Welcome all..... I live in Australia and have been punting on Sports for the past 6 years. Looking forward to another sucessful year in 2013...... I enjoyed another sucessful Campaign in 2012 which was my 2nd year posting here. Detailed results can be seen below.

I bet on the AFL , NRL as well as US Basketball, the NBA & NCAA CBB. Here I will post my plays as a record with regular write ups. It is most important that you create a Twitter account and follow me @baywatchbets as all my plays are posted there first then followed up with a detailed post here. Be sure to follow twitter below!!!

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I play on ML, ATS, Quarters, Halves, Doubles and occasionally on Player Exotics. My goal is to hit close to 60%. However 53% will give a nice profit.

I bet in units. Though out the seasons I will play x1 unit, x1.5 units, x2 units and on occasions huge x3, x4 & even x5 unit plays! On average x1 unit should be 3.5% of your bankroll so adjust accordingly. This is very important as we are investing not gambling!

So for example your x1 unit may be to win $100, so I bet $110 @ odds of 1.91. Betting at these odds your unit outlay would be:

x1 unit play - $110 to win $100

x1.5 unit play - $165 to win $150

x2 unit play - $220 to win $200 etc.

I adjust the amount I bet according to the odds taken. for example playing x1 unit @ odds of 1.85 I then have to up my bet to $115 to win $100 and so on.

Patience and Bankroll management is the key.

Good luck all and enjoy the ride....

Wednesday, February 29

NRL

NRL SEASON PREVIEW


Season 2012 is just days away and I can not wait! last season after a bad start ended up being a successful one, finishing 65-54-3 @ 54.6% for +8.69u! I will look to improve on this. Here is a quick guide to how I rate the teams before kickoff and my top 8.

Premiership Contenders:

STORM
With Slater, Smith and Cronk leading the way, Melbourne will once again be a force in 2012. Coach Bellamy is the master at getting the best out of people. While the loss of Blair will hurt, they have signed Hoffman and Ryles who will fill that hole beautifully. Chambers returning is a bonus also!
WARRIORS
I see the Warriors as a huge threat this season. Off the back of last seasons run to the Grand Final I expect this young team to only get better. I love the emergence of Locke and Johnson in the 1 & 7 jumpers and Friend is a huge addition. Mt Smart will be a fortress and NZ will be Top 4!
TIGERS
Disappointing how they finished 2011, I expect the Tigers to be right there again. Benji is right with the best of them and with a fit Lote and the signing of Blair they have no excuses. Top 4 material.
COWBOYS
I think the books have got this team way off! they have them @ $16 for the flag and even money to make the top 8! I wouldn't be surprised to see Nth Queensland win the comp! I give them a huge chance to finish top 4! A fit JT pairing with new signing Lui is gold! This team has one of the best packs in the game and great depth! huge year for the Cowboys IMO!
BRONCOS
This is a hard one. I see the Broncos either dominating or falling right off the cliff! Their youth is the best in the game! and still have a great pack and great leaders in Sam, Petro and Parker! but how will the cope without Lockyer? I still rate them highly. Top 8 and always a danger.
BULLDOGS
Can this group pull together under new coach Des? Yep! Big improver's 2012. Graham is a great get and only adds to the already tough pack of Ennis, Tolman and Frank! Barba looms as the spark and I expect a breakout year! He is my tip to score the most trys in 2012! young halves is my only concern but have them in my top 8!
KNIGHTS
Bennett has arrived and has brought some friends! on paper they have a great spine. 1,6,7,9 in Boyd, Gidley, Mullen & Buderus! I expect a big jump for the Knights this year but perhaps 2013 is their time.
SEA EAGLES
The Premiers of 2011 are facing a drop IMO. The loss of Hasler is massive. While I love the halves in Foran & DCE, I see a bit of a slide but still top 8.... Just.
DRAGONS
Much like Manly only the loss of Bennett will take a while to get over. Boyd hurts also. Dragons will be there abouts but don't see them really threatening
RABBITOHS
Souths are forever taking 1 step forward 2 steps back! can they make the finals in 2012? Not quite for mine. While they are strong in the centres with King a true professional and still have a devastating pack, its the halves that is the concern. I hope they scrap in but wouldn't bet on it.

ALL THE OTHERS

TITANS
Have added some great signings and will improve. After finishing last they had to right! I do have optimism for the Titans. But I think will fall short of the 8.
SHARKS
Carney will be a hit and no one can argue with Gallen's efforts and presence on and off the field. This team will have some success in 2012 and are building something!
EELS
Sandow brings excitement and should bring Hayne into the game more which will excite the fans. But not this year for Parramatta
PANTHERS, ROOSTERS, RAIDERS
Spoon anyone? Tough year coming for these teams

So my Top 8 is.....

STORM
WARRIORS
COWBOYS
TIGERS
BRONCOS
BULLDOGS
SEA EAGLES
KNIGHTS

DRAGONS, RABBITOHS, TITANS all just miss

NBA

NBA: 75-75-9 (+5.41u @ 50%)

Minnesota Timberwolves At Los Angeles Clippers
1st Q - CLIPPERS -2 (x1) WIN

It's always tough to pick 1st game back after the All Star break, as some teams respond better to having a few days rest where others didn't get much rest at all if well represented over the week end. I like the Clippers here at home today who will be seeking revenge over Minnesota!

As we all know this play has always been a favorite as the Clippers tend to explode in the opener especially at home! And if you saw the way Blake Griffen and CP3 performed in the All Star Game I don't think they will be at all rusty! They were on fire! Keeping it simple today with the one play! Clippers to cover the bucket here in the 1st!
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Centrebet)

Tuesday, February 28

NCAA CBB

NCAAB: 83-69-2 (+4.22u @ 54.6%)

WEEK 16

Eveansville @ Creighton
2nd H - CREIGHTON -6.5 (x1) LOSS
(Down 1 @ half. GL Creighton -5.5)
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Pinnacle)

Kentucky @ Mississippi St
2ND H - KENTUCKY -8.5 (x1) WIN
(Down 13 @ half. GL Kentucky +4.5)
(1.1u @ 1.9 @ Pinnacle)

Temple v La Salle
ATS - LA SALLE +2.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)
Louisville @ Cincinnati
ATS - CINCINNATI -1.5 (x1) WIN
(1.15u @ 1.88 @ Pinnacle)

Drake @ Wichita St
ATS - DRAKE +16 (x1) LOSS
(1.0u @ 1.99 @ Pinnacle)

Samford v Tenn Chattanooga
ATS - SAMFORD +2.5 (x1) LOSS
(1.05u @ 1.96 @ Pinnacle)

Northwestern v Penn State
ML - NORTHWESTERN (x2) WIN
(2.3u @ 1.87 @ Pinnacle)

Florida State v Miami Florida
ML - MIAMI FL (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

Notre Dame v Georgetown
1st H - GEORGETOWN -3.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Pinnacle)

Sunday, February 26

AFL NAB CUP

NAB CUP ROUND 1

COLLINGWOOD @ GWS
ATS - GWS +29.5 (x0.5) WIN
(0.55u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)

Essendon @ WCE
ATS - BOMBERS +8.5 (x0.5) LOSS
(0.55u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

Fremantle vs Essendon
1ST H - DOCKERS -4.5 (x0.5) WIN
(0.55u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

2ND H - DOCKERS -2.5 (x0.5)
(Up 13 @ half. GL Dockers -15.5) WIN
(0.55u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)

Fremantle vs West Coast
ATS - DOCKERS +3.5 (x0.5) LOSS
(0.55u @ 1.90 @ Centrebet)

Geelong v St.Kilda
ATS - CATS -1.5 (x0.5) LOSS
(0.55u @ 1.90 @ Centrebet)

Melbourne v Brisbane
ML - LIONS (x1) LOSS
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Sportingbet)

Brisbane v Gold Coast
ATS - SUNS +3.5 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Centrebet)

Carlton @ Adelaide
ML - CROWS (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)