main change and go on with it!
HAWKS by 42
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

Sydney @ St.Kilda
ML - SAINTS (x1) WIN

Lenny Hayes 250th. Saints will lift for this one. Etihad is their favourite ground by a country mile! The Saints play this ground as good as anyone. Real advantage for the Saints here. Sydney do not play well in Melbourne. However MCG is where they struggle the most. The Saints have shown signs of improvement and will up and about for this one. No Ruckman other than Kosi hurts but they are lucky as Mumford is out also. Saints win a tight one for Lenny tonight!
(1u @ 2.0 @ Sportsbet)

Essendon @ GWS
1st H - BOMBERS -34.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)


OTHER GAMES
*1ST H - EAGLES -8.5 (x2)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTI #7

Risking 0.6u to win 4u LOSS

NRL - RABBITOHS -11.5 W
AFL - CATS 1-39 W
AFL - CROWS -13.5 L

(0.6u @ 7.61 @ Sportingbet)

NRL

ROUND 12
Canberra @ South Sydney
ATS - RABBITOHS -11.5 (x1.5) WIN

The Bunnies are full of confidence right now winning their past 3 on the trot. They have regained Burgess and will have both Inglis and Taylor back up from Origin. The Raiders who would have gained a little belief from their narrow win against the Eels last week have now been dealt a blow with gun fullback Dugan and flyer Ferguson ruled out for disciplinary reasons.

Bunnies win this in a canter for mine 13+
(1.7u @ 1.87 @ Centrebet)
DBL - STORM ML / DRAGONS ML (x1.5) WIN

Taking a double here with the Storm at home to beat the Broncos on the road minus some of their stars. Melbourne have a terrific record at home and against the Broncos here in particular winning 12 of  15 and 11 of 14 in Melbourne. Brisbane just don't travel this far south to well.

The Broncos will be without Thiaday and Hodges but will get Gillett and Hannant back while the Storm has the luxury of all 3 stars playing in Slater, Cronk and Smith as they usually do. Brisbane also welcomes back Wallace from injury which is huge for them but I expect him to be a little rusty especially on the road and against one of the best in Cooper Cronk. Storm bounce back and get the win here.

The second leg is the Dragons at home against Paramatta. St.George has been a showdow of the once dominant side in the comp so far this year and have lost their past 3 with the most recent 2 by a single point in extra time! I just feel they stop the rott here at WIN Jubilee and will be to strong for the 16th placed Eels.
(1.4u @ 2.07 @ Sportsbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Boston @ Philadelphia
ATS - CELTICS +2 (x2) LOSS

Boston look to have stamped their authority on this series with an impressive performance in game 5. What will please Rivers the most is the output his team received from Bass. This took a lot of pressure off the big 3 and was a blessing as both Pierce and Bradley were not 100%.

I like the Celtics to close out this series here and get some valuable rest into their older guys. With just one game standing between them and another Eastern Conference final, They will get it done. The Sixers while have been good, they are just not quite ready. They have had trouble stopping the Celtics Bigs Garnett and Bass. While Rondo continues to do as he pleases.

Phili's home record overall is good but their recent form here is questionable at 8-15-2 ATS. Against Boston they are just 4-8 SU. The Cream rises to the top tonight. Boston take over this one and advance.
(2.15u @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle)

Miami @ Indiana
ATS - HEAT -2.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Pinnacle)

NRL

STATE OF ORIGIN
GAME 1
*NSW BLUES +6.5 (x1) LOSS

This has to be the best chance the Blues have had in a number of years and they will go into tonight's game with some confidence on the back of last years series. Sure they lost the series but did manage to win one game and kept QLD to just 16 and 8 points in the first two games of the series. That is a huge effort against the scoring power QLD posses.
A few areas I really like with the Blues this year is Carney for one! I already suspect the Maroons are a little nervous about this guy. He is in red hot form, on par if  not better than when he won the Daily M a couple years back. Carney adds that real X factor and going by what he has done for the Sharks this is a great selection by Rick.

Carney will be joined in the halves by Pearce. These two guys now each other very well having played 2 seasons together at the Roosters so I get the feeling Mitchell will now feel more at home in his role in the Blues jumper with his good mate along side him. The other factor I like is Farrar and Stewart. The #1 and #9 positions are crucial in today's game. Farrar offers a little more speed and flair which will keep Smith on his toes while Stewart gives that also but has he experience behind him. The backs of Stewart, Hayne and Uate looks very dangerous. And if T Rex can capture his form look out!
The Blues have opted for the more mobile pack and will be out to run the big QLD forwards off their feet. I expect them to target big Petro as while he has been a champion of the game I just feel this selection may come unstuck. QLD are a class side and deserve to be favourites, But I really like the Blues chances here to pinch game one in Melbourne. Take the points. (6.5 is huge compared to 5.5)
(1.13u @ 1.89 @ Centrebet)

Man of the Match Exotics
*CARNEY 0.2u @ $9
*FARRAR 0.05u @ $19
*TAMOU 0.05u @ $51

NBA PLAYOFFS

Indiana Pacers At Miami Heat
ATS - PACERS +7 (x1) LOSS

Miami responded in game 4 and tied the series just as I expected they would. However nothing is coming easily for this team right now minus Bosh. Le Bron and Wade both had huge nights and also put up huge minutes to get the job done. Add to this Haslem finally came to play. Is this what is required to win for the Heat?
Just as my angles were last game I didn't expect Wade to have 2 straight poor games, well I'm not sure both James can now replicate those numbers back 2 back here in game 5. Pacers are a good solid all round side. They will be ready. Hibberd was limited last game with foul trouble and that opened the door for Miami to attack the basket. If he can limit those fouls and spend more time in the middle the Pacers are a big show here. Either way I like the points on offer as I see this one being tight.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NBA

Philadelphia 76ers At Boston Celtics
ATS - CELTICS -5 (x1.5) WIN

Boston and the big 3 return home after letting one get away last game. The Celtics were over run by the Sixers and could do little to stop the rot. Well now they are back in their home stage and will come to play the full 48 mins here tonight. The few days rest is a blessing for this side. The C's get it done win this one well!
(1.7u @ 1.89 @ Pinnacle)

Los Angeles Lakers At Oklahoma City Thunder
ATS - LAKERS +8 (x1) LOSS

The Lakers have all but thrown away 2 crucial games in this series. After getting smashed in game one where it was obvious they were just not prepared, they have actually looked the better side in the past 3. However have just one win and trail 3-1. Now Kobe and his crew must saddle up yet again and face the Thunder on the road. I like what I have seen from LA in these last 3 games and feel they have worked out how best to limit OKC on offense.

 Kobe isn't done just yet. They push this one to the wire. Take the points.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

NRL

ROUND 11 MNF
Cronulla @ Canterbury
HT/FT - BULLDOGS (x1) WIN

The Bulldogs were awful last week and the Sharks brilliant in beating the Storm but yet I like the Dogs to bounce back and take this one!

The Dogs were spanked by the Titans last week and with some of their players snubbed for Origin one I expect a huge showing tonight. Ennis and Barba could feel hard done by having missed Origin selection and should be out to prove a point. I also expect Hasler would have told this group in no uncertain terms that last weeks performance was not acceptable. He'll have the Dogs ready.

Cronulla will be with out their two most important players tonight with Gal and Carney on Origin duties. These two will simply be to hard to replace. I have loved the work so far of the Sharks but with out their captain and star in the halves I struggle to see them coming up with enough points to beat what should be a fired up Bulldogs team.

I still expect a close encounter as Cronulla are a tough defensive side but like the Dogs to come out with a bang early will the sharks get use to life without Carney and Gal. Dogs to lead early and hold on and win a close one. Half time full time for me.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Centrebet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Miami Heat At Indiana Pacers Game 4

1st Q - HEAT (x1) LOSS
2ND H - HEAT -3 (x1) WIN
ATS - HEAT -1.5 (x3) WIN

I'm really big on Miami to respond and turn up here in game 4. Down 2-1 the Heat will not want to return home for do or die game 5 with the series on the line. Embarrassed in game 3 with Wade having his worse game in years. So far they have gotten absolutely nothing from Chalmers, Miller, Jones, Battier and just about everyone other than James for that matter! Sure Bosh is missing and he doe offer a solid 3rd option but it's time to adjust!
Revenge, bounce back whatever you want to call it, Heat get it done here! I also like Miami to once again come out of the blocks strong!
HEAT BY 12

(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Sportsbet)
(3.3u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)
(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

RD 8 CONT

Gold Coast @ Western Bulldogs
ATS - BULLDOGS -34.5 (x1) WIN
Bulldogs play at least one game up in Darwin each year and have won their past 4 games. They are clearly use to the conditions and the ground and have confidence playing in the Top End. On the back of last weeks form I like the Dogs to be to good for the undermanned Suns team tonight. Gold Coast will be without Bock, Harbrow, Brennan and Swallow for this one. To many key players missing for mine.
Bulldogs by 45
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

Melbourne @ Sydney
2nd H - SWANS -27.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

SUNDAY

GWS @ Brisbane
2nd H - GIANTS +27.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

Adelaide @ Carlton
2ND H - CROW +6.5 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.88 @ Sportsbet)
STKilda @ West Coast
DBL - CROWS +38.5 / EAGLES -1.5 (x2) WIN
MARGIN - EAGLES 1-39 (x2) WIN
(2.3u @ 1.87 @ Centrebet)
(1.6u @ 2.25 @ Sportingbet)

NRL

ROUND 11
Penrith @ Nth Queensland
ATS - COWBOYS -4.5 (x1) LOSS

Tough round this week with all the Origin stars missing. Nth Queensland you could argue are hit the hardest, missing they leaders JT and Scott. Add to this Tate and Tamou also. But this team is very deep this year and still have a very strong pack with Dallas Johnson, Cooper, Taumalolo and the Sims brothers. I expect all to step up.

JT is a hard one to replace but Thompson has been solid in his role and Bowen will rise to the challenge. They Panthers managed to get a much needed win at home last week but now on a short turnaround travel to Townsville. This will be a shock to the system coming from the bitter cold in Penrith. With Lewis missing and Burns in doubt I see a big let down here for the Panthers.

Cowboys by 14
(1.2u @ 1.85 @ Centrebet)


Sydney @ Manly
ATS - SEA EAGLES -5.5 (x1.5) WIN
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTY #6

Risking x1u to win x5u LOSS

AFL
1. KANGAROOS -13.5
2. HAWKS 1-39
3. W.BULLDOGS -24.5

(1u @ 6.3 @ Centrebet)

AFL

ROUND 8 - Saturday

Nth Melbourne @ Port Adelaide
ATS - KANGAROOS -15.5 (x2) LOSS

I'm really big on the Kangas today, after last weeks performance against the much hungrier Dogs, North have copped a pounding, Both through the media and internally. Scott hasn't tries to sugar coat his feelings towards his groups last display and I guarantee the would have felt it this week on the track!

The Kangas have a great record against Port winning 6 of past 8 and last 3 straight by and average margin of 47pts. They just seem to have their measure and put them away convincingly. Port are in a bad spot here, returning from the dreaded Perth trip and on a short turnaround having played the late game Sunday and now cop the early game Saturday.

Alot of my key factors point to a good Kangas win today. Bounce back, recent head 2 head, schedule factor, better overall side. Kangas win well today!
North by 38pts
(2.2u @ 1.93 @ Sportingbet)

Fremantle @ Hawthorn
DBL - KANGAROOS -11.5 / HAWKS 1-39 (x4) LOSS

I have also doubled this up in a separate bet that was too good to refuse @ $4. I like the Hawks today also to get the win in Tassie against the Dockers. Hawthorn has won 5 of its past 6 against the Dockers and 7 of past 8 here at Aurora. They play this ground extremely well. I was surprised to read that Freo has played in Tassie 7 times. But not surprised they have come away with just one win from these games by a single point.
Hawks win but I think under Ross Lyons new style they keep the Hawks honest. Hawks under 40 for value here.
(1.3u @ 4.01 @ Centrebet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Boston @ Philadelphia
1st Q - 76ERS -0.5 (x1) LOSS
2ND H - 76ERS -4.5 (x1) WIN

This is a must win for the Sixers here, pretty simple. They are down 2-1 in the Series and if they are 3-1 down after today heading to Boston it's goodnight season 2012! Phili were outclassed last game as I thought by a more hardened and experienced team who were simply more desperate when it mattered. Tonight's its the Sixers who have their backs to the wall and simply have to produce.

Can they win? Sure, but I think tonight's game is line ball. But what I do know is Phili will come out strong and with the crowd behind them will want to start well. They are ranked well in 1st Q starts at home and the Celtics not so well on the road. During the Sixers great run early in the season they were typically great starters and have lead 2 out of the 3 games in this series. I like the Sixers to have the edge after the 1st tonight.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)
(1u @ 2.0 @ Pinnacle)


ADDED
OKC @ LA Lakers
1st Q - LAKERS -0.5 (x1) WIN
(1.15u @ 1.86 @ Sportingbet)

San Antonio @ LA Clippers
ATS - SPURS -5 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

AFL

ROUND 7 - FRIDAY NIGHT

Geelong @ Collingwood
ATS - CATS +6.5 (x1) LOSS

The Grand final rematch! But both sides are clearly not playing as well as they'd like. Geelong was handed its biggest defeat in about 2 years at the hands of the Crows. While the Pies have quietly strung together 4 win on the trot it must be noted 3 of these were against Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Port. Still winning form is good form.

I have this game as a pick with some nice angles leaning towards the Cats. Geelong has won 10 straight at the G and it last 3 over the Magpies Including last years GF! So they will have confidence knowing they can beat them. The Pies will have that revenge factor but Geelong is coming off a big loss and have been questioned by everyone. Not the time you want to face Geelong.

Both have great inclusions with Thomas, Jolly, Dawes and Fasolo for Collingwood and Bartel, Scarlett, Stokes and Big O for the Cats. This pretty much evens itself out I would have thought. However Bartel back for the Cats is massive! He tore up the Pies in the GF and always lifts for these types of matches. Its also James Kellys 200th, Geelong win these big milesone matches.

For me the fact Geelong has such an outstanding record at the G and coming off a blow out gives them the edge. Cats win a close one. Take the points.
Cats by 10
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

OTHER MATCHES
*KANGAROOS -15.5 (x2)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Miami @ Indiana
ML - HEAT (x2) LOSS

Huge bounce back game on the cards for the Heat tonight! For the first two games the Pacers were the value and I bet on them in both but here I see Miami as the side to take.

Miami will again be without Bosh but will now have had time to reassess and adjust accordingly. Much like the Celtics yesterday I just can't see them putting in 2 bad performances in a row. Wade missed a lay up late in the game, Le Bron missed 2 clutch free throws and their outside shooters Miller, Jones and Chalmers were no existent with the team going 4.5% in the first 2 games!

Another interesting angle I always like to  take into consideration is teams and players reactions. Once again the Pacers celebrated on Miami's home court like they had just won the championship! Just as they did against Rose and the Bulls in the regular season. Rose took note that day and had his way with them next meeting. Wade took notice and will be looking to do  much the  same here.
Heat bounce back strong today and win this one outright!
(2.3u @ 1.87 @ Sportingbet)


ADDED
LA Clippers @ San Antonio
2ND H - SPURS -5.5 (x1) WIN
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Boston @ Philadelphia
ATS - CELTICS +2 (x1) WIN

With both games in this series split 1-1 and both by just a single point, this series shapes up to go all the way. For me though Boston are still the better side and while the Sixers have done well thus far I don't see them sustaining the intensity needed to get through this round.

Boston have been terrific in covering on the road recently going 9-3-1 i their past 13 games and usually respond well coming off a loss. Pierces game last week was well down and these kind of players rarely put in two bad ones in a row. I expect Rondo to step it up and control the tempo tonight and get all the right looks for his teammates.
Phili hasn't been as dominant of late here at home,  just 2-6 ATS. With the Bulls injury issues that series win wasn't as impressive as it seems and Boston were clearly off in game 2 especially the 2nd and 3rd quarters and almost pinched it. Phili are a little out of their depth here and I like the experience of the Celtics pro vale here.

(1.05u @ 1.96 @ Pinnacle)

NBA Playoffs

Indiana @ Miami / LA Clippers @ San Antonio
DBL - PACERS +11.5 / SPURS -5.5 (x2) WIN

Indiana were right in Game 1, leading most of the way but failed at the death. James and Wade to over. Granger and George shot the ball terribly. I expect these guys to turn that around and with Bosh out I like the Pacers to be right in it to the death once again.

The Spurs have been waiting and resting. The Clippers won a hard fought series in Memphis in 7, Paul and Griffin are banged up. This could get ugly. Spurs win big!
(2.2u @ 1.93 @ Centrebet)

As I haven't been able to post plays on here the past week I have now just updated my totals. It has been the worst run I have had in a long time and have dropped over 15u in total! A few unlucky 1/2 point losses but also some bad choices.

Hopefully now with posting back on here I can get back to winning and smart betting.

NBA PLAYOFFS

Boston @ Atlanta
ATS - CELTICS +2 (x2) WIN
(2.3u @ 1.89 @ Pinnacle)

Denver @ LA Lakers
ATS - LAKERS -5.5 (x1) LOSS
2ND H - LAKERS -6 (x1.5) LOSS
(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)
(1.4u @ 2.04 @ Pinnacle)

TEASER
Orlando @ Indiana / Denver @ LA Lakers
DBL - MAGIC +16 / LAKERS PK (x1.5) LOSS
(1.7u @ 1.89 @ Pinnacle)

NBA PLAYOFFS

TEASER

San Antonio @ Utah / Memphis @ LA Clippers
DBL - SPURS -2.5 / GRIZZLES +7.5 (x2) WIN
(2.3u @ 1.87 @ Centerbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Miami @ NY
ATS - KNICKS +8 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

Atlanta @ Boston
ATS - CELTICS -5 (x2) WIN
(2.2u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTI #4

Outlaying 1.1u to win 11u
1. AFL - Nth @ WCE - EAGLES 1-39  W
2. AFL - Richmond @ Port Adelaide - TIGERS 1-39 W
3. NRL - Cronulla @ Souths - SHARKS PK L

(1.1u @ 10.55 @ Sportsbet)

LAYING OFF

because my first 2 legs of this multi have won I am lating off on the third leg to ensure I collect either way. I am still favouring the Sharks so if they come in I have a higher collect. So
(outlaying 4.5u to collect 3u or if Sharks win collect 6u)
LAY BET - RABBITOHS PK  WIN
(4.5u @ 1.88 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

RD 6 SUNDAY

GWS @ Carlton
ATS - GIANTS +86.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Richmond @ Port Adelaide
MARGIN - TIGERS 1-39 (x2) WIN
(1.3u @ 2.55 @ Centrebet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

Indiana @ Orlando
ATS - PACERS -5 (x2) LOSS
(2.1u @ 1.96 @ Pinnacle)

San Antonio @ Utah
ATS - SPURS -5.5 (x2) WIN
(2.1u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

OKC @ Dallas
2nd H - THUNDER -2 (x1.5) WIN
(1.55u @ 1.98 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

RD 5 - SATURDAY

St Kilda v Hawthorn
1ST H - HAWKS -12.5 (x2)  LOSS

The Hawks were dread full in the second half last week against the Swans and have been smashed in the media all week! some even labeling their performance as "they Dogged it"! these are very harsh words. Yes they were bad but the Swans are a top side, especially at home. The Hawks returned from a tough battle in Perth and have faced Collingwood, Geelong and the Crows also to start the year. Tough draw!

I will excuse this lapse as simply fatigue and a bit of a letdown coming off such a big month and returning from the Eagles battle in Perth. Expect a different side tonight! The Hawks have been outstanding starters to games anyway this year it has just been their second half efforts that have been questioned. With the inclusions of Birchall and Smith, plus Hodge will be better for the run last week This team looks pretty strong all round. Hawks to start with a bang tonight.
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportsbet)

Adelaide v Sydney
MARGIN - SWANS 1-39 (x1) LOSS
Sydney have been on fire! 5-0 to start the year and none of those victories was more impressive than last weeks come from behind smashing of the "Flag Favourites" Hawthorn. Sydney have some what flown under the radar to start the year and perhaps caught some teams a little off guard. They are a very evenly spread group. The likes of Parker and Jetta have really come on and Kennedy is now an elite onballer!
The Crows have been ok since their outstanding NAB cup win and showed a few good signs in last weeks showdown. Dangerfield was outstanding and he should expect some close attention today. I think the Crows shouldn't be taken lightly today and will take it right too the swans. I expect a low scoring battle but Sydney at home to get the points. They win under 40>
Swans by 15.
(0.80u @ 2.2 @ Pinnacle)

ADDED
Melbourne @ Geelong
2ND H - CATS -28.5 (x2) LOSS
(2.2u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

PLAYER EXOTIC - MOST DISPOSALS GROUP 2
*A.CHRISTENSEN (x1) LOSS
over
J.Kelly, C.Enright, S.Johnson, C.Sylvia, Morton, Grimes and McKenzie
(0.2u @ 6.0 @ Sportsbet)

NRL

RD 9 - SATURDAY

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos
ATS - BRONCOS -2 (x2) LOSS

Brisbane are flying at the moment sitting 2nd on the ladder just behind the Storm @ 7-1! This team hasn't missed a beat since the great Lockyer retired. Whats most impressive is the defence. The Broncos have conceded just over 12pts per game to start the season and that is just marginally behind the Storm who are undefeated.
The warriors on the other hand concede double @ 24.5 per game. They are missing too many tackles and are currently the worst ranked side in that particular area. Brisbane will have a day out! Especially with the quality of the pack Thiday, Hannant, Petro and Parker setting the foundation for Norman, Hodges and Hoffman to work with.
Brisbane will prove far too strong and have too much depth for the inconsistent Warriors. Having Gillett, Te'o, McGuire and Hunt coming off the bench is a luxury.
Broncos by 12
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

NBA: 136-132-10 (+16.60u @ 50.7%)

Chicago @ Philidelphia
1ST H - BULLS +0.5 (x1.5) LOSS
ATS - BULLS +1.5 (x1) LOSS

Yes the Sixers were very good in the second half of last game and yes the series is now tied 1-1 with this game and the next played here in Phili and yes Rose isn't coming back this year. But I think we are forgetting just how good this Chicago side has been this year.
The Bulls are the best team in the NBA and bounce back well and fast! Chicago's record is 13-0 after an upset loss this year! and to put that in more perspective they only lost 2 games in a row once all season! These Bulls are a strong and proud group with or without Rose and they now how to put a loss behind them and respond!
Chicago are one of the best defensive teams this year. The Sixers simply had a very good night last game, they shot just under 60% from the field! this won't happen again tonight. I like the Bulls to come out strong as they have done all year and lead at the main change and also take the game outright.
(1.55u @ 1.98 @ Pinnacle)
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Betfair)


LA Lakers @ Denver
1ST Q - LAKERS PK (x1) LOSS
ADDED
ATS - LAKERS +12 (x2) LOSS

The Lakers have shown in both games one and two it means business this year. They have dominated the Nuggets in every facet of the game thus far in the series. The score in game two flatters the Nuggets. Denver has been resorting to double teaming either Bynum down low or Kobe at various times and neither is working as this just frees up the other, Plus you have Gasol who is finding this game fun right now being the 3rd option.
While I expect Denver to ant to pick up the pace here at home I think the Lakers will get the upper hand in that wrestle and keep it at a half court game. In saying that if LA can control the pace this game and the series is all over! LA will be aware of the poor record on the road and will come out strong tonight. Lakers to lead at the 1st change.
(0.75u @ 2.37 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

AFL : 22-21-0 (-1.96u @ 51.2%)

ROUND 6 - FRIDAY NIGHT

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
1ST Q - MAGPIES -10.5 (x2) LOSS
2nd H - MAGPIES -20.5 (x1.5) LOSS

Collingwood still have plenty of work to do to get back to the force they once were but they are on the up with a gutsy win over the surging Bombers on Anzac day. This win I believe is just what this group needed.
The Magpies receive a boost with key defenders Reid and Shaw both back for this one. Both these guys positions in the back six cannot be underestimated. As Reid will now allow Maxwell to take 3rd tall and Shaw takes the pressure off Harry O as his run and carry is second to none.
The Dogs while have won their past 2, these were against Melbourne and GWS. They still have plenty of work to do. They are really lacking in the key areas. Their spine consists of Lake, Austin, Minson, Jones and Roughhead is very inexperienced. I cannot see them handling Collingwoods Spine on Reid, Maxwell, Jolly, Dawes and Cloke.

Collingwood has won its past 4 against the Bulldogs and lead at halftime in 7 of the past 8 between theses two sides. The Pies have started games exceptionally well leading in 4 of the 5 games so far this season at the 1st change. The Dogs are on the opposite end of the scale leading just once after the 1st quarter in their opening 5 games. The Bulldogs have also struggled here winning just 1 of past 6 at Etihad. With having the extra rest I like the Magpies to start with a bang!
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportsbet)

OTHER GAMES
St Kilda v Hawthorn
1ST H - HAWKS -12.5 (x2)
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportsbet)

Adelaide v Sydney
MARGIN - SWANS 1-39 (x1)
(0.80u @ 2.2 @ Pinnacle)

NRL

NRL : 22-13-1 (+9.74u @ 62.9%)

ROUND 9 - FRIDAY

Parramatta Eels vs Canterbury Bulldogs
ATS - BULLDOGS -4.5 (x1) WIN

Sitting right in the middle of the pack @ 4-4 the Bulldogs will see this as a must win game against the 1-7 bottom of the table Parramatta side tonight. I must say I am a little surprised at the line as I had the Dogs @ -8.5 or there abouts so to get under a converted try is value.

The Eels finished amazingly strong last week to score 30 points in the last 15 mins. It was extraordinary to say the least. Much of this I think is due to the Tigers switching completely off. Wests can be loose defensively at times so I am not reading to much into that. Canterbury are much stronger defensively and will not give the Eels any easy looks.
Not sure about Sandow named on the bench here, reckon he must start. Either way I like the Bulldogs to cover and look to cement their spot well in the 8.
Bulldogs by 10
(1.2u @ 1.85 @ Centrebet)



OTHER GAMES
New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos
ATS - BRONCOS -2 (x2)
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

NBA: 135-130-10 (+16.85u @ 51%)

Miami @ New York
ATS - HEAT -4.5 (x2) WIN

Miami 2-0 up in the series now look to close out the series in New York. Miami has dominated the Knicks in both games so far this series and are clear favourites now to win the title. New York has been dealt a rough hand with injuries to key players Shumpet and now Stoudamire. This adds to Lin who is trying to return but isn't quite ready.

News in is Bosh had to return home at the early hours yesterday morning for the birth of his child. He is game time decision and you would have to think if he does play will be just a little lethargic. Even so I still like the Heat here to win and cover. New York I think will turn up today and show a lot more desperation at home,  but ultimately it will be James and Wade who take over the show.
Heat by 10
(2.25u @ 1.89 @ Pinnacle)

OKC @ Dallas
ATS - MAVERICKS -3 (x1) LOSS
2ND H - MAVS -3.5 (x1) LOSS
OKC are 2-0 up in this series and now must travel to Dallas for the next two games. Dallas can count themselves very unlucky not  to have won one or even both of these two games as they played extremely well and for most parts looked the better side. A game winner by Durant in game 1 and then some missed opportunities late in game 2.

Tonight the will be desperate. They will not want to go 3-0 down especially not here at home. OKC hasn't been that convincing on the road and I think the Mavs get this one. Dirk looks set for a big game.
Mavs by 7
(1.15u @ 1.87 @ Pinnacle)

CHEEKY MULTI

CHEEKY MULTI #3

Outlaying 0.5u to win 5u

1. NRL - Brisbane @ New Zealand - BRONCOS -2
2. AFL - Adelaide @ Sydney - SWANS 1-39
3. AFL - Richmond @ Port Adelaide - TIGERS 1-39

(0.5u @ 10.22 @ Centrebet)

NBA PLAYOFFS

NBA: 134-130-10 (+14.79u @ 50.8%)

Indiana Pacers At Orlando Magic
ATS - PACERS -3 (x2) WIN

After a letdown and a loss in game one, then a slow start in game 2, Indiana finally clicked in the second half and dominated, taking game 2 and leveling the series 1-1. The Pacers now travel to Orlando to play the next 2 very important games.

Indiana controlled much of both these two games and were well on top in most areas. Points in the Paint, Free throws and boards the most obvious. Indiana had +20 more FT's, +32 PIP and +13 rebounds. This to me clearly shows which team is working harder and wants it more. Orlando are just not blue colar. They rely to much on the 3 especially with Dwight missing.

Pacers are 4-1 ats on their last 5 road games and are clearly the better team here and with their size and depth will again prove to good for Orlando. Indiana won't wont to drop this one. Pacers by 9.
(2.2u @ 1.93 @ Pinnacle)

NBA PLAYOFFS

PLAYOFFS GAME 2

Philadelphia @ Chicago / Denver @ LA Lakers
1st H - BULLS -3.5 (x1) WIN
DBL - BULLS PK / LAKERS PK (x1.5) LOSS
1ST H - LAKERS -2.5 (x1) WIN

Chicago will now play out the post season without their star and MVP Derrick Rose. Huge blow to their Championship hopes. However this team has done this for a good part of the season and have the ability to do it again here tonight.
I expect each and every player in the Bulls rotation to step it up as they have done before and come out strong tonight against the Sixers. Gibson is more than capable of directing this team and with the form RIP showed last start have plenty on offence with him adding to Deng, Boozer and Noah.

Chicago's defense is second to none and will once again smother Phili and dominate the boards on both ends. I can't see anything changing offensively for the Sixer's tonight from last game. With Rose out I suspect Phili may be a little complacent and Chicago to have an extra spur to perform. Bulls come out strong here early to lead well at the half and take the game SU.

I have added a double with my 2nd play adding the Lakers to win game 2 SU against the Nuggets at home. LA would have raised a few eyebrows with their all round dominate performance in game one, especially with all the injuries to key players from other challengers. This team could once again be right there come the conference finals should they click.

LA's height advantage was obvious last game and I thought Sessions and Kobe did an outstanding job defensively on Lawson to shut him completely out of the game. I expect much the same tonight and the Lakers will take this series to Denver 2-0 up.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)
(1.65u @ 1.92 @ Pinnacle)
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Pinnacle)

NBA

NBA: 131-128-10 (+14.40u @ 50.6%)

Orlando @ Indiana
1st Q - PACERS -2.5 (x1) WIN

Indiana choked up in game one losing to Orlando on their home floor. The Pacers gave up a 5 point lead late in the 4th and failed to score a single point in the last 4mins of the game. Defensively they were good, but offensively they were just not there. Granger, Collison and George the biggest culprits.

Orlando played above themselves in that match and they definitely lifted without Dwight. The 3 ball was dropping and even Big Baby was a presence on offence. Can they back it up? No. Orlando are now playing their 3rd on the road and 6th of their past 7 on the road tonight. Where Indiana have been at home the past 2 weeks straight.

I like Indiana to come out aggressive here tonight and put the disappointment of game one as far behind them  as possible. On revenge, the Pacers make a statement in the opener tonight.
(1.05u @ 1.96 @ Sportsbet)


Dallas @ OKC
ATS - THUNDER -6.5 (x1) LOSS

Dallas were unlucky to lose game 1 with KD hitting the game winner at the death. Although Dallas has been playing good basketball they haven't got alot of wins for their efforts recently, just 2-5 of their last 7.

Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka all young players will have to much energy for the older Mavs in this one. Dallas playing their 4th on the road tonight will run out of legs and I see OKC winning this one well.
(1u @ 2.02 @ Betfair)