Welcome all..... I live in Australia and have been punting on Sports for the past 6 years. Looking forward to another sucessful year in 2013...... I enjoyed another sucessful Campaign in 2012 which was my 2nd year posting here. Detailed results can be seen below.

I bet on the AFL , NRL as well as US Basketball, the NBA & NCAA CBB. Here I will post my plays as a record with regular write ups. It is most important that you create a Twitter account and follow me @baywatchbets as all my plays are posted there first then followed up with a detailed post here. Be sure to follow twitter below!!!

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I play on ML, ATS, Quarters, Halves, Doubles and occasionally on Player Exotics. My goal is to hit close to 60%. However 53% will give a nice profit.

I bet in units. Though out the seasons I will play x1 unit, x1.5 units, x2 units and on occasions huge x3, x4 & even x5 unit plays! On average x1 unit should be 3.5% of your bankroll so adjust accordingly. This is very important as we are investing not gambling!

So for example your x1 unit may be to win $100, so I bet $110 @ odds of 1.91. Betting at these odds your unit outlay would be:

x1 unit play - $110 to win $100

x1.5 unit play - $165 to win $150

x2 unit play - $220 to win $200 etc.

I adjust the amount I bet according to the odds taken. for example playing x1 unit @ odds of 1.85 I then have to up my bet to $115 to win $100 and so on.

Patience and Bankroll management is the key.

Good luck all and enjoy the ride....

Monday, April 9

AFL

MONDAY

Geelong @ Hawthorn
ATS - CATS +12.5 (x1.5) WIN
MARGIN - CATS 1-39 (x1) WIN

Hawthorn will be looking to snap a 0-9 losing run to Geelong here in this big Easter Monday match! The Cats have not lost to the Hawks since the 2008 Grand final! Remarkable. It must be noted that almost all margins in these games were single figures and I expect another close battle again!

Geelong will be without Scarlett who is suspended and are still missing Josh Hunt and Wojo from their back half. But with the likes of Taylor, Lonergan, Enright, Mackie down back they have plenty of experience and leaders to guide the way. Geelongs biggest concern this season will be in the ruck. An area the Cats have gone from very strong to extremely limited. Ottens and Blake retired and now young ruck man Vardy and Simpson are both on the long term injury list. This leave West to carry the load and 29yr old rookie Orren. It is unfair to judge this pair last week against the best in the business Sandilands and will find it much easier today as the Hawks have issues in this department also.

An area of concern for Hawthorn will be Geelongs forward half. Similar to Collingwoods, Geelong has 2 big key forwards that will require watching. But also has some of the best small and mid range forwards in the game. Johnson is a must stop and Chapman is on the verge of one of those 30+ possessions and 4 goal games. The Hawks back six looked ok against the Magpies but still leaked a lot of points. They will find it tough again today.
Overall I have the Hawks favourites but only just. Hodge still out balances out Scarlett missing and while returning from Perth is not ideal for the Cats they are actually 9-0 SU in this spot! I expect another tight fought contest and with fired up Cats side coming off a loss and being labeled "arrogant" the Hawks would want to be on their game! Cats can win this and happy with the 12.5 start. Cats by 2.
(1.5u @ 1.99 @ Pinnacle)
(0.5u @ 3.25 @ Centrebet)
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