NRL

ROUND 1 - SUNDAY
MANLY @ NZ
ATS - WARRIORS -3.5 (x1.5) LOSS

I'm really big on the Warriors chances this year and I think they settle a score here against Manly in round 1. In case you didn't hear the Warriors were beaten in last years Grand Final by Manly. Now these Warriors have had a whole off season to think about that, they will be hungry to put that game well behind them and the best way to do that is take out some revenge and win the next chance you play!

Mt Smart is a tough place to play and These Warriors will take pride in defending their home ground. I expect young guns Locke and Johnson to only get better and Friend is a great get as he is just a workhorse!

I'm not sold on Manly for 2012, don't get me wrong I see them as a treat again but maybe a slight slip from their dominance in the last few seasons. A new voice could be a good thing but it may take time to get use too. Manly's prep for this one isn't ideal, having traveled to the UK then back to Aus and now off to NZ. Take the home side to win a cover. Warriors by 8!
(1.6u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)
*I know -2.5 is still around at some bookies but to me the that extra point doesn't serve that much difference. As we know key numbers here are 2 & 4. So either way falls into this bracket. How often do you see a game decided by 3? My point is which ever you take it is likely for you to win 4 or more will be the goal! I see value with the -3.5 @ 1.95 over -2.5 @ 1.85.

NRL

ROUND 1 - SATURDAY

Melbourne @ Canberra
ATS - STORM -4 (x1) WIN

Taking Melbourne to take care of the Raiders for my first selection of the 2012 season! Melbourne have been the bench mark for the competition for the past 5+ years, and while they have had their ups and definite downs I see them being a force once again! With arguably the best spine in the comp 1,6,7,9 in Billy Slater, Cam Smith and Cooper Cronk leading this side and the emergence of Widdop they simply have far to many weapons for the Raiders to contain.

Canberra had a season to forget in 2011 and will be keen to start this year off with a win at home but just have to many questions for mine this early. Campese will play but being his 2nd match in almost 2 years will be rusty! The Raiders do have a huge pack which should set the platform for Dugan and Campo to work but I see this as their downfall also. The Storm will be too quick and with the best play maker leading the way, Smith will pick his moments and expose the big blokes!

In what should be a good match I love the storm to win and cover the 4 here! Storm by 10.
(1.0u @ 2.00 @ Pinnacle)

Canterbury @ Penrith
ML - BULLDOGS PK (x1) WIN
The second of Saturdays triple header I like the Dogs under new Coach Hasler to be to good for the Panthers @ Centrebet stadium tonight! Same story as Canberra for Penrith. They were terrible last year and I expect a strong showing early on especially at home but Canterbury simply has more talent! A fresh voice and with leaders Ennis, Stagg, Tolman and Frank the Tank leading from the front I feel just have to much strike power. Graham is a great buy and he will give plenty once he comes off the bench.

To have a guy like Graham not starting shows the depth at the Bulldogs. Ben Barba is the X factor and he doesn't need much to slip under your guard. There is no question the Bulldogs need more out of their halves and with Hasler knowing Hodkinson very well I think he will get the best out of his young #7! While I expect the Panthers to be up for this one the value is with the Bulldogs at a pick! Dogs by 6.
(1.25u @ 1.83 @ Betfair)

Tomorrow's match
Manly @ NZ
ATS - WARRIORS -3.5 (x1.5)
(1.6u @ 1.95 @ Pinnacle)
*I know -2.5 is still around at some bookies but to me the that extra point doesn't serve that much difference. As we know key numbers here are 2 & 4. So either way falls into this bracket. How often do you see a game decided by 3? My point is which ever you take it is likely for you to win 4 or more will be the goal! I see value with the -3.5 @ 1.95 over -2.5 @ 1.85.

NBA

NBA: 78-75-9 (+8.42u @ 51%)

Memphis Grizzlies At Toronto Raptors
ATS - GRIZZLES -3.5 (x1) LOSS

I like the way Memphis has been traveling lately. Winning 4 of last 5. Rudy Gay is staring while new All Star Gasol is taking his game to another level. I see this as a good match up for Memphis and Gasol in particular. Toronto are not very good. Plain and simple, and without any real presence in the middle with Bargnani out, Gasol will be hard to contain. Toronto will struggle to score tonight up against a great defensive team, Allen will lock down on DeRozan and Memphis will get a win on the road!
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

Miami Heat At Utah Jazz
1ST H - HEAT -2 (x1.5) LOSS

Miami is on fire! This team is running everybody off the court! Even with Bosh missing will be to much for Utah to contain. The Jazz have injury issues of their own as Bell is out and Millsap is doubtful. Bell out is a big hole as he is one who could limit Wades influence. Now not sure who takes Wade and LeBron? These two will do as they please.

Seeing the Heat are on b2b and traveling to Utah a bad spot for any team, I like the Heat in the 1st Half. Fatigue or simple resting of stars may come into play later in the game. Miami also has a big look ahead with the Lakers up next! Miami giving up just a bucket in the 1st half? Yep I'll take it!
(1.65u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

NBA

NBA: 77-75-9 (+7.42u @ 50.7%)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings
ATS - CLIPPERS -3.5 (x1) WIN

The Clippers let yet another big lead slip last start against the TWolves. This has been singled out by both the coach and Chris Paul "We must put teams away and close out games". While being on the wrong side of a few close ones lately, This is just what they do tonight!

I see the Clippers dominating the inside here on both ends. Griffin and Jordan will be to big a task for the emerging Cousins! The Kings are one of the worst teams this year in defending the paint. Both being scored against on the inside and rebounding. An area the Clippers excel in! I see CP3 setting up plenty of easy oportunities for his big men here!
With the recent close losses and a clear message from their coach and new leader, expect a focused side determined to put this game beyond doubt once in control! No more slip ups. Clippers cover!
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)