NRL

ROUND 1 - SATURDAY

Melbourne @ Canberra
ATS - STORM -4 (x1) WIN

Taking Melbourne to take care of the Raiders for my first selection of the 2012 season! Melbourne have been the bench mark for the competition for the past 5+ years, and while they have had their ups and definite downs I see them being a force once again! With arguably the best spine in the comp 1,6,7,9 in Billy Slater, Cam Smith and Cooper Cronk leading this side and the emergence of Widdop they simply have far to many weapons for the Raiders to contain.

Canberra had a season to forget in 2011 and will be keen to start this year off with a win at home but just have to many questions for mine this early. Campese will play but being his 2nd match in almost 2 years will be rusty! The Raiders do have a huge pack which should set the platform for Dugan and Campo to work but I see this as their downfall also. The Storm will be too quick and with the best play maker leading the way, Smith will pick his moments and expose the big blokes!

In what should be a good match I love the storm to win and cover the 4 here! Storm by 10.
(1.0u @ 2.00 @ Pinnacle)

Canterbury @ Penrith
ML - BULLDOGS PK (x1) WIN
The second of Saturdays triple header I like the Dogs under new Coach Hasler to be to good for the Panthers @ Centrebet stadium tonight! Same story as Canberra for Penrith. They were terrible last year and I expect a strong showing early on especially at home but Canterbury simply has more talent! A fresh voice and with leaders Ennis, Stagg, Tolman and Frank the Tank leading from the front I feel just have to much strike power. Graham is a great buy and he will give plenty once he comes off the bench.

To have a guy like Graham not starting shows the depth at the Bulldogs. Ben Barba is the X factor and he doesn't need much to slip under your guard. There is no question the Bulldogs need more out of their halves and with Hasler knowing Hodkinson very well I think he will get the best out of his young #7! While I expect the Panthers to be up for this one the value is with the Bulldogs at a pick! Dogs by 6.
(1.25u @ 1.83 @ Betfair)

Tomorrow's match
Manly @ NZ
ATS - WARRIORS -3.5 (x1.5)
(1.6u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)
*I know -2.5 is still around at some bookies but to me the that extra point doesn't serve that much difference. As we know key numbers here are 2 & 4. So either way falls into this bracket. How often do you see a game decided by 3? My point is which ever you take it is likely for you to win 4 or more will be the goal! I see value with the -3.5 @ 1.95 over -2.5 @ 1.85.