AFL

MONDAY

Geelong @ Hawthorn
ATS - CATS +12.5 (x1.5) WIN
MARGIN - CATS 1-39 (x1) WIN

Hawthorn will be looking to snap a 0-9 losing run to Geelong here in this big Easter Monday match! The Cats have not lost to the Hawks since the 2008 Grand final! Remarkable. It must be noted that almost all margins in these games were single figures and I expect another close battle again!

Geelong will be without Scarlett who is suspended and are still missing Josh Hunt and Wojo from their back half. But with the likes of Taylor, Lonergan, Enright, Mackie down back they have plenty of experience and leaders to guide the way. Geelongs biggest concern this season will be in the ruck. An area the Cats have gone from very strong to extremely limited. Ottens and Blake retired and now young ruck man Vardy and Simpson are both on the long term injury list. This leave West to carry the load and 29yr old rookie Orren. It is unfair to judge this pair last week against the best in the business Sandilands and will find it much easier today as the Hawks have issues in this department also.

An area of concern for Hawthorn will be Geelongs forward half. Similar to Collingwoods, Geelong has 2 big key forwards that will require watching. But also has some of the best small and mid range forwards in the game. Johnson is a must stop and Chapman is on the verge of one of those 30+ possessions and 4 goal games. The Hawks back six looked ok against the Magpies but still leaked a lot of points. They will find it tough again today.
Overall I have the Hawks favourites but only just. Hodge still out balances out Scarlett missing and while returning from Perth is not ideal for the Cats they are actually 9-0 SU in this spot! I expect another tight fought contest and with fired up Cats side coming off a loss and being labeled "arrogant" the Hawks would want to be on their game! Cats can win this and happy with the 12.5 start. Cats by 2.
(1.5u @ 1.99 @ Pinnacle)
(0.5u @ 3.25 @ Centrebet)

NBA

Chicago Bulls At New York Knicks
ATS - BULLS -2.5 (x2) LOSS
Chicago will welcome back the MVP Derrick Rose back for this match against New York at the Garden! They are well rested and will have far to much talent for the injury it Knicks to contain. While New York has been performing quite well under their interim coach they will fall short here. Still without Stoudamire and Lin as well their depth will be tested. Chicago to win by 12!
(2.1u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

Philadelphia 76ers At Boston Celtics
ATS - CELTICS -4 (x1) WIN
The Celtics are in double revenge here against the 76ers and are full of confidence coming off a win last night. Phili have lost their way since their impressive start to the season and are also on b2b games after a bad loss to the Magic last night. The Celtics are tough to beat at home and with the extra motivation Boston gets the win and covers! Celtics by 10.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

NRL

NRL : 14-9-1 (+5.84u @ 60.9%)
ROUND 6
SUNDAY
Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors
ATS - WARRIORS -2.5 (x1) LOSS

The Raiders just cannot catch a break, they have been hit by injuries yet again! This time Brett White has a season ending knee injury and Thompson will be out for up to a month. This adds to Josh Dugan and Shaun Fensom. To many holes in this Canberra line up to hold out the Warriors here, even at home! Like New Zealand to get back on the winners list and notch up a rare win in Canberra! Warriors by 12.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Sportsbet)

Nth Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm
ATS - STORM -3.5 (x1) WIN

The Storm are in arguably their best form over the past few years right now. Winning all 5 games of 2012. This will be probably their biggest test to date. The Cowboys while have been a bit shaky to start the year, are always dangerous at home. This should be a great match up between both fullbacks Slater v Bowen. The key play makers Thurston and Cronk.

The Cowboys will again be without their leader and enforcer Scott in what is a big hole to fill. Even though the Cowboys were back on the winner list last week, it was against the injury hit Raiders. Although Melbourne lost here in Townsville last year they actually have a remarkable record at Dairy farmers winning 4 of the past 5!

With the big 3 leading the way and a great disciplined game plan, Melbourne will grind out a win here and keep their perfect record in tact! Storm by 8.
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

MONDAY
Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers
ATS - SEA EAGLES -5.5 (x1)
(1.2u @ 1.84 @ Centrebet)

AFL

AFL SUNDAY

GW Sydney @ Nth Melbourne
ATS - GIANTS +76.5 (x1) LOSS

I'm taking the new boys here to again be competitive and keep this one inside 12 goals. The Giants take on the Roos in Tassie which is tipped to be cold, wet and windy. Also being the first time a lot of Norths boys will play here I think the Giants a good chance to keep this game respectable.

The Giants were ok in their opener and have included Scully and Power for this one which will give the yong boys a huge lift. For the Giants controlling the Kangaroos talks will be a tough ask but they may be assisted by the weather in this one. Giants keep it to under 10 goals.
(1.05u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)

Gold Coast @ St.Kilda
2ND H - SUNS +32.5 (x1) LOSS
(Suns down by 41 @ half. GL SUNS +73.5)
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Sportingbet)