NBA

NBA: 117-115-10 (+8.23u @ 50.4%)

Boston @ Toronto
ATS - CELTICS -6.5 (x1) LOSS

The Celtics are in terrific form and have forced their way up in the Eastern Conference standings, currently holding onto the 4th seed. However it is extremely tight with Indiana,  Atlanta, Orlando and Phili all fighting for spots 3 through 7. So as with all these contenders every game is a must win from here on out.

Toronto are clearly done for the year and have dropped their past 4 straight. Missing Bargnani hasn't helped matters and the Raptors will feel the pinch again here. Boston are actually on revenge in this one also as Toronto beat them convincingly last time the meet at this very venue. With Boston having some big wins against top tier sides recently they will  need to come out with that same energy and take care of Toronto. With Playoffs in mind and the revenge angle I see no reason why they don't. Celtics win well tonight.
(1.1u @ 1.92 @ Sportsbet)

Phoenix @ Houston
ATS - ROCKETS -3.5 (x1) LOSS

Houston are just clinging on to the 7th seed in the West at the moment sitting just behind Dallas and Memphis and have Denver, Utah and Phoenix on their tail. They must keep winning to hold this spot and these type of home games are a must.

Having returned from a 4-0 road trip with some big wins against the Lakers and Bulls, Houston dropped their first game back home last start against one of their challengers Utah. This can happen on in the first game back from a road trip and the players have clearly recognised that. I suspect they will be highly motivated not to let yet another contender do the same again on their home floor.

With the return of Lowry the rockets now seem a complete team all bar Martin. Lowry working in tandem with Dragic is looking the goods and this will be needed to work over Steve Nash tonight. Also the combination of Scola, Dalembert and Camby down low is a great defensive area. Now with bench contributors in Carson, Lee, Patterson and Buddinger and this Rockets side is deep!

Houston won't loss 3 in a row on their home floor. They cover the 2 buckets against the Suns playing their 3rd game on the road tonight.
(1.1u @ 1.90 @ Betfair)

ADDED
Denver @ LA Lakers
1st Q - LAKERS -1 (x1) WIN
(1.1u @ 1.91 @ Pinnacle)

AFL

AFL : 15-12-0 (+2.45u @ 55.6%)
ROUND 3 - FRIDAY NIGHT

Collingwood v Carlton
ML - MAGPIES (x1) LOSS

I'm taking advantage of Sportsbets "Friday the 13th" offer here that in h2h bets if your team losses by >13 you get your money back. So in effect have a 13pt safety net which I love in this match!

Carlton are flying and the Pies are just going. Well that's the perception out their. Sure the Blues deserve to be favourites here but what have they actually done? Lost all NAB games and beaten Richmond and Brisbane. This is a bit of a step up here. Collingwood themselves haven't set the world on fire, Beating Richmond also and losing to the Hawks in round 1.

The Magpies do bring a few handy players back for this one, Maxwell and Wellingham in particular. Maxwell's leadership shouldn't be underestimated, he is the general down back and when that voice is missing it can affect some players more than you might think. I expect Heath Shaw and Harry O are glad to have their skipper out their this week.

Wellingham just adds more depth to an already deep midfield group. This is area Carlton will struggle to match. Don't get me wrong the Blues top 4 or 5 are top shelf. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Scotland and even Simpson. But its the next 3 or 4 that will struggle to match the Pies depth of Swan, Penddlebury, Thomas, Ball, Wellingham, Sidebottom, Beams and even Shaw. If the Blues can break even  here they will be doing well.

Another area of concern I have is how Carlton stop Cloke and Dawes? sure Jameson is the obvious match up but he is playing his first game back and will get burnt by either! Henderson and Bower? not feeling real confident with either. One other small factor that is in Collingwoods favour is the travel. They haven't had to at all and the Blues are returning from Brissy. Carlton over the past 2 seasons are 2-10 SU against the top 4 sides. Have they taken the next step? I like the Pies to win a close one tonight and are value with the Sportsbet Special!
(1.0u @ 2.06 @ Sportsbet)

OTHER GAMES
*SWANS -13.5 (x2)

and only leans at this stage are
*CROWS +30
*1ST H - CATS -13.5

NRL

NRL : 16-10-1 (+6.80u @ 61.5%)

ROUND 7 - FRIDAY NIGHT

Newcastle @ St.George
ATS - DRAGONS -4 (x1.5) WIN

Newcastle's season so far has not gone to script, 3-3 and siting just inside the top 8. Bad news is they now have to take on the Dragons for the second time this season at WIN Jubilee. Its a tough ask at the best of times but with the Dragons uncharacteristically dropping their past 2 games will be desperate for a win.
Even though the Knights managed to scrap for a win last week against the struggling Eels, it was one of the worst displays i have ever seen! the Knight ball control was dismal. Still with out their leader and star play maker Gidley new castle will struggle to keep up with the Dragons here.
They keys here are Soward and Hornby for mine. These two are a strong pairing and know each others game inside and out. Sowards kicking game will keep Boyd and the other backs in check and I feel the Dragons pack of Weyman, Scott, Creagh and Young will be to much to contain. With Dean Young announcing his retirement, expect this to add that motivation required.
Dragons by 10
(1.65u @ 1.91 @ Centrebet)

OTHER GAMES
*SHARKS -5.5 (x1)
*TIGERS -4 (x1)

NBA

LA Clippers @ Minnesota
ATS - CLIPPERS -5.5 (x2) WIN

The Clippers head to Minnesota tonight on b2b coming off a huge upset win over the leaders of the West OKC! This would have given the younger guys a huge boost of confidence that we belong here and we can match it with anyone on any given night. While b2b road games isn't ideal, Minnesota are in a similar spot.

The Timberwolves are also on b2b games here, returning home from the dreaded Denver trip off a hard fought loss in the end. The Wolves were down 20 at the half and managed to get right back into the game only going down by 6 in the end. All this was without their go to guy. K.Love was concussed late in the 1st quarter and never returned. Huge minutes and effort from Williams, Beasley, Berea and Randolph.
Love is expected to miss tonight which is a massive blow as the Clippers have some of the best big men in the game! of course still without Rubio, Ridnour and Milicic and with the extra minutes for the guys mentioned, this team are in a bad spot returning from altitude. Berea will struggle against CP3 and I expect Paul to have another night out. Blake and DJ wont have Love to contend with either.

Add to all this the Clippers are on triple revenge as remarkably the Wolves have won all 3 meetings so far this season! LA are right in the mix in the West right now and of course every game for them is important and could be the difference between finishing 4th or 7th. Minnesota are playing for nothing and it shows losing 6 in a row. Clippers win big here tonight!
(2.2u @ 1.91 @ Sportingbet)