Welcome all..... I live in Australia and have been punting on Sports for the past 6 years. Looking forward to another sucessful year in 2013...... I enjoyed another sucessful Campaign in 2012 which was my 2nd year posting here. Detailed results can be seen below.

I bet on the AFL , NRL as well as US Basketball, the NBA & NCAA CBB. Here I will post my plays as a record with regular write ups. It is most important that you create a Twitter account and follow me @baywatchbets as all my plays are posted there first then followed up with a detailed post here. Be sure to follow twitter below!!!

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I play on ML, ATS, Quarters, Halves, Doubles and occasionally on Player Exotics. My goal is to hit close to 60%. However 53% will give a nice profit.

I bet in units. Though out the seasons I will play x1 unit, x1.5 units, x2 units and on occasions huge x3, x4 & even x5 unit plays! On average x1 unit should be 3.5% of your bankroll so adjust accordingly. This is very important as we are investing not gambling!

So for example your x1 unit may be to win $100, so I bet $110 @ odds of 1.91. Betting at these odds your unit outlay would be:

x1 unit play - $110 to win $100

x1.5 unit play - $165 to win $150

x2 unit play - $220 to win $200 etc.

I adjust the amount I bet according to the odds taken. for example playing x1 unit @ odds of 1.85 I then have to up my bet to $115 to win $100 and so on.

Patience and Bankroll management is the key.

Good luck all and enjoy the ride....

Monday, September 26

AFL OFFICIAL PLAY x2

AFL GRAND FINAL
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD

ML - CATS (x3) WINNER
DREAMTEAM H2H - J.BARTEL over L.BALL (x1) LOSS


Cats to take the flag and make it 3 outta 5!

Rolling with the inform Cats in today's big dance. Really like the way Chris Scott has managed this team all year with rotating players and it appears he has his side primed for this clash! Baring Stevie J, all players are cherry ripe and in good nick. Impressive wins over West Coast and Hawthorn in the final series and the demolition of the Magpies in round 24 has seen the Cats price go from $2 outsider (which is when I posted this play) to under $1.80 favorites at some bookies!

Geelong's major concern all week has been the fitness of Stevie J and he appears all but certain to play! This is huge for the Cats as whether he is fit or not, will still demand close attention from the Collingwood defense! If he wasn't to play I suspect you could see the likes of Harry O used in a more offensive nature. Johnson's inclusion will limit Harry's impact.

The Magpies appear to also be in the clear of their injury concerns. Jolly and Reid both look likely to play! But are they 100%? I would suggest not. This is a much greater gamble than the Cats are taking with Stevie J as the Ruck and Key Defender positions are much more difficult to cover should either go down or give below par performance's. Ottens looms as the real concern for the Magpies should either of these two not come to play as he is in outstanding touch and a proven big game performer in the ruck then drifting deep forward.

The Collingwood key forwards, Cloke in particular have been dominant all year but the Cats defense of Talor, Lonergan, Enright, Hunt, Mackie, Wojo and lead by Scarlett will prove very difficult to crack! The on ball bregade looks solid for both and should be a classic battle. I also like the Bartel/Ball H2H DT match up. Jimmy is a big DT points accumulator, he loves it in these conditions and has proven he lifts for the big games. Ball I think will receive some close checking and Bartel could avoid the solid tag with Selwood and Stevie J likely to attract more attention. So it's the Cats in a beauty!

CATS by 19pts

Norm Smith tip: BARTEL WINNER
Roughies with value: ENRIGHT & PODSIADLY

(3.0u @ 2.0 @ Sportingbet)
(1.2u @ 1.85 @ Centrebet)
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